Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[spacedust] 02/1/2019 15:47

Gold up Cey up. That's how it should be..maybe 2019 will one of common sense.

[charlock] 02/1/2019 15:31

From RNS dated December 27th:-

"Further operational detail will be included in the preliminary production results for the final quarter, ending 31 December 2018, scheduled for publication on 9 January 2019."

[trulyscrumptious] 02/1/2019 15:23

Gold going up.

[action] 02/1/2019 15:16

Result / update die on 7th Jan 19?

[oli12] 02/1/2019 14:34

El Raghy sold his stock at the right time. It would be nice if he started buying again

[wbecki] 02/1/2019 13:43

"Egyptian gold miner Centamin was also in the green as it postponed the replacement of executive chairman Josef El-Raghy, who will now remain in the role as a non-executive director until 2020 as the company has not yet identified a suitable replacement"

How many here will sell when El-Raghy goes?
He seems to have the political ear of the Egyptian Govt.

[ukgeorge] 02/1/2019 13:36

The chart is looking great come on centamin lets head back to 150p

[wallywoo] 02/1/2019 10:53

January is often the best month for gold price. I am expecting it to run up to $1350 ish, lets wait and see

[kennyp52] 02/1/2019 09:18

Gold rising to $1300 ?

[gotnorolex] 29/12/2018 18:10

Criminals make off with billions in modern-day gold rush: report

[trulyscrumptious] 28/12/2018 14:10

A tidy sum! Good income for that amount as well.

[trulyscrumptious] 28/12/2018 12:58

From lSE board

IC Tip: Buy at 102p

By Alex Newman
Centamin (CEY) beat some stiff competition to the title of most disappointing UK-listed gold miner in 2018. Persistent low grades at the Sukari mine, exacerbated by a lack of available equipment in the second quarter, led to a swell in costs and not one but two production downgrades. Full-year output is now likely to hit 480,000 ounces, 17 per cent off the original plan, while all-in sustaining costs could reach $890 (£706) an ounce, 16 per cent above January’s guidance.
Consequently, sentiment is dour and management is likely to be cautious in its 2019 guidance. But we still think recent operational improvements are being overlooked, underlined by the group's assurance at the start of November that it “remains on track to produce 145,000 ounces” in the current quarter. Should that rate of output be maintained, investors might soon view 2018 as a lost year, rather than a sign of an enduring crisis.

If we simply assume that fourth-quarter output guidance is achieved and persists, and the gold price remains at $1,241, Sukari should produce 580,000 ounces in 2019, worth $720m. Next year, capital intensity should fall as output rises, but even if all-in sustaining costs remain at the third-quarter average of $889 an ounce, Centamin will generate operating profits of $200m. Strip out Egypt’s 45 per cent cut, and the miner is still left with net earnings of $110m, or 9.5¢ a share.

Numis expects slightly more than this (see table), despite forecasting for production of 540,000 ounces. That’s because the brokerage thinks the dollar-denominated gold price will average $1,300 next year – hardly a quantum leap, given a possibly slowing US economy and all manner of geopolitical and market risks. Free of hedges and loans, Centamin is well set to benefit from further gold price rises. On Numis’s numbers, a 10 per cent rise in the price of the yellow metal prices translate to a 29 per cent uptick in earnings per share, a 16 per cent rise in cash flow per share, and a 20 per cent lift in net asset value.

That’s one forecast, at least. Another is Centamin’s $40m indicative free cash flow projection for the fourth quarter of 2018, which is based on a $1,200 gold price and all-in costs of $745 an ounce. Annualising this would certainly support a re-rating in the shares. But if 2019 production comes in nearer to Numis’s estimate, the effect of improvements in the underground mine and improving open-pit grades – both of which were flagged by the company last month – could push all-in sustaining costs back towards $850 an ounce, which would still feed through to EPS of 9.5¢, assuming the gold price goes sideways.

[trulyscrumptious] 28/12/2018 12:56

IC View

That puts Centamin's shares on less than 13 times forward earnings, which looks attractive value given the years of expansion ahead, and the potential for the cost base. To our mind, the shares should trade on a higher multiple, even if the past year has highlighted the risks of the company’s reliance on one mine. Unlike many peers, Centamin pays a dividend, is debt-free, maintains good government relations, and boasts a 20-year mine in Sukari. We remain buyers.
Last IC View: Buy, 114.4p, 5 Aug 2018

[larry laffer] 28/12/2018 12:06

kennyp52

all of those should help even out the bumps in the road.

[kennyp52] 28/12/2018 10:53

shieldbuy .. not just Cote D’Ivoire but Cleopatra aswell coming on line . Then there is Burkino Faso !

[wisteria2] 28/12/2018 09:38

Can't envisage much of a pullback with the POG as brexit or not unravels, and big don firing of the hip! my take is a slow uplift in the share price and as good a place as any to park your dosh.

[shieldbug] 28/12/2018 09:23

The Cote d’Ivoire PEA expected in H1 will be interesting. The possibility of a second mine project would spread risk and in 2 or 3 years add a lot of value. But we must be patient.

[shieldbug] 28/12/2018 09:19

Price of gold keeps pushing in to £1280s/oz. If this momentum continues we could soon be above £1300/oz. Psychologically this could be an important milestone with the share price.

[oli12] 28/12/2018 08:49

Let’s see what the January update brings and what they expect to produce in 2019, one hopes they will be realistic and avoid a repeat of this years missed targets.

IC article worth a read - someone posted it on the LSE CEY blog for those interested.

[kennyp52] 28/12/2018 08:31

Good points Oli12 ... maybe we will see peaks and troughs again for at least another month but long term they have Cleopatra and the other exploration sites which they are due to report viability on . Risk and reward ... gold miners .

[oli12] 28/12/2018 08:18

Agree re only 2% the concern we have ended the year with “lower than expected grades” and a all sustaining cost of $900. The price of gold will help however the lower grades is somewhat concerning and creates further uncertainty. IC article recommending CEY buy.

[kennyp52] 28/12/2018 08:07

Ffs guys .. 2% .... 2% ..... yes it means they have not quite hit production but POG above $1280 and steadily rising . This share price has been priced higher with worse outlooks. IMHO it remains a value for money share with connection to gold which will be used as a safe haven if Donald keeps playing up .