Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[dt1010] 22/2/2019 18:00

I will be adding no matter what on Monday.

Good weekend all.

[spacedust] 22/2/2019 17:57

My guess is decent news but share price will go down on that decent news

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 22/2/2019 17:30

Difficult call.. I've wrestled with it all week.., but we've been told that Q4 was 134,700 Ounces, and January was c45,000 Ounces, so I've made my decision based on those facts..

Half expecting the share price to be marked down from the bell purely on the lower profits then I will add, it should recover quickly over the day..IMO, but we get what we get..!

POG 1330 as I type and going our way.. :o)

[dt1010] 22/2/2019 17:22

Either way in the medium term even if the so drops a bit, it will get bought back fast and move to new highs again. This is the highest quality gold miner on the whole exchange with zero debt.

[kennyp52] 22/2/2019 17:11

LLB ... pretty much as I see it . I took a lump off the table today as I expect some of the institutional investors not to have done their homework and will potentially sell at the sight of poor year end figures and reduced dividend but I also left a steady core in. Could go either way .

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 22/2/2019 16:41

Staying long with news due is a risk, this isn't going to be any different here, so for those that rolled the loaded dice, I'm in as well ..!

Facts are, the FY financials will be poor, the dividend will be poorer than 2017 (but not rubbish) at 4/5c, the upside is if we're back on track (which I expect) to 550K/Oz, and with POG getting a tailwind already confirmation for 45,000 Ounces a month and the bad news won't really matter as we're going forward with +USD 50/75 on an ounce, that will give us a good uplift in profits for free and the share price will follow.. :o)

[astjgroom] 22/2/2019 16:24

It's all about the Monday. GL2usAll!

[borisjohnsonshair] 22/2/2019 15:42

Have you just had a blood test?

[ukgeorge] 22/2/2019 15:21

"spacedust22 Feb '19 - 15:03 - 29897 of 29898

Bad results leaked?????"

The shares are up 10% in the last week................

I personally think we will get a bit of a pull back on Monday on sell the news.

The results are basically not going to be a surprise, they have told us gold production, told the market about mine issues and how they are being resolved.

The dividend should be 5 cents.

Small pull back then continue to rise is my guess

[bor491] 22/2/2019 15:10

price seems to be going nowhere - lots of anticipation, some would obviously be worried while others would want to take a position in advance - i see no leak

[spacedust] 22/2/2019 15:03

Bad results leaked?????

[ukgeorge] 22/2/2019 13:50

Yawn. Please keep to topic, centamin.

[sidarthur2] 22/2/2019 13:38

of interest from alphaville.....

First, though, should note this Barrick story.


Globe & Mail reporting that Barrick Gold is considering going hostile for Newmont ....



BE
Here's the summary: hxxps://www.reuter...edia-idUSKCN1QB0AN

BE
Or here if you prefer: hxxps://www.bloomb...nt-mining-jsfhehgz

BE
....... so, this idea's been going around for quite a few days now.


BE
One of those widely spread market rumours that no one confirms and no one denies so it just sits out there waiting to be reported.

BE
There are lots of reasons to be cautious, of course. Mostly at the management level. And timelines are complicated.

BE
Key Points
• Barrick announced 2019 guidance of 5.1-5.6Moz of gold and all-in-sustaining of $870
to 920/oz.
• Newmont announced 2019 guidance of 5.2Moz op gold +/- 5% at all-in-sustaining of
$935/oz.
• Simple math suggest the combined company will produce +10Moz of gold with AISC
in the range of 900/oz.

[astjgroom] 22/2/2019 13:10

Fed say they may tighten fiscal policy, I think they are bluffing, next few months will tell

[kennyp52] 22/2/2019 13:05

Gary Cook ... why is POG going down then ? All the comments on here is it should be going through the roof so I would love a rational explanation . Is the expectation that the trade war US / China will be resolved and everything will be honky dory ?

[garycook] 22/2/2019 11:24

Gold!

