Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[garycook] 20/2/2018 04:27

7.15p atm at 1.3972 GBP/USD

[leonidas] 19/2/2018 23:36

what is the value of the dividend in sterling?

[sparkey_two] 19/2/2018 17:28

Yep, 22/03 for ex-dividend date, 6/04 payout

[ricer93] 19/2/2018 16:50

am i still in time to buy and collect dividend on this one?

[flopticalcube] 15/2/2018 03:45

Inflation.... USD approaching 88.50 support while gold will probably make another attempt at $1360.

[davius] 14/2/2018 16:00

Heck of a dip and spike on gold with Centamin following, 154p to 160p in short order.

[flopticalcube] 09/2/2018 03:10

You fall sick for a few days and the entire world goes to pieces! Bloody typical! ;-)

Gold did indeed fall to the $1310 resistance area. Looks like that record week was worth paying attention to after all. I was hoping it wouldn't but clearly read the tea leaves wrong. Darjeeling next time. It did bounce nicely off this area and GDX has hit support and is touching oversold levels. GDXJ has put in two consecutive doji's (dojii?) so things may be about to turn back. If not, $1300 and $1280 are support. $1320-1330 is the resistance zone now. I suspect a lot of the selloff in gold is to fulfill margin calls since it is often used as a reserve asset. I was hoping to have reached $1390 before China takes its week-long Lunar New Year holiday next Thursday but alas that will not be. We are probably in the soft season now but could get one more leg up. I think seasonals will really take a back seat to what is happening in the markets in general. Such huge volatility is usually indicative of a directional change. I have seen the miners as acting as both gold STOCKS and GOLD stocks in this action. CEY appears to be resting on its 150p support which is also at the confluence of the 50sma and 200sma averages which are forming a Golden Cross (fwiw).

Lots of people are predicting another 2008-like selloff in the precious metals should the markets continue to tank but to that I will say that PMs make up about half or less of the average portfolio weight as they did in 2008. Something like 0.3% now. In 2008 miners were right up there with housing in investors eyes. Not today.

The USD index has climbed 200basis points (2 full ticks) since its lows last week. With Congress approving a gargantuan spending bill (possibly being blocked now in the Senate by Rand Paul... another US gov't shutdown on Friday?), the pig that is the USD continues to be printed at an extraordinary pace. Foreign demand for Treasuries is starting to fall off a cliff. As the Fed begins to unwind QE (by not renewing expiring bonds or maybe even selling them), who will buy US debt? I see that money velocity has finally started climbing again. Will this be the end of the 20 year bear market in stagnant money? If it is, inflation is coming big time.

Ta ta for now and good luck! At least CEY pays a VERY healthy divi.

[astjgroom] 06/2/2018 22:33

gold falls $20 before the Dow climbed 565 whilst the Dollar gets slightly stronger which is better for gold? Everything seems to be topsy turvey

[flopticalcube] 06/2/2018 03:31

Suffering from the flu here. Just want to say, hang tight as the markets go over the edge. Plenty more pain to come but gold is doing what she does best. Bull flag showing up and breakout to be confirmed at $1350 area. USD barely moved as the Dow imploded. Now set up as a bear flag. Back to bed...

[flopticalcube] 01/2/2018 19:54

Well... at least I can be amusing for some. :-) Pliny instructs us to take all such pronouncements with a grain of salt (to make them palatable). I concur.

Looks like the USD has resumed its Death March so crisis averted... for now.

[rrr] 01/2/2018 17:53

Thanks for your regular reports floptical, which I read with great interest.

rrr

[flopticalcube] 01/2/2018 17:26

Unfortunately the Indian gov't didn't address the duty on gold in their budget today, instead opting to restructure the gold industry in India in a veiled attempt to control flows of gold within the country again pushing the "gold account" narrative. What sane individual would let a bank hold their gold?

So we wait for the jobs report tomorrow.

Bitcoin continues to crash, indicating a turn in the general markets can't be far away.

[warranty] 31/1/2018 23:32

Thanks jfishy, that clarifies on both fronts and the market seems to be quite satisfied. The dividend last year was spectacular so maybe I shouldn't be so greedy?

[flopticalcube] 31/1/2018 18:00

USD rebound picking up strength. If it doesn't break last week's low soon we could see more downside in gold. Ultimate floor to watch would be $1300 area in that case with first resistance in the $1320-$1330 area... FOMC results at 2:00PM EST today could be a catalyst.

BTW, last week was a record volume week in gold futures. They are usually negative for gold but volume in general has been WAY up over the last few months so may be meaningless noise.

[jfishy55] 31/1/2018 08:40

warranty, CEY stated a while back that the final dividend was always going to be lower - and the company had been pointing at much less than it came out with. So 10c was really pulling the rabbit out of the hat! (100% FCF!).

The lower EPS/dividend was partly due to the East wall cutback (less gold produced) and that this is the 1st year of full-on profit share, which it seems, CEY has taken in its stride.

