Chesnara Share Discussion Threads

[brucie5] 15/4/2021 09:32

Makinbuks13 Apr '21 - 11:47 - 1783 of 1786
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As a PI my take is that there's a yield on offer of 7.5% in a life insurance business currently earning next to nothing on the investments its required to hold.
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Makinbuks why 'currently earning nothing...'? Could you please explain?
I hold here.

[panshanger1] 15/4/2021 09:29

Holding sizeable position in LGEN ( ex div today) and PHNX But do like the sector generally

[janhar] 15/4/2021 09:24

Panmures have put a note out today noting that CSNs current 40% discount to NAV is where it was valued at the peak of the financial crisis.

[panshanger1] 15/4/2021 08:36

Surprised this has come back to this level in a generally rising market Back on the watch list !

[makinbuks] 13/4/2021 11:47

Fair enough, the current sluggishness could well be in anticipation of a sizeable sale. As a PI my take is that there's a yield on offer of 7.5% in a life insurance business currently earning next to nothing on the investments its required to hold. If I was retiring I'd put a sizeable chunk here, take 3.5% per anum income and reinvest 4%. I find it difficult to see an economic scenario where that income wouldn't grow in line with inflation over the next (say) 20 years while protecting my capital in real terms as well. It does surprise me there aren't legions of people doing that and pushing the price back towards £4

[frazboy] 09/4/2021 18:49

Anything below say, 280 ish. I'm not saying there isn't value at current levels but I'm happy to wait and see if SLA continue their sell down.

[makinbuks] 09/4/2021 15:59

And as we are around 50p below the immediate pre pandemic price today what would you consider a sensible opportunity?

[frazboy] 09/4/2021 12:31

I'm interested to see if SLA continue their sell down now the results are out of the way. Have exited my position but will re-enter if given a sensible opportunity.

[jonwig] 08/4/2021 17:33

Brucie - I think it's an academic discussion which is interesting!

As for CSN, the term "annuity/annuities" occurs just three times in the final results RNS. It's clearly not material.

[brucie5] 08/4/2021 17:02

Is this a discussion about whether CSN has a long term future?

[fenners66] 08/4/2021 16:20

There are a lot of warnings about uncertainty still put out with drawdown. Which are valid.
But if you spent your whole working life being told to add funds to your pension, that is the "best" place as you get tax relief and you get stock market sized gains.....

Why should the risk be any greater after retirement?
Sure investments can have a bad year, but you could be just as long retired , so the good years balance out the bad.

Simple discipline , withdrawing the average annual return should mean that over time you have your cake (still) and eat it.

After all the years of investment growth are likely to have far outweighed and funds put into the scheme.

[bscuit] 08/4/2021 12:42

I think there is case for using annuities with OAP for a base level of income while Leaving pensions invested (think Inheritance tax avoidance) and using ISAs for flexible investment returns - the ISAs will ultimately be subject to Inheritance tax. I used £350k that way and have £1M still invested in my pension- I have £1.8M Fixed protection and £1M in my ISA.

[williamcooper104] 08/4/2021 12:26

It's fear of the alternatives - many people will sacrifice higher returns for the certainty of a monthly cheque There will always be a demand for annuities; just not the same as was when it was compulsory

[ntv] 08/4/2021 11:33

Not sure I agree, maybe for people on here but the bulk of the population will know no different.
Most people save through their pension pot for retirement
They have no idea about alternatives
I had a small personal pension which I cashed in over 2 years with Aviva
It was going to be worth £4 a month when I got to retirement age
I worked it out that to get anything out of it I would have to live to 104
pointless to a trader like me but to others who don't know what to do, they have no choice but to take an annuity

[janhar] 08/4/2021 11:18

Gone XD well today

[makinbuks] 08/4/2021 10:47

That's a great point Fenners. There was a time when the mortgage market was dominated by endowment policies. I think individual annuities will become similarly rare over the next decade.

