Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[garycook] 31/3/2019 00:54

Cannot understand then why CAML as gone down from the 250,s when other Miners are rising ? Frustrating holding CAML atm ! It should be in the 260,s at least.Hopefully results on Wed 10/04 will bring good news !

[mount teide] 30/3/2019 11:57

Zinc continues to make higher highs - the intra day price on Friday for the first time in 10 months hit $2,940 some 27% up from the September 2018 low, and 92% up from the previous cycle low in Q1/2016.

[podgyted] 29/3/2019 17:36

Well that was a weird day - copper and zinc up CAML down.

[mount teide] 25/3/2019 08:50

There has been two US recessions this century - 2001 and 2008/9 both had inverted yield curve signals prior to occurring.

In the former the copper market had just bottomed after a 8 year decline/recession, while during the latter it was close to the peak of a long recovery/boom stage of the market cycle.

Between 2000 and 2003 the Dow dropped 42% and was still in correction territory more than 20% down by 2006.

In 1999/2000, the Fed ignored the record high stock market and continued raising interest rates to a 6.5% peak in May 2000, when the economy needed low rates for cheap credit.

The recession was caused by a boom and subsequent bust in dot-com businesses. The boom was partially created by the Y2K scare in 2000. Companies bought tens of $billions worth of new software because they were afraid the old systems weren't designed to transition from the 1900s to the 2000s. But most dot-com businesses were significantly overvalued and failed. The 9/11 attack worsened the recession

2000-2006 - Copper, similar to today, was in a completely counter market cycle trend to the wider economy and traded on its fundamentals - it never fell at all during this period and was up 498% by 2006, before reaching an all-time high in 2010, whereupon copper commenced a 7 year decline/recession, bottoming in 2016.

Copper junior Oxiana Metals was the star performer - market cap went from $3m to $6bn (up 2,000 fold) during 2000-2007 - the former management's vehicle for the recovery stage of this new copper market cycle is Asia Met Resources.

[pol123] 24/3/2019 21:03

Inverted yield curve!

Not sure how this is going to play out, but will surely cast a shadow over copper IMHO. Any thoughts

[arf dysg] 22/3/2019 15:18

Masurenguy (2698) "Buy Rec out today with a target price of 310p"

For a moment my eyes nearly popped out of my head until I realised that I was no longer on the ARS board (shares around 7p each, medium-term targets in the region of 20p).

[mount teide] 21/3/2019 10:02

Zinc hit $2,900 for the first time in 9 months this morning, while Copper is flirting with $3.00 again.

Industrial metal performance post the 2018 Autumn Low(first correction in this new commodity market cycle since the H1/2016 decade low):

+25.9% - Zinc
+17.3% - Copper
+11.1% - Lead


Performance post the H1/2016 Decade Low:

+87.9% - Zinc
+53.8% - Copper
+33.9% - Lead


Upside from today needed to match the previous cycle 2008-2010 inflation UNADJUSTED peak prices:

+58.2% - Zinc
+52.7% - Copper
+71.2% - Lead

Never underestimate the power of long term cyclical markets in the early years of a new recovery stage, where historically it usually takes 2-3 years of commodity price recovery from the decade low before the associated commodity equities(miners) start to catch a bid and take off.

[masurenguy] 20/3/2019 13:02

Peel Hunt have a Buy Rec out today with a target price of 310p.

[mount teide] 19/3/2019 21:19

Antofagasta expects copper deficit of up to 300,000 tonnes this year - Mining.com

Chilean miner Antofagasta expects the anticipated global copper deficit to hit between 100,000 and 300,000 tonnes this year as consumption growth remains positive, but production increases are minimal.

Releasing the company’s annual results, chief executive Iván Arriagada also revealed that the first phase of a planned expansion at its flagship Los Pelambres copper mine had been approved, as widely anticipated.

Construction has begun and first production is expected around mid-2021, with capex forecast to be $1.3 billion, which includes $500 million for a 400-litre per second desalination plant and water pipeline that will supply the water requirements of the expansion and, potentially, future ones, Antofagasta said.

Phase 1 of the expansion, the miner added, will increase annual copper production by 40,000 tonnes in the first, reaching 70,000 tonnes towards the end of the first 15 years.

The company, majority-owned by Chile's Luksic family, said it is planning to expand its Centinela mine by building a new concentrator at an estimated cost of $2.7 billion.

“During 2018 the company considered two growth alternatives for Centinela: the construction of a second concentrator, and the expansion of the existing concentrator,” it said.

