Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[santar] 07/5/2020 00:39

Added. Now just waiting-out the inexorable climb back to 220p... and beyond!

[goldenlady] 06/5/2020 20:52

no posts since April. Is there anyone here? Is this board alive?

[3noddy] 30/4/2020 12:15

“.....There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Central Asia Metals actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 6.6% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It’s worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn’t seem to match with the falling share price.

We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 37% annual rate, so that doesn’t seem to be a reason to sell shares. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Central Asia Metals more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.....”

[lauders] 22/4/2020 02:38

The only thing missing from the above is any mention of CAML! How can that be given its great track record in many ways? Oh well, we just have to wait for Cu to come back into vogue and then we should be set. Happy to see ARS at least get a mention. Invested in them too, but been a very poor investment so far. At least I used to get dividends here. Let the good times come back for all our sakes!

[ember11] 22/4/2020 01:34

The short-term copper price is wavering, but the long-term outlook is more bullish than ever
The near-term copper outlook remains uncertain, but longer-term it's a different story

Antofagasta PLC -
An outright copper bull could point with some optimism towards recent medical evidence published in the New England Journal of Medicine that the coronavirus survives for much less time on copper surfaces than on plastic.

Whether this will have any real impact on demand over the coming months is open to question, but the idea that copper consumption could increase as it gets incorporated into face masks and is built increasingly into new hospital fixtures and fittings is at least a good news story in a market that has faced significant uncertainty over the past month or two.

The copper price dropped by nearly 20% as the coronavirus panic began to spread, although it has since recovered some ground and is currently trading at US$2.31 per pound.

Where it goes from here though is a matter of considerable conjecture, given that the importance of the usual fundamentals in making judgement calls is itself open to question.

Broker Liberum argues, for example, that in the current circumstances for short-term price forecasting it’s preferable to focus on what it calls “high-frequency data”, namely speculative positions and inventories, as opposed to looking out to the usual longer-term factors of supply and demand.

Supply, for example, is currently constrained by a ballpark 25%, as capacity has been cut at major mines the world over. But how long that will last remains an open question. Already South Africa, admittedly not a major copper producer, has eased restrictions on mining operations during its lockdown, and other countries may follow.

Equally, while demand has fallen significantly, it hasn’t yet fallen off a cliff, and there is the welcome, if unpredictable development of China’s ongoing economic re-start to factor in. Will Chinese demand pick up where it left off? The smart money might say no, but against that runs the latest Chinese manufacturing PMI data, which has rebounded and is now at a level roughly comparable with where it was at before the crisis hit.

But that in turn prompts the much broader question, which is being asked the world over, and not just about Chinese copper consumption or PMI data – how much can you trust the Chinese data? And the answer again, is we just don’t know. Generally though, doubt and trust don’t go together.

So what can be said positively about the copper market?

The first thing is that the share prices of the major producers have bounced back, not quite to where they were before the crisis, but at least to comparable levels. Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) is now trading at just above its 2019 low, after having risen by more than 20% over the past month. Glencore (LON:GLEN) and Kaz Minerals (LON:KAZ) haven’t done quite as well, but it does seem as though the worst of the initial shock is now over.

Second, inventories in exchanges and Chinese bonded warehouses are lower than their seasonal averages, meaning that with mines producing at just 75% of capacity there’s likely to be some near-term tightness in supply.

Set that against a drop-off in demand the global economy slows. In particular, analysts have tended to look at investment in real estate and power plants in China as a guide, and these, unsurprisingly, are both down.

On the other hand, the Chinese credit markets are open and may yet succeed in propping things up. Finally, short positions in the markets are declining, meaning both that sentiment is improving, at least relatively, and that current pricing may be more pegged to fundamentals than it’s possible to show.

Liberum remains cautious, however.

“For the copper price we are expecting a small improvement in the second half of the year to $2.50 per pound as the global economy recovers,” the broker says, noting the double digit hits this is likely to involve for the major producers.

But what about the longer-term?

One line of thinking has it that the current disruption will end up being bullish for the long-term since pre-crisis forecasts were already predicting a doubling of demand by 2030. Those forecasts were based partly on the new demand from electric vehicles, and more generally on ongoing economic growth from China and elsewhere.

But with mines shut down and investment being withheld, the likelihood of the industry being able to boost capacity to meet that demand becomes open to question.

It’s on that basis that at the smaller end of the mining market entrepreneurs like Colin Bird are actively seeking out new copper deals in tried and tested mining jurisdictions like Zambia. One of his vehicles, Galileo Resources (LON:GLR) already has a significant footprint in the country, albeit in zinc. But a move to copper may not be long in coming, perhaps from another of his companies, Xtract Resources (LON:XTR) which already owns a small copper project at Eureka, also in Zambia.

Elsewhere, Kavango Resources (LON:KAV), Metal Tiger (LON:MTL) and Power Metal Resources (LON:POW) all look well positioned in Botswana, while Asiamet (LON:ARS) looks set fair in Indonesia, and Alien Metals (LON:UFO) similarly in Australia.