"Central banks seem to reckon that the yellow metal is a good investment. They’re buying it for their reserves at the highest rate for almost half a century. Last year their net purchases reached $27 billion – 74 per cent more than in 2017.

Russia, Turkey and Kazakhstan were the biggest purchasers as the deteriorating political climate spurred them to convert some of their foreign reserves out of dollars. Hungary increased its bullion holdings tenfold. Even Poland is buying tons of gold.

It’s clear that the down-trend in gold prices since 2011 came to an end last year. The metal’s price has been rising steadily since mid-August. Where is it heading this year?

“The macroeconomic and geopolitical climate is conducive to continued gains in both gold and silver, and the precious metals equities,” says American stockbroker Cantor Fitzgerald, given:

Gold’s recent and historical strong performance in a rising interest-rate environment.

Should inflation expectations rise, this typically is a very bullish leading indicator for gold and silver.

The inflection point where physical gold outflows from ETFs ceases and inflows resumed was reached in the final quarter of last year and inventory holdings have continued to climb.

Uncertainty and volatility in global equity, debt and currency markets draw investors to safe havens. There is considerable upside potential as “precious metals equities are still widely under-owned by sophisticated international investors.”"

[borisjohnsonshair] 22/2/2019 10:25

I guess you easily got out today.

[astjgroom] 22/2/2019 10:22

Hope ur right Jim, been waiting five years for £2+. Court case may halt any takeover though.Good Oz forecast, continual positive Africa development and gold price increase are the initial drivers, with some dividend potential. Also now the ftse100s biggest gold share, good news

[astjgroom] 22/2/2019 10:18

Perfectly sensible Ken. Always take a bit of excess profit, I've done the same.

[bocase] 22/2/2019 10:08

Jim:

Thank you for sharing the write up.

Interesting post. I hope you are right. today is decision day for selling or not before results but with higher grade ore now being processed and the Doropo update, I have for have decided to hold and expect a positive reaction to results on Monday.

I think we could see further positive press coverage next week.

[jimbowen30] 22/2/2019 09:52

Shares magazine have given CEY a good write up this week, saying the stock is “under the market’s radar”. Says the market reaction to the Doropo update was modest but this could be a strategically important asset to CEY, who are increasingly confident they can produce over 2m oz. A second mine would diversify revenues and geographically. They believe the cherry on top is a potential takeover (personally I’m not so sure on this). Sukari is a world class asset that’s gone through a bad patch and the Cote’ d’Ivoire assets will increase appeal to other companies. The Numis analyst says with no blocking major shareholders and the gold sector undergoing a phase of consolidation, CEY is one of the more likely targets for one of the majors.

Most of us know the long term potential of CEY, so the price today, next week or next month is no interest to me. They have no debt, c$300m of cash to pay dividends and fund building another mine. It will take time, but I can envisage CEY producing c200k oz pa from Doropo (if they go ahead) which will push them closer to total production of 1m oz pa. The beauty is that this can all be self funded, with no debt. Despite the production issues last year, imo CEY are a class apart compared to the majors that have had major write downs. I agree with DT that CEY will be well over 200p at some stage and my long term target is much higher.

[dt1010] 22/2/2019 09:40

Within the next year? It will be over 200p within 9 months with gold over $1370 just you see.

I also strongly believe this will shoot up on results next week, notice how there is very little selling going on. This is a quality play.

[bocase] 22/2/2019 09:40

Yes agreed Ken T.

It is always a good policy to take a bit off the table. The only trading I do is with shares like CEY or FRES etc which are in an uptrend and I think you can maximise gains by getting out after a strong run and getting in again a little lower. Sometimes of course you get caught out and have to buy in higher than you sold but I think it still pays overall.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 22/2/2019 08:55

My revised final dividend expectation is anywhere between USD0.025-0.05 per share depending how much cash the company want to add to the FCF calculation..

It's more about looking forward than what we achieved in 2018, the 2019 guidance and the resource update will drive the share price ., let's see if Mr Market see's it the same way.. :o)