Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 27/12/2018 18:13

They've already had problems and they are still making huge piles of net cash profit...

[rebess4] 27/12/2018 18:12

There was no production update in Dec. last year, it all came out in the scheduled Jan presentation which also included production guidance. - There's no production guidance for 2019 until the Feb. presentation by which time we will already be half-way through Q1. - It seems odd to me.

[bulltradept] 27/12/2018 18:02

There may be problems ahead...

[casual47] 27/12/2018 17:57

Oli,

"Gold production for October and November combined was above 90,000 ounces".

The guidance for q4 was 145k oz.

"annual production from the Sukari Gold Mine of up to 2% below full year 2018 guidance of 480,000 ounces."

"Up to 2% below 480k oz" is at least 470,400 ounces produced for 2018 or maximum 9.6k oz less than expected.

So q4 will be at least 135.4k oz which means December should be around 45k.

[casual47] 27/12/2018 17:51

Regarding the Dekkers article, any kind of "valuation metric" is just one of the things to consider when deciding whether to invest but it has very rarely any relation to share price performance as the market is driven by a whole range of motivations and sentiments. It is rare to see shareprices aligned to "valuations" and it is just a fact that premium stock is often well ahead of these kind of valuations and most AIM miners well below (they are sometimes even below cash book value).

The fact is, Centamin will soon be the only premium gold play of its kind on the London stock exchange and people will want to remain invested in gold plays as sentiment around gold improves amidst growing concerns about the wider economy.

[oli12] 27/12/2018 17:48

Thanks for the responses - it’s vague as they don’t explicitly refer to “production221; total in Q4 only gold poured this was clearly done on purpose.
I guess the “above 90” is marginal as if it were more they would have stated a number. Bought at early 90’s expecting to hold for a while.... having second thoughts now maybe better investments. casual I’m enjoying the Chaarat re rate, which is long over due.

[casual47] 27/12/2018 17:41

Oli, the "leftover gold" from September will add to the cash position but is not included in the q4 production figures (it was already included in q3 production, just not the "q3 sold" figures).

So what they are saying is that they expected December alone to do at least 55k oz so that they would reach the expected 145k oz this quarter but that they didn't quite make it and December production will "only" be in line with what they did in October and November, a little over 45k

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/12/2018 17:32

#hernando2, a sensible position to take..
FY2017 was 545K/Oz
FY2018 will be 470K/Oz worst case
FY2019 forecast tbc 09.01.2019, but the current run rate suggests c540K/Oz

The 17 to 18 Ounces drop was 13% whereas the share price dropped was 37.5% so there should be plenty of upside from the current level.., it will become clearer when we get the December number.. :o)

#Oli12... Oct/Nov was 'above' 90K/Oz, the unknown is how much above to make sense of the Dec number and the 135-140K/Oz range Q4 total..

[oli12] 27/12/2018 17:18

Well that’s what confuses me as they refer to gold produced in Oct / Nov as being 90k oz but then they say Q4 gold poured will be 135-140k oz - didn’t they have gold left over from Q3 which was yet to be poured so Decembers number could be lower. it’s a little confusing to use 2 different measures. Granted December is not over yet however they must know the figure.

[hernando2] 27/12/2018 17:08

I sold today..have been a holder back in the past and bought back in the 90's when it fell earlier this year.

The reason i sold is that this is the 4th update in a row which hasn't met expectations..and up till then in general this didn't happen.

I don't think management have suddenly become poor, to me it points to the degree of difficulty in mining going up, and so the management are finding it more difficult to predict what's going to happen next.

So the uncertainty has increased and for me its safer out than in, but everyone has their own risk profile.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/12/2018 17:02

FY2018 will be worst case 2% below 480K/Oz.. so 470K/Oz minimum.
90,000+ Ounces for October/November, December tbc but can't be much lower than 45,000 can it...? to make the guide of 135-140 for Q4.., AISC USD900/Oz / USD375/Oz Margin

Looks a good buy again now the dust has settled.. FY2019 540K/Oz...? or wait until 09.01.2019 for their best guess numbers..!

Further operational detail will be included in the preliminary production results for the final quarter, ending 31 December 2018, scheduled for publication on 9 January 2019. The Company will provide 2019 Outlook, including production guidance, and updated Mineral Reserve and Resource estimates for 2018 with the Annual Results in February.

[shieldbug] 27/12/2018 16:56

This independent analysis of Centamin was published about a week ago and suggests Cey is overpriced. Centamin is going to have to prove itself over time. Need to keep a lid on costs, hope for better grades and a good lift in price of gold.

[stevedaytrader] 27/12/2018 16:53

ftse down, dow down, gold stocks doing ok comparively and in general- but when stocks bomb so do gold ones, although not as bad- people seem to forget gold stocks are not gold, they r a stock :-). Good day all things considered- i expect a
good year for CEY as way oversold and underpriced big time. Surprised me today though, after usa markets and asia big jump thought ftse would go up today not down- markets volatile, trump, trade wars, usa fed, italy and we’re getting hammered by brexit.

[oli12] 27/12/2018 16:25

It’s hard to work out how bad Decembers numbers are as they refer to 2 different measures in the RNS - October / November gold production and then Q4 gold pour.

[gotnorolex] 27/12/2018 15:56

Murphy's law! kennyp52

[kennyp52] 27/12/2018 15:15

Wtf gotnorolex ... CEY back up , FRES up , Glencore steady ... ????

[kennyp52] 27/12/2018 15:14

bor491 ... good business keeping your cash reserve . They have no debt and try to keep 300M in cash so I also prefer to see them keep the cash instead of blowing it to support an artificial dividend

[gotnorolex] 27/12/2018 15:12

Miners weak after DOW bashing!

[bor491] 27/12/2018 14:35

so how much does centamin have in cash reserves? they should really conserve the cash and use it as a war chest. It not only provides support for the stock price but also comes in handy for opportunistic bids or expansions particularly now that Egypt is about to revamp mining legislation to encourage further mining operations.

[gotnorolex] 27/12/2018 14:17

Dow set to tumble after biggest point gain in history!

[oli12] 27/12/2018 13:00

I agree with some of the above. Concerned that in December the grades were still not as expected.... will this continue is the worry. Yes they have demonstrated an improved performance in Q4 however question marks remain for me. Holding.

[larry laffer] 27/12/2018 12:46

The duff news was pretty much priced in already. The small drop today won’t take long to be forgotten about. The update wasn’t as bad as the share price fall suggests.

When the lemmings have departed we should be able to move onward and upward. Wouldn’t surprise me if the company opts for a face saver dividend.

[kennyp52] 27/12/2018 12:30

I am with you Casual47 . This is not particularly great news but it certainly is not devastating. Cleopatra production will add and they have been cost cutting . I’m as confident I can be this will recover today’s loss quite quickly so holding. End of day price?

[casual47] 27/12/2018 12:28

Ther should be no reason for the share price to drop much more. I think it will be fairly stable at 105-108p. They have basically confirmed that 540k+ will be achieved next year.

This is a case of gratification delayed. The dreamed of 130p and then 160p will just come a month or two later than anticipated.

[spacedust] 27/12/2018 12:25

Yes I did during the last spike. I managed to get out at 111p and the got in fres.