Chariot Share Discussion Threads

[jotoha2] 23/4/2018 22:46

There clearly is lots of risk to the share price , especially if you intending to buy before results of the drill , 6p on duster , 30p on hitting the sweet spot , nice odds if you are bookie.

[chestnuts] 23/4/2018 19:44

anthony

I have a another cycle for a farm out of Namibia on the 10th May in 17 days time or so with this cycle its a percentage of 4 yrs so it could be within 2 days or so.

[vikingwarrier] 23/4/2018 17:35

There is no risk at all. We are spending nothing not a penny!

[alexios1201] 23/4/2018 17:28

Mr Hangman is possibly the one who bought at 200p yonks ago and wishing all well...not

[mr hangman] 23/4/2018 17:07

"You make a bet on two outcomes" sounds like 50/50 toss of coin, but it's not really like that

[tunnelking] 23/4/2018 16:59

Hangman ,so if it's s gusher you will leave without trace,never to be heard from again ,if it's a duster you 'hang' around gloating in others loses.you sad sad man haha

[rayrac] 23/4/2018 16:48

I wonder? Means you haven’t a clue.

Those odds are yours..no one else’s, so why should anyone care?! Pathetic creature!

Think we don’t know the risk? Stupid boy.

[mr hangman] 23/4/2018 14:34

To outcomes a gusher 2/10 a duster 8/10 i wonder...

[neo26] 23/4/2018 08:45

Exploration is high risk, this is the aim mkt.Char can take comfort from sdx who have found pockets of gas onshore which is not that far from eni block.

[rayrac] 23/4/2018 07:47

The longer it goes, the shorter the odds. You make a bet on two outcomes..no other nonsense.

[stealbulls] 23/4/2018 01:50

The Saipem 12000, has held a position with DP3, at N34o 24'33 -W07o 24'43 (give or take a tad) since arrival, it was still there 4mins ago. With regard to the rotations (movements) over the last week or so, these are normally consistent with weather movements - if you was to follow the Saipem 10000 which is in the Med held under DP2 the alignments should be near the same with similar weather patterns. It does seem the 12000 is rotating more though, but anyone's guess!.

I live on an Island with strong tidal pattern - to say the Saipem is being pushed around from tidal movement that far offshore does takes some believing.

Hopefully some news next week!. GLA. Steal.

[dmk1198] 22/4/2018 22:44

Drill has moved on apparently40 odd days.. 50/50 /eek

[gunsofmarscapone] 22/4/2018 20:15

Thanks cash, just have to wait and see know. Some periodic adjustments of course, I don’t think tunnel was completely correct in describing investing skill as solely cognitive; a call had to be made on relationship between OPEC and non-OPEC upstream nation states, the relationship between those states and the hydrocarbon consuming world, the final decades of the petroleum age, the unusual feature of US shale being a dynamic swing producer, the reserves replacement ratio at 10-11%, risks of supply disruptions in the context of the, for the moment, proxy wars fought over the Sunni Shiite schism escalating into direct regional power conflict etc etc etc.

One could list from memory I would say 50 or 60 both priority and lesser factors influencing the totality of the upstream oil and gas industry. I think that the skill which we are all working towards is to define those factors, to order them by priority and to make decisions. Only then can a risk managed trading system be invoked.

On the this basis you could say that cognition is a requirement, an attribute that has the utility function of ‘seeing the big picture’.

Only time will tell.

[cashandcard] 22/4/2018 16:39

Although extremely risky, GoM may well have a workable strategy to play AIM oil/gas explorers. A matter of being in the right place at the right time (macroeconomics, sector returning to favour) careful risk management of a capital portfolio and an overall net positive return after the year is churned out. I don't believe last year was a good example, but Malcy's oil bucketlist, in some years gone by, has returned an overall portfolio profit. Which is more to do with a few big wins amongst a heap of losers. Of course, there is the small army of followers who follow his every pick.

CHAR is only worth a race-horse type out and out punt. Once a discovery is confirmed, its a different ballgame altogether.



Cash

[gunsofmarscapone] 22/4/2018 11:06

Viking

Thats fair enough if you can afford it, pure gambling though! atb.

[gunsofmarscapone] 22/4/2018 11:05

Morning Tunnel.

Yes I did have to google it, fair point though; I do not rate my ability in AIM trading and investment as high, there is no evidence for that as I have still only slightly more capital than I started with eight or so years ago. Not only that but only partly responsible for my capital conservation having ‘borrowed̵7; Huygens equations, applied a very simple mathematical term to distribute bets on exploration wells. Not only that but leaning on experience somewhat.

So yes you are correct in observing that cognition is not my only tool so thanks for that.

My ratio system (tm*) allowed for an initial bet on this well however now it has been reduced in proportion to the extended drill time to TD. Also and Fwiw have taken profit (a reasonable one) from MATD for slightly different reasons.

This is a pure punt, GoM mostly patiently accumulates and trades conservatively with a time horizon of 10-15 years with the aim of building large holdings in cash generative companies. Again, not requiring any particular ‘cognitiveR17; traits just discipline.

[rayrac] 22/4/2018 11:03

Crikes! 500k? Makes my 50k look a bit sick! Good luck with that, viking.

[vikingwarrier] 22/4/2018 10:33

Yes of course everyone loves to spend millions on dusters! The odds are on an oil strike. Because there are pockmarks oil shows and 3D seismic which gives a good indication and oh was there pressure when we drilled through the seal? Odds are in our favour and it's why I have 500k shares.

[jotoha2] 22/4/2018 09:43

The odds are still on a duster , buying has been insignificant , and Larry has kept the lid on what is going on at the sharp end , ready to pile in if there is any unusual buying pattern developing this coming week .

[tunnelking] 21/4/2018 17:21

Guns ,and the point of your post is ? sounds like a strong case of Dunning Kruger effect.

[gunsofmarscapone] 21/4/2018 12:30

Morning All

The elongated well operational time in my view is either a negative or at best, equivocal. I have a system for this type of punt and have reduced punt size accordingly.

The aim is to increase holdings in real companies with discoveries, often with actual development plans, partners in risk sharing and banks preparing finance. Rkh for example amongst others.

Dont forget, of they have shows in the shakers then somehow and quite magically it almost invariably leaks out!! All it takes is a spelling ‘error’ in an email or Frank Bauer type transmission.

[jimarilo] 21/4/2018 11:43

Exploration watch

2018 exploration wells

Detailing Rabat and Namibian wells

[rayrac] 21/4/2018 08:25

We shall probably see before the end of next week!