Looks like the MM that was controlling both sides of the order book has lost it's monopoly as can't find sellers. Presume they'll be scratching around looking for someone to sell them a decent lump before narrowing the spread as they'll not want anyone buying at the moment.
£1.228-1.34 to trade 5000. |
on Bargain Hunt sometimes they say "find me another one" i.e. if you wanted a brooch made of the same materials with the same detail, it would cost many times the ticket price to be made from new.
Try creating a football club. Look at the money spent turning Chelsea from English league also-rans to a European giant. Similarly Paris St Germain.
A successful Celtic team can deliver great cashflows for the owners. If you then apply some probability to those cashflows (i.e discount them for the risk of not getting Champions League football) that might help with a textbook valuation?
But the 'cultural guarantee' embedded in a football club means they deserve a premium. Is there any other type to business with better customer loyalty?
Asagi (long CCP) |
That's mad. Man Utd valued 50 times that of Celtic.
Celtic are worth multiples of the current market cap |
Somewhere well above the current £100m enterprise value and somewhere well below Man Utd's £5b. |
What's the fair value of this club. What do we compare it with? |
Half pence rise this morning, now £1.211-1.32 to trade 7500 but can still add in 1000 lots whilst available at £1.26. |
We entered week with MM's around 3300 shares to the good but I make that a net 10k buy today with a near 11000 trade at the full £1.25 just after 3pm.
Roughly 6700 shares needed by MM to balance books and reason they bumped it up to £1.31 to discourage any large buying. |
and as per the London Stock Exchange website, bid:offer has moved to 120p:125p.
(their website is 15 minutes delayed)
Asagi (long CCP) |
They seem desperate for shares now, over £1.21 for 7500 to sell and £1.31 to buy. |
Another small move up
5000 trade now £1.208-1.28. |
Seems to be the norm Asagi but telling that they've raised the price to buy any size now. Celtic off to South Korea as well in summer, both tours will probably far exceed any profits we get in winning the spfl. |
Yet again couple thousand sells at open which defies logic that someone would get up first thing to sell their Celtic shares as we secured some further profit and showed the current squad is still the best in Scotland!
Yes, deeply odd.
Asagi (long CCP) |
Details of Japan tour in the summer getting released shortly. |
Great result on Sunday and sets up up with great chance of our 8th treble.
Yet again couple thousand sells at open which defies logic that someone would get up first thing to sell their Celtic shares as we secured some further profit and showed the current squad is still the best in Scotland!
Currently £1.17-1.266 to trade 7500 shares. |
Back to £1.17-1.25 for 5000
MM's now have 3300 shares for the week. |
£1.28, good heavens, the EMS is 1,000 shares and may bargains much larger than this have been happening within the bid:offer spread for weeks now.
The balance has changed.
Asagi (long CCP) |
£1.17- £1.28 is price to trade 5000 today. |
6045 buys today with someone taking what was probably the limit of 5k available at £1.22 and someone following up with a 1k at £1.23, bid now officially showing at £1.15-£1.23.
1226 more buys than sells so far for the week. I wonder if we'll get details on Japanese tour once league clinched? |
4819 is total net sells so far this week, still £1.15/1.22 spread, MM still refusing to lift bid officially to £1.15. |
Morning Asagi
It's not supporters because the trades are always first thing before 8:30am, I'm guessing the MM is now accumulating the sells throughout the week and crossing them to the buyer on Friday as seen by past couple weeks.
It's going to be difficult for someone to get a decent holding at this price though so going to have to rise substantially to temp a seller with the prospect of up to £75m CL money available in the next 12 months and £30-35m all but secured. |
these things are tricky for outsiders to anticipate. We cannot see what the MMs can.
I have worried for some time that a lot of the selling might be supporters, facing living cost pressures and selling to pay for holidays etc. Those pressures should now be easing.
I don't think we've seen any trades reported for more than 120p yet have we?
... and there goes a bargain for 443 shares at 122p.
Asagi (long CCP) |
Looks like a 1000 buy was enough to move up to £1.23. As only one MM controls both sides, you would expect they would go back to whoever has been selling the blocks over the last few months and if nothing doing, then bid moves to £1.15, then it's possible the shares will have a rapid rise from here as difficult to see anyone else wanting to sell*
* Based on the fact the enterprise value of the club is less than during covid and when the league was lost a couple years ago and the team required a new manager and complete rebuild. |
Price moved up a bit this morning, now £1.15-£1.25 to buy/sell 2500. |
...and merchandising opportunities increase in far east.. |
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