Central Asia Metals Share Discussion Threads

[3noddy] 09/4/2019 23:35

Giant mines currently under construction will churn out an additional 1 million tons of copper through 2023, but that won’t be enough to fully close an expected gap between supply and demand in the next few years.

Industry analysts and executives descending on Santiago this week for the Cesco conference, one of the industry’s biggest events, are in bullish spirits: a key indicator of the market for semi-processed copper ore -- known as concentrates -- is pointing to the tightest market in more than five years, and banks and brokers such as Morgan Stanley and Macquarie Group Ltd. rank the metal as one of their top picks.

“We are looking at a classic resource cycle,” said Colin Hamilton, managing editor for commodities at BMO Capital Markets. “No one has copper coming now, when it is needed, but everyone has projects coming 2022-2023 –- potentially after we’ve had to drive some substitution.”

[zangdook] 09/4/2019 23:19

with MT you never know if he's writing as himself or c&ping from somewhere else without attribution

[nickwild] 09/4/2019 21:34

MT

Which companies do you favour?

[mount teide] 08/4/2019 21:42

Greetings from Australia - on a flying 10 day visit to carry out further research on two additional Nat Resource sector junior/mid cap companies i'm considering for investment during the next phase of the recovery stage of the commodity market.

I believe copper over the next decade will perform like an investment grade base metal/commodity - regardless as to what technology takes the forefront of the EV and renewable energy sectors, and the associated electric grid build-out, you're guaranteed to have significantly increased copper demand at a time when the copper market is already in its second year of deficit, has rapidly declining grades at the major mines, declining throughput at many of the large older mines requiring either massive investment to target underground reserves(eg Grasberg) or to develop lower grade near surface periphery reserves with very high production costs...together with rising operating costs across the board etc etc.

In these circumstances all roads point to copper as the base metal for industrial metal sector investors who want to be less risk averse, since its going to have very strong leverage to the guaranteed electrification of the world - through the global motor industry, clean energy initiatives and their huge supporting infrastructure.

My macro view right now is that we are in the late 'early stage' phase of a new commodities bull market - where historically the juniors/small mid caps tend to start attracting bids and outperforming the market.

Consequently, i'm interested in high quality single asset development stage type companies - that means copper juniors that have found something very significant against a backdrop of an extremely modest industry development pipeline in terms of new projects.

Similar to Nat Resource specialist Joshua Hall the view out here is that many of the copper juniors with Tier One type discoveries are going to be taken out over the next 12-24 months.

In addition, i also really like lean, mean, high quality copper/base metal mid caps with good growth profiles, strong cash flow and relatively low debt - there are not many of them but the ones that do exist still look very cheap.

Over the next 12-18 months I think the commodity sector smart money will increasingly move down the food chain into high quality small caps and producing mid caps as the recovery stage of this the new commodity bull market progresses.

While nothing is guaranteed, the fundamentals strongly suggest we are at the stage where previous commodity cycle history strongly suggests the high quality small cap and producing small/mid caps is the place to be.

AIMHO/DYOR

[napoleon 14th] 07/4/2019 11:09

melody; we're very similar! D4T4 is one of my main/best holdings too.
Started two years ago with those. Another LTBH.
Big hopes for imminent news in ALT too - could be this week.

[melody9999] 06/4/2019 22:07

N14 2724 - I too have held CAML thru 2018 and also just made 75%+ on BIDS but sold on results! Also excited by D4T4 right now. I like companies where the BOD are strong and experieneced and in that sense I am very comfortable having CAML as one of my larger holdings and a long term hold.

[mount teide] 06/4/2019 11:09

Looking for a low risk/high reward mining sector investment? - then find a Quartile One Cash Cost SX/EW Copper Cathode Project - these extremely rare gems deliver exceptional profitability through every stage of the copper market cycle.

CRU Group has looked at all SX/EW projects placing on the cost curve, and saw that circa 76% placed in the third and fourth quartile, whilst only 5% placed in the first quartile, compared with 30% of concentrate miners.

THIS RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS THE IMPORTANCE OF PICKING THE RIGHT SX/EW OPERATION and how sensitive cathode supply can be to copper prices.

CAML's Kounrad Copper production facility is a world leading example of the incredible profitability and robust economics of a first quartile SX/EW operation. Even at the 2015/16 market bottom nadir of the last brutal copper market cycle decline/recession stage - when most of the industry was on its knees and mothballing mines or had gone bust - CAML's Kounrad operation was still generating 20%+ operating margins and paying market cycle boom-time dividends.

[napoleon 14th] 06/4/2019 09:48

Clean short term B/O IMO. My T1 is 300p. That would be none too soon.

Results should be good 'cos zinc, lead & copper in good shape despite Trump.
He will want to declare and swagger bigly over an "epic" Chinese trade deal,
so further progress should be possible.