I think 2018 will be a good year for CEY, no East wall cut back, progress in BF/IC etc, maybe even some progression with the court cases too?!!

[warranty] 31/1/2018 08:28

I was expecting better to be honest, eps down and final dividend down on last year so I'm surprised the share price has held as well as it has so far but let's see what happens through the day.

[jimbowen30] 31/1/2018 07:52

Troc
Agree totally. CEY have always said they are not a bank and will distribute excess cash to shareholders. They have $250-$300m to develop Sukari and West Africa and that’s the key.

[troc1958] 31/1/2018 07:48

10c per share final dividend. 5.5% yield. Exceptional for a well established gold miner.Nice to see them awarding shareholders rather than hoarding their cash

[juju44] 31/1/2018 07:47

Another cracker from CEY

[jimbowen30] 31/1/2018 07:45

Very solid results. Nice dividend, huge cash balance to develop future mines, operational efficiencies and lots of growth to come. Obviously doesn£‘t meant the share price will go up today or this week, but longer term outlook is still very positive.

I would just like to hear more about West Africa. Hopefully, it will be raised on this morning’s conference call.

“The Doropo resource is located within a granite domain that had previously been dismissed as not being prospective for significant gold mineralisation. The team in Cote d'Ivoire has successfully proved its ability to define a resource area that is still open and with further geochemical anomalies in the area that still need to be drill tested for further prospective gold mineralisation. Test work has continued to confirm that the gold from this area can be extracted using conventional CIL or heap leaching methods. Whilst undertaking this work in Doropo, the team has also been very active on the ABC project area on the west side of Cote d'Ivoire. Although at an early stage in the exploration pipeline, initial results from first pass drilling has confirmed a mineralised corridor of over 12 km in strike length.

Doropo and the ABC project have the potential to develop further as drilling continues and form part of the strong base for Centamin's exploration and development pipeline including Burkina Faso and the near mine targets at Sukari.”

[skinny] 31/1/2018 07:17

Josef El-Raghy, Chairman of Centamin, commented: "Testament to the quality of our team and the quality of our assets, the past year has seen the Company firmly consolidate its position as one of the world's leading low cost gold producers. The Sukari Gold Mine produced 544,658 ounces of gold in 2017, at a cash cost of production of US$554/oz and all-in sustaining cost of US$790/oz at an average realised gold price of US$1,261/oz, generating US$676 million in revenue, US$326 million in EBITDA and US$224 million in pre-tax profits. Commercially in operation for eight years, Sukari has maintained cash costs in the lowest quartile in the industry, averaging US$614/oz since commercial production commenced in 2010.

The central tenet of our corporate strategy is delivering returns to stakeholders. Following a strong operational and financial performance throughout the year, the board of directors is delighted to propose a final dividend for 2017 of 10 US cents per share, for approval at the forthcoming Annual General Meeting on 26 March 2018. This represents a proposed full year dividend of 12.5 US cents per share, totalling a full year pay-out of US$144 million, which is equivalent to approximately 100% of our free cash flow in 2017."


Financial Highlights(1),(2)

Fourth Quarter, ending 31 December 2017.

· Cash costs of production of US$453 per ounce, a 6% improvement quarter on quarter ("QoQ") on Q3 2017 and a 15% improvement year on year ("YoY) on Q4 2016, driven predominantly by an increase in ounces produced. The benefits of an increase in produced ounces (driven by increases in processed tonnes and grade) was slightly offset by an increase in fuel and reagent costs;

· All-in sustaining costs ("AISC(1)") of US$744 per ounce sold, were 2% higher QoQ and 3% higher YoY, mainly due to increased production costs and higher sustaining capital costs as a result of the planned fleet rebuilds.

Full Year, ending 31 December 2017

· Strong cash flow generation with US$142 million of free cash flow(1) generated in 2017, down 41% on the prior year (2016: US$242 million) almost entirely due to the impact of increased profit share payments;

· 2017 revenues of US$676 million were down 2% on the prior year (2016: US$687 million) with a 0.4% increase in realised gold prices offset by a decrease in gold sales;

· Cash costs increased to US$554 per ounce produced (2016: US$513), driven predominantly by an increase in mined and processed tonnes and an increase in fuel and reagent costs;

· AISC(1) of US$790 per ounce sold matched our forecast but was an increase on the prior year (2016: US$694), mainly due to increased production costs and higher sustaining capital costs resulting from planned fleet rebuilds;

· EBITDA(1) decreased by 13% to US$326 million, as a result of increased production and operating costs and the slight decrease in revenues;

· Profit before tax decreased by 16% to US$224.1 million, due to the factors outlined above;

· Earnings per share after profit share of 9.51 US cents were down 49% on the prior year due to lower revenue, higher costs and, most significantly, the impact of the first full year of profit share (2016: 18.71 US cents);

· Operational cash flow of US$359 million was 2% lower than 2016, due to the lower gold production base with higher gold prices offset by a higher cost base;

· Total capital expenditure for 2017 of US$107.5 million was a 2% increase on the prior year (2016: US$105.6 million). The US$19 million increase in sustaining capital (including the scheduled fleet rebuild programme) was largely offset by a US$17 million reduction in the non-sustaining capitalised exploration costs across the group;

· Cash and liquid assets (3) of US$418 million at 31 December 2017; and

· Centamin remains debt-free and unhedged.



