Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[lyonst5] 18/2/2010 09:59

I see we have an operational silence of late, i think some of us are hoping to get a few a bit cheaper, but i got a feeling its not going to happen.

[still waiting] 18/2/2010 09:54

getting set for another run up?

[28shaila] 16/2/2010 16:08

MM not giving much stock away but happy to take as much a 200k online from you but only sell 25k.

[topgunns] 16/2/2010 16:02

I'm still predicting 4.5 as the bottom.

[still waiting] 15/2/2010 14:56

decent buying starting again.

[still waiting] 15/2/2010 14:34

mm's not keen to let buyers in at the moment.

[lyonst5] 15/2/2010 13:17

LnG, As they say "where's there's muck there's brass"

[still waiting] 12/2/2010 20:45

yep, I posted on the MTV board, CRAZY.

[topgunns] 11/2/2010 09:21

Bought a few more.

[the analyst] 10/2/2010 19:30

Yup, I'll watch on Sky as well. I can't get to many games these days as I moved to Wales. I still love watching them too, even when we lose. We rarely play bad football (if ever) and we have spent a lot less than all the clubs around us, which adds to the enjoyment, imo

Shame you can;t get to the games, sorry to hear that. Maybe next season?

Cheers

TA

[the analyst] 10/2/2010 18:38

On the subject of quality of the websites and tv stations, the paradox is that low quality makes more money. It's been like that for some time.

Take Big Brother, for example, it's cheap throw-away TV, but the money they make on the phone-ins is enormous. Same with the late night game-shows and phone-ins on British TV, they look awful, but they are the ones that bring the cash in

That's exactly the sort of thing Cellcast are doing in Asia, in collaboration with all of the big phone giants.

Right now, Cellcast are the big guns in Asia and I'd have thought if a competitor wants in on the action, their best bet would be to try to acquire CAH and their contracts asap, before they become too big


Off topic,

Another massive game tonight, CR - you going?

Loads of bad press about the last two games, but in the end, Arshavin simply missed his chances and immediately after each one, the opposition took it up the other end and scored. Hence, instead of 1-0 up against Man U, we were 1-0 down, then against Chelsea, instead of being 1-1, we were suddenly 2-0 down. Can analyse as much as we want, but if he had scored those good chances, the league table would look very different, imo and there wouldn't be all this talk about weak players etc.

You are probably on your way to the ground as I type...

[evaluate] 10/2/2010 13:13

Oops. Bit quick on the trigger finger.

post finished below.

Trying to make sense of the latest release on CAH.

Best case . . .

If we assume consistent growth for the last eighteen months AND sales for the last 6 months = $6.4m AND H2 '09 is 400% up on H2 '08, you get sales of $152K in July '08 with a sales growth rate of 14.2% per month.

Extrapolating this across the next 12 months has sales of:
- $14m in H1 '10
- $35m in FY '10

They state that costs are fixed - and were $4.4m in H2 '09.

In than scenario, they will make:
- $9.6m in H1 '10
- $27m across the year.

Clearly that is best case . . . . but it's a pretty exciting best case.

With realistic case, I need to slow down the rate of revenue growth & assume costs will grow - but by how much given info we know.

Realistic case . . .

Sales were £133,500 in July '08 & were growing at 20% per month.
Sales growth rate is multiplied by 0.96 each month - so has dropped to around 10% now & will drop to 6% by the end of the year.

Sales then will be:
- $11m in H1 '10
- $29m in FY '10

Let's assume costs are actually growing at 2% per month - starting at $550K in July '09

This gives profits of:
- $6.4m in H1 '10
- $18.6m in FY '10

Absolute worse case I would say would be to go an as H2 '09 with no growth in sales or profits.



This gives the following as potential profits for FY '10
- best case - $27m
- realistic - $18.6m
- worst case - $4m

If we assume 10 times as worst case rating, 15 for realistic & 20 for best case, we end up with a valuation on publication of 2010 results of:
- worst case - $40m
- realistic - $270m
- best case - $540m

which would leave Cellcasts's share worth:
- $15m worst case
- $101 - realistic case
- $202.5m - best case

This is compared to Cellcast's current valuation of under £4m.

This seriously looks like a likely multi-bagger to me.

[evaluate] 10/2/2010 13:09

Trying to make sense of the latest release on CAH.

Best case . . .

If we assume consistent growth for the last eighteen months AND sales for the last 6 months = $6.4m AND H2 '09 is 400% up on H2 '08, you get sales of $152K in July '08 with a sales growth rate of 14.2% per month.

Extrapolating this across the next 12 months has sales of:
- $14m in H1 '10
- $35m in FY '10

They state that costs are fixed - and were $4.4m in H2 '09.

In than scenario, they will make:
- $9.6m in H1 '10
- $27m across the year.

Clearly that is best case . . . . but it's a pretty exciting best case.

With realistic case, I need to slow down the rate of revenue growth & assume costs will grow - but by how much given info we know.

Realistic case . . .

Sales were £133,500 in July '08 & were growing at 20% per month.
Sales growth rate is multiplied by 0.96 each month - so has dropped to around 10% now & will drop to 6% by the end of the year.

Sales then will be:
- $11m in H1 '10
- $29m in FY '10

Let's assume costs are actually growing at 2% per month - starting at $550K in July '09

This gives profits of:
- $6.4m in H1 '10
- $18.6m in FY '10

Absolute worse case I would say would be to go an as H2 '09 with no growth in sales or profits.



This gives the following as potential profits for FY '10
- best case - $27m
- realistic - $18.6m
- worst case - $4m

If we assume 10 times as worst case rating, 15 for realistic & 20 for best case, we end up with a valuation on publication of 2010 results of:
- worst case - $40m
- realistic - $270m
- best case - $540m

which would leave Cellcasts's share worth:
-

[topgunns] 10/2/2010 10:48

CR, your bear perspective is welcome and appreciated on the board.

[still waiting] 10/2/2010 10:33

TXO flying guys..

[cockneyrebel] 10/2/2010 10:29

trent harris - I agree about posters having agendas, it's completely true.

I'm hardly going sit and post the great points about a stock, let everyone buy it and take the price up, then buy myself - just as I doubt anyone else is going to. Also if I think a stock looks cheap I'll put my money where my mouth is. So yes, I'd take what I say and anyone else says with a pinch of salt.

You might be right that the board were unlucky. Napoleon was asked whether he preferred courageous generals or brilliant generals. Neither, he replied - I like lucky generals.

Anyway, whether you can be unlucky time and time again like that is questionable but give them the benefit of the doubt.

Perhaps they could have taken it private a few months ago. A sceptic might say that if CLTV was going to get so much cash from CAH then why didn't they take it private?

Anyway - good luck an I'm sure following HateTrader's (ericsson3, 8 trader, 8trade, Daydreamer, Gravey, Quotes4U, 21Smithy, 22Simithy, 23Smithy, Limits Wizzkid and all his other handles) balanced view of life and his need to assasinate the characher of anyone that disagrees with him is very healthy for one's investing strategy.

CR

[topgunns] 10/2/2010 10:16

40% deposit rate. Worst I've ever heard of. May as well hold the shares. Most shares are 5-10% deposit rate.

[evaluate] 10/2/2010 09:46

Longest contract was september.

Not sure about deposit rate.