“If the chartists are right about the demand, I don’t know where the supply is coming from,” says Colin Bird.

“By 2021 and 2022 there’s going to be an insatiable demand for copper. I think the risk-reward of copper is tremendous. Gold may go up and may go down, but copper is easy sums, you don’t have to go to Harvard to know supply won’t meet demand.”

[ember11] 22/4/2020 01:31

Worth a read:
[...]

[fardels bear] 21/4/2020 17:24

A football chant, is that?

[constable ken] 20/4/2020 09:00

Masurenguy's a *anke*

[masurenguy] 20/4/2020 08:00

Positive news !

20 April 2020
CENTRAL ASIA METALS PLC

Kounrad Production Milestone

CAML is pleased to announce that, on 18 April 2020, the Kounrad copper recovery plant in Kazakhstan ('Kounrad') reached the milestone of producing 100,000 tonnes of copper cathode. CAML expects to produce copper at Kounrad until 2034. Since CAML's leaching operations began in April 2012, Kounrad has achieved the following milestones through producing copper from what was considered waste: 100,000 tonnes of copper cathode have been produced to date at Kounrad at a C1 cash cost of production averaging $0.55 per pound (2012 - 2019)

Nigel Robinson, Chief Executive Officer, commented: "We are delighted to have reached this significant milestone of producing 100,000 tonnes of copper from Kounrad at costs that are amongst the lowest in the world. While cases of COVID-19 continue to rise in Kazakhstan, there are currently no diagnosed cases of the virus amongst our Kounrad workforce or in the local town of Balkhash, and the production and sales of our copper have not been interrupted. Our operations at the Sasa mine in North Macedonia also continue uninterrupted. We have recently committed to providing funding for an electrical supply solution to the local Balkhash hospital, which should help the healthcare teams maintain crucial medical treatments in the case of power outages. During this difficult and uncertain time, the welfare of our employees and contractors is our top priority."

[amunro] 09/4/2020 14:09

I am sure it will drop back again. Trouble is there are loads of mining companies on the stock market and the good ones get lost in the crowd. Some of these companies only have the rights to mine in a certain areas and are not even producing. So what I am trying to say is there is loads of miners and the bad ones or one not even producing ones bring the good ones down.

[ayl30] 09/4/2020 13:04

Woke up this am thinking of buying here. Got tied up and didn't do it! That cost me 10% profit

[shieldbug] 09/4/2020 12:05

Pughman - This question is answered in the results presentation. They came into the period with £32m cash. Current burn rate including debt repayment is £14m/month. They believe they could reduce this to £8m/month. So if both mines were shutdown at the same time they could last 4 months before running out of money.

My guess is that Sasa is most likely to have issues. From memory, they truck concentrate through Bulgaria to smelters in Turkey. I would expect this route to close at some point and Sasa has about 1 months worth of storage facilities for concentrate, though the company may be able to find somewhere off site to store concentrate.

Kounrad has storage facilities for 5,000 tons of copper. So if the border was shut they could carry on producing.

If Sasa closes and Kounrad continues operating, Kounrad on its own can service the debt.

They say they are having weekly calls with the banks and there are options for refinancing to ease the debt issue if needed.

[pughman] 09/4/2020 10:44

warranty, I don't disagree, but how long do you think CAML could survive if both mines and all borders were closed. Also director purchase were made recently which were fairly anaemic. I'd expect them to be making larger buys, if CAML is the bargain which we hope it is.

[warranty] 09/4/2020 10:28

Patience is needed here. This is a good company with excellent management and products that are all in demand. I’m down overall Like others but not even slightly worried and certainly not selling but looking to add more on further weakness. Mining will always be wavy but adding whilst it’s this price or lower will easily pay off for me in due course.

[pughman] 09/4/2020 08:46

Another good RNS, but then they always are. Let's hope after Covid-19 shareholders get some reward for what has been a depressing couple of years.

[masurenguy] 09/4/2020 07:51

Positive Update !

Q1 2020 operational highlights

- Production and sales unaffected by COVID-19 pandemic
- No lost time injuries ('LTIs') at either operation
- Kounrad copper production, 3,201 tonnes
- Sasa zinc in concentrate production, 6,127 tonnes
- Sasa lead in concentrate production, 7,607 tonnes

Outlook

Production currently on track to meet full year 2020 guidance for copper, zinc and lead
o copper, 12,500 - 13,500 tonnes
o zinc, 23,000 - 25,000 tonnes
o lead, 30,000 - 32,000 tonnes

Global health, metal price and economic uncertainty remains regarding COVID-19 pandemic

[skeptic1] 06/4/2020 11:31

Have topped up myself. The conference call was very reassuring and confidence building.

[masurenguy] 06/4/2020 07:55

Two directors invest £100,000 to top up their shareholdings !

[skeptic1] 02/4/2020 10:11

When will the bleeding stop?!?