I've stuck with these thru' the whole neg. phase of Q2 & Q3 '18
when we had to absorb the SASA T/O while all those shares had to go somewhere,
& Q418 made any share price recovery a pipe dream.
That's what this game is about - patience and sticking to the knitting for long term rewards in ISA & SIPP.

Although BIDS has been fun - flash profit of 75% in a month for me -
the likes of FUTR & CAML make the real money long term.

GLA.

[mad foetus] 05/4/2019 17:48

Nice finish, bodes well

[arf dysg] 05/4/2019 14:32

The share price is up... do I detect the scent of optimism in the air?

[lauders] 05/4/2019 01:37

Fair enough LA! We shall soon find out whether you are correct! Nice to see a bit of a tick-up at the end of trading yesterday. Would be nice if it continues when the market opens and the beginning of next week before results.

Despite the dips shown by the shaded areas in the chart link below there is only one direction for Cu it would seem and that is up. How long before we break $3?





Then we have Zn which seems to be heading in the right direction too:

[leopoldalcox] 05/4/2019 00:34

Very interesting lauders. Thanks for sharing. To be clear, I'm in agreement about caml as a company and operator. . I just think this year's results will disappoint due to those two factors-- weak metals due to trump kicking up macro fog, and a misunderstanding about the divi that I see posted all over here and the lse site

[lauders] 04/4/2019 01:58

LeopoldAlcox - You may be correct about the disappointment and the dividend expectations however my core CAML holding is a long term hold and is based more on the future (outlook) than the past or present. When it comes to the future I think CAML should do just fine based on the good management, upcoming results of Sasa reserves (hopefully good news), and potential acquisitions/deals that could develop and likely favourable metal prices in the future (unless most people are wrong on the "predictions". In the short term I have no idea what is going to happen.

PS. I also noted this on the CAML website where Sasa is explained in detail:

Tailings from the Sasa processing plant are stored in storage facilities (TSF) on site. TSF 3.2 is currently active, with TSF 4 under construction and scheduled for commissioning in H1 2019.

So we may receive news on this on 10th too.

[melody9999] 03/4/2019 22:01

thanks zangdook 2713 - my error. I was looking at 2018 dividend.

[leopoldalcox] 03/4/2019 16:35

Honestly I think results will disappoint purely due to the subdued metals prices. Divi will match the interim. This was clearly laid out by the BOD - two equal dividends, so those expecting a larger final will be disappointed.Looking forward, however, with metals prices rising caml is in a good position

[lauders] 03/4/2019 15:56

Added a few more here on the recent strength. Hope this is a good omen as we head towards results next week. With Cu increasing in value a bit too things may be looking up. Up being the important word :-)

[garycook] 03/4/2019 04:01

Results Wed Apr 10.

[zangdook] 02/4/2019 16:05

the dividend hasn't been announced. Last year it was announced on 12 April. melody's post is speculative.

[arf dysg] 02/4/2019 14:45

The divi eligibility date and payment date are in the results (full- or half-year as appropriate).

Nornally the ex-divi date is shortly after the results announcement.

CAML example: interim results 19th of September 2018

divi of 6.5 pence per share, payable on 26th of October to shareholders on the record on 5th of October, which normally means you have to buy the shares before close of business on the 3rd of October.

[tradeforce] 02/4/2019 13:40

Do you know when you had to be on the register to collect the dividend as I cannot see any notification of divi date or amount?

[melody9999] 02/4/2019 13:21

sound advice bogdan - oh and collect the dividends too. ex divi for 10p in 3 weeks. yield almost 6%

[mount teide] 01/4/2019 16:41

The precise nature of each long term commodity/business market cycle over the last 70- years may be slightly different but the behavioural essentials that drive them - greed and fear - are unchanging.

[bogdan branislov] 01/4/2019 00:16

Don't get too hung up on the immediate CAML stock price response to higher metal prices, or the lack of it. Correlations between metal prices and share prices are not usually immediate. CAML's share price has moved nicely off its recent base and with full year share results just around the corner, the market will want to take a good look at those. Bear in mind that the share issuing from the reverse takeover tends to throw a bit of a shroud over the accounts immediately following the share issuing, part lifted by the half year figures but the market will want to see the first full year results produced after the reverse takeover and share issuing. I think that they are going to like what they see. Whilst Brexit has no direct impact upon CAML's operations, many of the UK's private investors are in cash now. As the risk of a hard or no-deal Brexit recedes these investors will be looking to return to the market. CAML has been highlighted by so many stock screens recently as being very high quality, very undervalued and I know that CAML is very much on the radar of several UK investors sitting on sizeable cash piles at the moment. Continued metal price increases, the full year results, decreasing Brexit concerns are all going to push up CAML's share price in time. Don't try too hard to find reasons if the share price response is not immediate following events, often there is no reason, you just have to be patient. Bogdan

[lauders] 31/3/2019 02:16

Indeed Gary! With Cu and Zn doing well you would expect it to reflect positively on CAML. Perhaps there is something going on in the background (another acquisition/deal) that is holding us back? Guess we will find out on the day you say!