Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[plasybryn] 18/8/2019 10:35

It's a shame because this was such a steady and stable growth stock with a nice dividend. The CEO has been held in high esteem, yet I agree it lost its mojo over a year ago. I haven't been invested for some time but liked to trade it for the dividend. I have no idea why it has apparently become such good value (P/E of 7 and yield over 8%) as I don't follow it that closely now, but I sure the future for copper idc is bright.
In these very uncertain times, gold looks good as a safe have, so stocks like AAU and AAZ might be of interest. Both profitable with strong stories. AAZ is a yielder as well. There are lots of others like HGM & HUM or a fund like GPS. And with mass electrification coming other commodity stocks should do well in time. Nickel, Cobalt etc. Perhaps diversification is the order of the day. Investors appear very excited about the coming news (West Newton discovery etc.) at RBD & UJO by the way. (Oilers)

[bob_rjp] 18/8/2019 09:33

I've been a holder here on and off since March 2018 and I have to say for pretty much the whole of that time the share price has done nothing but steadily deteriorate from 300+ to 180 today. Managed a brief recovery to about 260 in May 2019, but been going downhill fast since then.

However with a likely recession coming I dont see the outlook for this, or any other mining or commodity stocks, to be other than pretty negative myself. Now just maybe the best strategy IS to accumulate at these lower levels and wait (and wait and wait) for the recovery. But personally I practice capital preservation with my investments and if something incurs a significant loss in total return terms and / or doesnt perform in a decent timescale then I believe that its time to cut your losses and move on. So personally I plan to sell all my commodity investments this week (CAML included) and invest elsewhere. (Not as significant as it may sound as I deliberately keep my holding sizes small to prevent significant losses on any one investment.)

Now clearly there are many on the board with very long term views, significant holdings and enthusiasts for the company and good luck to you all. But I shall be watching from the sidelines.

[mount teide] 17/8/2019 10:25

KS - CAML first started talking to the owners of SASA in late 2016, agreed a price for the business in very early 2017 and completed the deal some 9 months later.

In early 2017 the price of Lead, Zinc and copper were similar to the average spot price of the three metals over the last three months.

The price paid for SAS was largely based on the business performance of the SASA mine during 2016 - when all three metals averaged prices well below that of 2017. The acquisition price paid was a 100% premium to the price the previous owners acquired the mine for some 18 months earlier.

[pol123] 17/8/2019 09:30

If you overlay historic CU & CAML price we should be trading ~£2.30. Apart from being technically oversold. Looks like we have priced in a case for CU at ~$1.80 per lb. Did not look at lead / zinc correlation

[bishan bedi] 16/8/2019 14:07

hi gents. I like the look of the assets and numbers here, but have an innate fear of the 'stans.

Do the company have anything special in place (politicians in pockets etc) to mitigate political risk and allay my fears?

[king suarez] 16/8/2019 14:01

MT,

CAML purchased SASA in Nov 2017, when the zinc price was c40% higher, and lead price 15-20% higher, copper also about 20% lower presently, so isn't it the case that the market (cap) is just reflecting fall in all commodities?

No doubt cheap based on free cash flow, and maybe valued on pessimistic forward metals pricing, but you can't logically argue that the copper is priced in for free now, based on a valuation of SASA at a time when metals were much higher priced?

[mount teide] 16/8/2019 10:35

Company is presently valued at less than it paid for SASA, which the market considered a very competitively priced acquisition.

Effectively, the huge cash generating, low operating cost and ultra low maintenance Capex Kounrad asset is currently being thrown in for free!

Over a 3-5 year outlook, at the present valuation, CAML has got to be among the most outstanding investment prospects in the sector.

Have been materially adding to my holding over the last week.

[pol123] 15/8/2019 22:18

The longer CU price remains depressed the greater the spike up. Just because we have a rough couple of months does not mean we are down and out, by any means. We are a very low cost producer

[danieldruff2] 15/8/2019 20:31

From the business perspective there are 13 years left for revenues from Kounrad to pay for expansion of the business before the copper is mined out. I would view falling copper prices as reducing the chance of this becoming a proper diversified miner, rather than obsess on the dividend. The raw facts are, 22 years of copper from Kounrad, 9 years down, one business bought, 13 years to go. That may seem like a long time but having first bought here in 2010 it feels a little closer now!

[briggs1209] 15/8/2019 19:49

Great as the current price is I am very overweight here. If (big if) metal prices fall and the dividend goes to 14p then I would see capitulation give a yield of 10% - that gives us a low price of 140p - which we saw about 3 years ago.

That might seem unduly pessimistic but RDSB hit 14 quid in 2016 so strange things can happen.

[arf dysg] 15/8/2019 17:20

topazfrenzy, you said you were going to buy at 180p, so what's stopping you?

[topazfrenzy] 15/8/2019 12:07

£1 coming here if we get a global recession so be careful, stick to gold and silver miners like FRES

[king_baller] 15/8/2019 12:01

I added to my already large CAML position today. This is a pancycle company. If there is a major commodity crash a lot of miners will go bust, and undeveloped companies won’t be able to get funding. Low cost producers will continue as normal, and reap the benefits when the supply collapses and prices shoot up.

[pol123] 15/8/2019 11:59

Sensible thing is to sit tight, doing nothing. Seen it all before.

On the plus side, we may be able to pick up a cheap asset, fingers crossed

[pol123] 15/8/2019 11:43

Thinking of offloading other stock, however all well under water and have potential. Arrrgghhhhh........conundrum

[the deacon] 15/8/2019 11:26

Call me a contrarian, but I've bought some more....again..

[andyj] 15/8/2019 11:26

A real race to the exit here, but remember, volatility is opportunity.

[shortarm] 15/8/2019 10:37

Everything is today!

[joan of arc] 15/8/2019 10:36

Well this is getting totally creamed

[pol123] 14/8/2019 21:28

We have lost around 1/3 of our value since April. How low will a recession take us. Feels like we have just about priced one in now.

Any thoughts on the subject

[lauders] 14/8/2019 12:14

To balance my previous post and make for the bull case you have other articles like this one:

While it is a known fact that electric vehicles (EVs) use about four times more copper than gasoline-powered vehicles, short-term demand for the metal won’t come from the car industry, but from the charging stations and related infrastructure needed to support EV growth, a new study shows.

[lauders] 14/8/2019 12:00

When you read such articles as the one below the weakness here is understandable. Will it remain like this? Perhaps for a while, but it will turn. CAML have been a dependable income provider in the past during weakness and they know doubt will continue to be unless a major acquisition has to be taken into account. The M&A news should be getting nearer here I would think.

[mount teide] 13/8/2019 09:35

Going by the average spot price performance of the three metals in H1/2019 compared to H2/2018 - i would expect the dividend to be held - as CAML should have generated very strong cash flow in H1/2019.


Compared to H2/2018, the average copper and zinc price was slightly higher in H1/2019 and the lead price slightly lower.

[pughman] 12/8/2019 21:56

With their stated dividend policy I'd expect a dividend cut.