Proposed Final Dividend

o Subject to shareholder approval at the Company's annual general meeting on Monday 26 March 2018:

o Proposed final dividend of 10 US cents per share (US$115.2m);

o Total dividend of 12.5 US cents per share, including the interim dividend of 2.5 US cents per share (paid out 29 September 2017);

o Proposed total dividend pay-out of approximately US$144 million, equivalent to approximately 100% of free cash flow in 2017; and

o Record date on 23 March 2018; Pay date on 6 April 2018.

Operational Highlights (1),(2)

· Full year gold production was 544,658 ounces, above guidance of 540,000 ounces and 1% decrease year on year ("YoY");

· Record processing throughput of 12.0Mt, a 4% improvement YoY and above our base case forecast rate of 11.8 Mtpa.

· Record open pit total material movement (waste plus ore) of 70.9Mt, a 14% improvement YoY.

· Record open pit ore production of 16.09Mt, a 47% improvement YoY, at an average mined grade of 0.66g/t. This included 3,965kt at 0.29g/t delivered to the dump leach pads. The average head grade to the plant from the open pit was 0.89g/t, a 6% decrease YoY; and

· Total underground ore mined of 1.14Mt, a 12% improvement YoY, at a grade of 8.28g/t, an 8% decrease YoY, marking the third consecutive year of sustained annualised rate above our base case forecast of 1Mt per annum.

o Underground ore from stoping was 684kt, a 21% increase YoY, at a grade of 8.88g/t;

o Underground ore from development was 461kt, a 1% increase YoY at a grade of 7.39g/t.



Exploration Highlights

· Exploration at Sukari drives high grade underground reserve expansion in excess of annual depleted mined ounces;

· Exploration success in Côte d'Ivoire has expanded last year's maiden resource at Doropo Project to 1.35Moz gold Indicated and 0.9Moz gold Inferred, with the main structure remaining open;

· Exciting new discovery at the ABC Project in Côte d'Ivoire where exploration delineated an outcropping 12km strike-length gold bearing structure; and

In Burkina Faso, drilling targeted resource and reserve expansion near Konkera.



2018 Outlook

· Forecast gold production for 2018 is 580,000 ounces, a 6.5% increase on 2017 actual production, with the mine plan forecasting a relatively balanced quarterly production profile over the year;

· Forecast cash cost of production for 2018 of US$555 per ounce and all-in-sustaining cost of US$770 per ounce;

· 2018 capital expenditure of US$135 million including US$37.5 million for non-sustaining exploration;

· Processing plant throughput of 12.3Mtpa, with the installation of the fourth secondary crusher increasing capacity;

· 70.5Mt total open pit material scheduled to be mined; 17.7Mt total open pit ore scheduled to be mined at an overall grade of 0.70g/t including dump-leach and stock-pile material, with open pit feed grade in line with open pit reserve grade;

· Open pit mining activities will be focused on Stage 4A of the north wall, the predominant source of ore over the next five years;

· 1.3Mt total underground ore scheduled to be mined at a grade of 7.2 g/t; comprising a 65:35 split between stoping and development ore, respectively;

· Ongoing decline development and exploration at Cleopatra, to access the high grade western contact, a key near term growth catalyst; Ongoing underground decline development at Amun and Ptah, to access the Horus, Bast and Osiris zones, which are key drivers of medium term growth;

· Four exploration rigs allocated to focus on underground reserve replacement and resource expansion drilling as the orebody remains open in multiple directions;

· Further resource development in West Africa, with resource expansion and definition continuing at the Doropo Project in north-east Côte d'Ivoire and resource definition drilling in Burkina Faso; and

· Follow up exploration work continues after encouraging first pass drill results from the ABC project in western Côte d'Ivoire delineated an outcropping 12km strike gold bearing structure.

Legal Developments in Egypt

· The Supreme Administrative Court appeal and Diesel Fuel Court Case are both on-going. With the potential for the legal process in Egypt to be lengthy there may be a number of hearings and adjournments before decisions are reached. There were no developments during the year in the two litigation actions.

more.....

[flopticalcube] 30/1/2018 15:33

Big events coming this week. Besides tomorrow's CEY news we have, as mentioned, super blue moon which will also be a blood moon here in North America. Wednesday also sees Yellen's last meeting as Fed chair. No rise expected but maybe she will go out with a bang. Thursday could see a softening in India's gold duty stance. Friday is the January US jobs report into which gold has a tendency to fall, rising thereafter.

[terry barnett] 30/1/2018 08:34

ww.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-29/these-are-6-traders-who-were-just-arrested-manipulating-gold-market