Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[melody9999] 02/8/2019 10:07

I asked the company about the political situation in Kazakhstan and the change in president. Here is their reply:

"I can confirm that there have been no adverse impacts to our operations or financial performance in Kazakhstan since the change of leadership. We do not see this as likely, although we make sure we keep abreast of current issues with both in-country contacts and with political risk management research that we read here in the UK."

[3noddy] 01/8/2019 10:38

“Roskill believes that world total copper consumption might exceed 43Mt by 2035, implying per capita consumption of 5.0kg by that date. Driven by population and GDP growth, urbanisation and electricity demand, applications utilising copper’s excellent electrical and heat transfer properties will account for the overwhelming proportion of all volume growth. Electric vehicles and associated network infrastructure are just one facet of this and may contribute between 3.1-4.0Mt of net growth by 2035.”

[mount teide] 31/7/2019 10:23

Copper industry major Glencore today reported a 2% fall in Q2 copper production and cut its full-year production guidance for the metal by 1%, citing problems at its copper business in Africa.

Glencore produced 342,300 tons of copper in the three months ended June 30, compared with 350,800 tons in Q2/2018.

The mining company also reported total coal production during the second quarter rose 12% to 35 million tons. (That will please the climate change industry!)

CEO Ivan Glasenberg said the copper business in Africa had not met expected performance in H1/2019 and that the company has moved to address challenges at its Katanga mine in the Congo and brought forward maintenance of the smelter at the Mopani mine located in Zambia to the end of 2019.

[3noddy] 23/7/2019 07:48

Interesting study on EV’s, (published July 2019)



“New taxes should be designed smartly so they drive the uptake of those electric vehicles that deliver the highest environmental benefit, whilst also
ensuring equity and stimulating carmakers to overachieve on their EU targets. Simultaneously the EU should spearhead an electric recharging masterplan to ensure interoperable recharging infrastructure is rolled out across the EU, notably at home, in the workplace, in urban areas and on all of Europe’s key roads.”

[mount teide] 22/7/2019 08:53

Since the US Fed recently intimated a complete change of interest rate policy direction with possibly two interest rate cuts by year end the Baltic Dry Index, the Global Shipping Industry Index that measures the demand for and cost to move commodities around the world - over 90% of all dry commodities see the inside of a bulk carrier's cargo holds at some point between the producer and buyer/consumer - has been on tear.

Another day another new 5 year high for the Baltic Dry Index which continues to power ahead, surging a further 40 points(1.88%) today to reach 2,170 - extending its incredible winning streak to 23 days in 24.

The BDI is up an astonishing 104.3% over the last 24 days, +264.7% from Zero Hedge's 'armageddon call for the industry and global economy' Feb 2019 higher low (CAGR of 635%), and +628% since the H1/2016 commodity/shipping market cycle recession low.

The good news? The BDI today is still trading at barely 50% of its 10 year inflation adjusted mean and just 18.4% of its inflation unadjusted previous market cycle high.

With most of the dry bulk global fleet now operating in the spot market, the extremely strong recent performance of the BDI is now starting to feed through into industrial metal pricing and the valuations/market performance of dry bulk ship owners/operators and global shipbrokers, whose valuations traditionally lag strong upward movement of the BDI by 3-6 months.

[lauders] 20/7/2019 01:18

Some nice points re: Cu in this piece:

Good excerpts include:

1) The higher copper prices are only the matter of time now with FED stepping on the accelerator again. Inflation is already raising its head thanks to the tariffs and the real future prices for commodities are only masqueraded by the trade war's headlines - but not for long anymore. The best cure for low prices is the low price.

2) New copper mines are not coming online with copper prices below $3/lb. Just note on the chart below how projects NPV and IRR are vaporising with copper prices below $3/lb.

3) The coming gaps between the copper demand which is driven by the exponential growth in sales of electric cars and renewable energy installations and supply which is still coming mostly from major copper mines which are more than 75 years old will shock the system. Price shocks are imminent.

There are some nice graphics to illustrate the points too.

Let's see if it all pans out as speculated in the article. If so CAML and ARS (I hold both) should benefit accordingly.

[mount teide] 16/7/2019 11:21

The Baltic Dry Index set yet another 5 year high today, surging a further 63 points(3.63%) to reach 1,928 - extending the winning streak to 19 up days in 20.

The BDI is up 82.1% over the last 20 days, 224.9% from the Feb 2019 higher low, and 547% since the H1/2016 shipping market cycle recession low.

Economic factors that are influencing the current movement of the BDI include:

* Supply, demand, and prices of bulk dry commodities.
* Supply and capacity of global dry bulk fleet
* Health of the world’s economy and overall market sentiment.
* Crude oil prices and the resulting cost of bunker fuel.
* Preparation for the implementation of the IMO 2020 Shipping Fuel Regs
* Seasonality in the transport of commodities.
* Port congestion
* Geopolitical events, labour issues, weather, and accidents in exporting and importing countries.

[coxsmn] 10/7/2019 14:45

Nice rise, we are well below fair value at the moment.

[capercaillie] 10/7/2019 10:41

Net debt down since year end

[coxsmn] 10/7/2019 09:08

Very pleasing update this morning with robust production figures. The current share price and dividend yield look very attractive here.Today's Telegraph includes coverage of the mining sector and highlightd the growing demand for copper.

[mount teide] 10/7/2019 08:55

Another highly reliable H1 production performance - something investors have come to expect with almost boring regularity from this management since Kounrad went into production in 2012 - after completing construction of the production facility ahead of schedule and under budget.

Production Performance: H1/2019 v H1/2018

-2.0% / Copper
+5.0% / Zinc
-0.3% / Lead

In Copper equivalent terms H1/2019 production is virtually identical to H1/2018

Despite a period of softer metal pricing good to see net debt continue to drop over the last 6 months from circa $110m to circa $94m

[zangdook] 10/7/2019 08:12

That's the one.

[zangdook] 10/7/2019 07:56

I never understand these people who just have to cut and paste things when they don't have any comment to make. How much time is cumulatively wasted scanning their posts just to find there's nothing there we haven't already read in the RNS? It's like having a roundtable conversation where there's one idiot who keeps interrupting to read his Janet and Jim book out loud.

[pol123] 10/7/2019 07:50

All numbers looking good and on track

[lord gnome] 10/7/2019 07:23

Update out this morning. Steady as she goes, it would seem. Nothing there to scare the horses, or the markets, so hopefully we should see a steadier share price. Buying opportunity at these levels? I seem to be seeing a lot of those recently.

[simplemilltownboy] 09/7/2019 16:32

Feel I gave this share the kiss of death yesterday when I said I bought some more Sorry, I will keep my mouth shut in future. Just noticed KAZ is down by a similar percentage today. The ops update should calm nerves hopefully. GLA

[leopoldalcox] 09/7/2019 16:25

Zinc at 6 month low

[pol123] 09/7/2019 16:06

Had to get some more today. CAML is excellently managed and lower quartile production costs. There will be plenty of other miners that feel the pain first

[pughman] 09/7/2019 10:26

If they cut the interim dividend like the final, the market won't be happy. The finance costs went up in the second half last year, even though the debt went down, compared to the first half. Any ideas?

[mysteronz] 09/7/2019 09:02

A frustrating share given the metal fundamentals but the divi is a great consolation!

[linton5] 09/7/2019 09:02

I’m expecting q2 results tmmw or Thursday for sure

[eeza] 09/7/2019 08:35

New 2 year low.