“Following a detailed evaluation of the two alternatives it has been decided to progress the studies on a second concentrator, as this alternative has the best combination of financial returns and risk profile.”

While it’s a more costly option, the new concentrator will help Antofagasta produce an extra 180,000 tonnes of copper per year.

The miner noted it expected to complete a feasibility study on the project in 2020.

In addition, Antofagasta plans to move forward with a feasibility study for the Twin Metals Minnesota project, a copper, nickel and platinum deposit.

Annual copper output rose 3% to 725,300 tonnes of copper and came in at the higher end of Antofagasta’s forecast, as its Centinela mine produced better quality ore and higher output.

This was after the company had to cut its 2018 production guidance in October, hurt by demand disruptions for the metal, caused by top consumer China's trade war with the United States.

The miner also declared a bumper dividend for 2018 on the back of record output and asset sales, which sent its shares soaring to a seven-month high.'

[mount teide] 19/3/2019 20:15

Lol - very good.

[arf dysg] 19/3/2019 17:34

Mount Teide, that scurrilous rumour of a president who wanted total support reminds me of the James Bond film Licence to Kill.


It's an exchange between President Hector Lopez and drug lord Franz Sanchez:

President Hector Lopez: There has been a mistake with my cheque. Look at it! It's *half* the usual amount.
Franz Sanchez: You were very quiet when I was arrested. Remember, you're only president... for life.

[mount teide] 19/3/2019 15:39

"He won 97.7 percent of the vote in the last presidential election in 2015"

There was apparently no truth to the scurrilous rumour sweeping Astana at that time that he was demanding the names and addresses of the 2.3% of the electorate who refused to support him in order to offer them free re-education training.

As former Soviet satellite era leaders go Nazarbayev is one of the few to stand up to Putin.

What he cannot be excused for is though is covertly authorising the running of a performance enhancing drug programme for the Nation's Cycling, Boxing and Olympic Weightlifting teams that makes the Soviet system and Lance Armstrong crew look like choir boys by comparison.

All 5 of their London and Beijing Olympic Gold Medalists saw their doping samples from those Games recently produce a positive result on retesting with a new test an order of magnitude more sensitive at identifying the use of anabolic steroids.

It included the 'Lance Armstrong' of the sport, 29 year old Ilya Ilyin, the double olympic, six time world champion and multiple world record holder who is undefeated in all National and International competition in the sport since the age of 7. Nazarbayev used to pay Ilyin US$250,000 for every Olympic and World Championship Gold Medal he won and World Record he broke. He weighs around 10 stone less than the very best superheavyweights of the sport but can very nearly outlift them.

Weighing just 104kg - he makes 246 Kg/541 lbs/ 38.6 stone look child's play as he banks another $250,000 for 3 seconds work - such is the effect of one in a billion genetics and an industrial scale programme of anabolic steroids in the winter/off season

[arf dysg] 19/3/2019 14:08

This is from the Turkish state news agency:

hxxps://www.dailysabah.com/asia/2019/03/19/kazakhstans-president-nazarbayev-resigns-after-three-decades-in-power

[zangdook] 19/3/2019 13:41

Nazarbayev resigns. I haven't found any explanation.

[mount teide] 19/3/2019 11:41

A recent Wood Mac research paper for the Lead mining industry published in Jan 2019 contained the following Car Industry forecast data:

By 2025:
85% of all new car production will still be ICE - after which it will decline around 1.3% p.a. through to 2035, when ICE cars will still generate 70% of all new car production

By 2035:
70% (1.05 billion) of all cars on the World's roads will still be ICE.

While copper demand for the EV industry will grow exponentially over the next 15 years - Wood Mac are suggesting that the ICE and demand for oil will remain the overwhelmingly dominant factor driving car production until probably close to the second half of this century.

[dontsweatit] 14/3/2019 10:37

DontSweatIt
9 May '18 - 19:23 - 1683 of 2688 Edit
0 0 0
I'm a Buyer at these levels, ive have been hoping for a pull back,yet accept it may go lower yet so scaling in, Been in cash for a while
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

It hasnt gone quite to plan but not many Co's like this about with quality so happy to slowly add at these levels

[mount teide] 13/3/2019 13:54

Zinc breaks out to a 10 month high.

Lead and Copper consolidating very close to recent 9 month highs.

[mount teide] 05/3/2019 18:54

February stock on loan report published today shows a further month on month reduction of 470,000 shares to 0.98% - don't fight the market, let the trend be your friend!

[v11slr] 02/3/2019 18:20

I'd ignore the Anglo American figure as I recall it's a consequence of the way Anil Agarwal of Vedanta built his stake. Too long ago to remember the details I'm afraid.