[fenners66] 07/4/2021 17:05

Go check the tax treatment of pension funds - perhaps that might help you.
I am quite happy investing in the companies that earn from annuities but will never buy an annuity myself.
Its like bookmakers - you invest in them (e.g.Entain) , not gamble inside them...

[pvb] 07/4/2021 16:50

fenners66 7 Apr '21 - 16:40 - 1767 of 1769

They have actuaries who assess just how many years you are likely to live and pay out some of the fund over time designed to make a profit despite low interest from the gilts they are supposed to invest in.

If you die soon (as the example used above) this will be before their break even point no doubt.

And if you live longer...

Alternatively you remain invested in the stock market - a vehicle that was fit for purpose to create the pension fund in the first place - and start taking an income from this. An assumption could be that you take 4 % pa and still keep the pension fund.

But you take on the mortality risk (plus what if you go gaga?).

Should you die soon the fund gets passed on potentially tax free to your airs NOT the annuity company....

Actually "passed on" to the annuity pooled investment fund...

Not arguing FOR or AGAINST annuities as such, just pointing out that people have, IMO, unreasonably simplistic ideas about this matter.

[williamcooper104] 07/4/2021 16:46

The IHT treatment of pensions is not be underestimated

[williamcooper104] 07/4/2021 16:41

The longtevity risk is only a risk if investment returns are below what's been promised on the annuities That's been a big risk for last 30 odd years as interest rates decline But we are unlikely to see the scale of those moves in future And if rates do meaningfully rise then it's all gravy

[fenners66] 07/4/2021 16:40

They have actuaries who assess just how many years you are likely to live and pay out some of the fund over time designed to make a profit despite low interest from the gilts they are supposed to invest in.

If you die soon (as the example used above) this will be before their break even point no doubt.

Alternatively you remain invested in the stock market - a vehicle that was fit for purpose to create the pension fund in the first place - and start taking an income from this. An assumption could be that you take 4 % pa and still keep the pension fund.
Should you die soon the fund gets passed on potentially tax free to your airs NOT the annuity company....

[fenners66] 07/4/2021 16:33

Its why 5 years ago they changed the law so we do not Have to buy annuities any more.

[pvb] 07/4/2021 16:28

fenners66 7 Apr '21 - 16:19 - 1764 of 1764

"Williamcooper104
7 Apr '21 - 12:27 - 1762 of 1763

Annuities to be fair make sense if you’ve a short expected lifespan at retirement"

Although if you can convince the annuity company that you have a low life expectancy they may well ramp up the payment that still should not make up for the fact that you lose the whole pension pot in return for a fraction of it as income.

That sounds too simplistic a view of how they work, IMO. They have also got to fund those who live longer than expected. Annuities are run by insurance companies for a reason - they are a pooled risk business. Like insurance.

Annuities are designed to favour the annuity provider and they must surely win every time unless you live forever....

Well, gee! Surely that is true with ANYTHING that is on sale? Or ought to be, if whoever they are wishes to stay in business. ;-)

[fenners66] 07/4/2021 16:19

"Williamcooper104
7 Apr '21 - 12:27 - 1762 of 1763

Annuities to be fair make sense if you’ve a short expected lifespan at retirement"

Although if you can convince the annuity company that you have a low life expectancy they may well ramp up the payment that still should not make up for the fact that you lose the whole pension pot in return for a fraction of it as income.

Annuities are designed to favour the annuity provider and they must surely win every time unless you live forever....

Stick to spending the pension from drawdown and benefiting from any investment gains at the same time - rather than giving those as well to the annuity provider

[brucie5] 07/4/2021 12:46

Gosh, we're you a member? I'm sure they're fine people, but I think there's a world of difference between gambling and risk taking. The parable of the talents could be seen as enjoying us to take some measure of risk, with the ultimate risk being not to take any risks at all. So it has proved in my life!
So I'm bound to consider that while all gambling is risk, not all risk is gambling.
CSN is probably a good risk.