Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/11/2018 13:59

Solid progress indeed, 107 paid .., the TA breakout from the pennant at 93/94p wasn't wrong.., happy with my buys Monday/Tuesday morning..!

#Casual47, looking forward to the Golden Cross 50/200 in December.. :o)

[casual47] 20/11/2018 13:56

107p paid!

[spacedust] 20/11/2018 13:54

Feel for the chap who bailed out at 104p but few days earlier said he bailed at 102p

[casual47] 20/11/2018 13:47

Wow.....is CEY share price going to attempt to break 110p today?

[casual47] 20/11/2018 13:35

106.15p paid. Looking good!

[casual47] 20/11/2018 12:43

Looking good for a closing price today above the sma100

[casual47] 20/11/2018 12:29

Chunky trade at 104.175p of 103000 shares.

[casual47] 20/11/2018 12:04

Interesting: the midday crossed trade for CEY was 105p

[casual47] 20/11/2018 11:02

The good thing about CEY is that it is a beaten down share in an operational/managerial recovery play in a beaten down sector.

While other goldies are just beaten down and don't have this recovery aspect.

So CEY, imo, has a lot more upside than other goldies, even at current share price

The EMRA payments, shipments and even Morgan Stanley analyst write-up all help to underpin the fundamentals of this recovery play so should derisk the downside risk of a possible recovery failure quite a bit.

[davius] 20/11/2018 10:58

50 day average bottomed on the 15th and is now in an uptrend. A close above 104p or so would also see the 6 month downtrend line broken.

[casual47] 20/11/2018 10:54

The classic chartist proof of a sustained uptrend would be if price remains above sma50 and sma50 remains above sma100.

Currently the price is above the sma50 but the sma50 is still below sma100, but has started to curl toward it.

As we are just emerging from a protracted slump the sma50 just needs some more time to catch up, that or we need a massive move upward in price.

But all looking good so far, especially as a recovery in share price is underpinned by an actual recovery in operations and also sentiment (Morgan Stanley)

[juju44] 20/11/2018 10:48

I am looking at the lower highs but I do agree we could be on the turn . I hope so

[casual47] 20/11/2018 10:30

The sma50 is curling upward, not sure how that can be indicative of a downtrend.....

[juju44] 20/11/2018 10:25

Downtrend is still intact for now

[cinquepercento] 20/11/2018 09:41

Ignoring all the wonderful informative posts here,price of gold,RNS's,production figures,contracts etc, I think that this may head back down to around 93/94 pence soon so I will wait in the hope of buying back in at this price.
I sold at 104 yesterday. :-)

[casual47] 20/11/2018 09:28

Stockpile inventory and any tonnage produced but not processed into dore ready for shipment (such as ore processed to be put into the leach pads) may of course impact profits, you are right. With a huge chunk of costs absorbed into AISC during month but no profits generated until later, possibly even several months later.

But as this is routine business it should smooth out over the year, e.g. tonnage produced in April may result in profit for May but then the March tonnage has profits in April so it's swings and roundabouts....

(What i meant in the post above is I don't think actual gold inventory in their vault will impact EMRA - EMRA will have been paid the month the dore was prepared for shipment)

[casual47] 20/11/2018 09:24

The EMRA payments are estimates. Every month CEY management look at what they did the month before and based on that they make a payment to EMRA. At the end of the financial year (and in case of some expenditures even after three years) they match up what they paid with the audited results and then either pay more or reduce the next EMRA payment to balance.

So no, I don't think inventory or the late shipment of 20k oz will have made an impact on EMRA payments.

[kennyp52] 20/11/2018 09:19

Casual47 ... the inventory would be included in accounts at production cost so the profit not realised until sold . Could make a difference . To me the next EMRA payment will be the most important indicator ?

[casual47] 20/11/2018 09:12

Laurence, yes, could point towards 145k+ or better than expected AISC or a combination of both.

Not sure re. sitting on ounces. In the last financial results report it didn't seem they were sat on too many cash equivalent assets. They may perhaps hold a small batch back for logistic/operational reasons but not sure they'd do it as a rule.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/11/2018 08:41

#Casual47, solid progress based on your numbers there, and points towards 145,000+ for Q3..

Is it company policy to hold and sit on some Ounces of inventory or do they generally ship everything in stock..?

None for sale in the 102's yet today..., which is good and bad pending which side of the fence you're on.. :o)

[casual47] 20/11/2018 08:25

Kenny, I don't think so. It would have been included in September EMRA payment as usual.

[kennyp52] 20/11/2018 08:20

20,000 increased inventory at end of Q3 might impact these figures ?

[casual47] 20/11/2018 07:39

EMRA payment for October: 9 million.

We're on track!

My "back of cigarette pack" calculation was they had to achieve at least $8.3m to have an AISC of $825/oz:

145,000÷3×0.97×0.45×(1,220−825)=8.3m

145000 is oz guidance for q4, :3 to get October, x0.97 after 3% royalty payment, 0.45 to get EMRA profit share of 45%, 1220 avg gold price sold, 825 AISC

So $9m is very good!

[kennyp52] 19/11/2018 17:16

Happy with 103.50 . Steadily supported . Any positive news should push this share price onwards.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/11/2018 16:44

That will do for today..., added a few more and just got into the 102s average, an interesting week for buying and see if 100p comes back on the horizon for stake building... :o).