[mount teide] 02/3/2019 11:32

Current Short Positions - from Euroclear's latest monthly stock on loan report:

1.24% - CAML
1.88% - Glencore
3.12% - Kaz Minerals
3.57% - Rio Tinto
5.29% - Barrick
7.16% - BHP Billiton
7.85% - Antofagasta
24.4% - Anglo American

[dogwalker] 01/3/2019 17:06

A curious-looking end-of-day UT pricing. Never mind .

[3noddy] 28/2/2019 08:59

Sharp drop in LME Zinc stocks this morning, down 9000 tonnes to 69000.

[3noddy] 28/2/2019 08:44

Zinc supply and demand forecast for 2019
There’s no ignoring that the past few months have been grim for zinc, but underneath this trade war negativity is a growing supply crunch that’s likely to cut through the concerns in the long run. The past few years have seen several large zinc mine closures due to depleted reserves. According to Ioannou, the global zinc market has lost somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 to fifteen percent of its supply in recent years. There has been little in the way of new zinc development or discoveries to balance out that loss of supply. Zinc inventories in London and Shanghai show supply dropping by 2,000 to 3,000 tonnes per day, signaling the likelihood of a future spike in value.

Contributing significantly to zinc supply issues is an ongoing environmental crackdown in China. In recent years, the Chinese state has been taking active measures to combat the rampant pollution problem that plagues the country. These measures have included strict regulations on mining operations, with many operations forced to shut down if they can’t afford to meet the new standards. Eleven Chinese zinc producers were forced to close down in 2016 with more still in 2017 and continuing into 2018. This was due in part to zinc’s short-term downslide, as well as the Chinese state thus far holding firm on its newfound environmental mindset.

Despite appearances, demand for the base metal has not gone anywhere, and won’t go anywhere in the foreseeable future. According to FocusEconomics’; September consensus report, resilient demand and healthy activity in the manufacturing and construction sectors will likely keep zinc prices afloat going forward in the near term. Steel galvanization, the traditional source of zinc demand, has not been slowed by the trade war. Additionally, new sources of zinc demand have taken hold in recent years. The ongoing shift to electric vehicles and other market trends involving lithium-ion batteries are causing battery demand to skyrocket. This is a trend that will only gain more momentum in the coming years, driving demand for a range of battery and base metals involved in the batteries’ construction including zinc. There is also new demand emerging from the agricultural sector as zinc is also used as an additive in fertilizer.

“Companies developing and exploring for zinc deposits today are well positioned to benefit from the potential growth of zinc demand through consumption related to fertilizer and batteries, primarily,” Bill Williams, interim CEO at Zinc One Resources (TSXV:Z,FWB:RH33,OTCMKTS:ZZZOF), told INN. “First movers in this space are likely to be rewarded.”

The primary demand driving the zinc market, however, will always be urban development, and that development is definitely not slowing. Cities around the globe are rapidly expanding, especially in the developing world. Places that were once relatively agrarian population centers are quickly urbanizing. This means the construction of buildings, transportation infrastructure, electrical grids and more. All of these developments require tons upon tons of steel and all of that steel would be worthless within months of installation without galvanization with zinc.

Takeaway
While external political factors have made the latter half of 2018 extremely tough on zinc, the base metal is simply too essential for the market to stay down for long. Zinc demand will stay reliably strong as urbanization continues to expand, battery metal demand grows and new sources of demand have a greater market impact. A zinc supply shortage will become increasingly likely as recently lost producers fail to be replaced. Meanwhile, zinc mining companies will reap the benefit.

hxxpS://investingnews.com/innspired/zinc-supply-demand-forecast/

[mount teide] 26/2/2019 18:45

After falling for 6 months, open interest copper contracts are on a rising trend again.

Additionally, last week a total of 703,787 contracts of COMEX copper futures were traded which is the highest level since August 2018. Rising volume and price tend to be a technical validation of a bullish price trend.

The current copper price rally comes at a time when stockpiles at the world's two leading copper exchanges are now close to their decade lows.

LME stocks were at 133,825 metric tons as of February 22, while in March 2018, inventories were at 380,000 tons.

Over the past sixty days, copper inventories in COMEX warehouses have experienced a waterfall drop from over 110,000 to just 65,119 metric tons.

The US/China trade spat aside - the decline in copper stocks to near decade lows would, based on fundamentals, be a considerably price supportive factor - when copper reached circa $3.30/lb last year, LME stocks were significancy higher than their present level.