Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[sos100] 09/2/2010 10:55

why bring personal fueds on to a thread?

you know there are others that hold this stock.

[cockneyrebel] 09/2/2010 10:53

I warned you about HateTrader, warned you about this company's past too - same directors that destroyed the shareprice - if they get any money out of Celcast Asia they'll blow it.

Still if you follow HateTrader or any of his aliases you get what you deserve - has he ever bought a share that wasn't a penny share? Has he ever held onto one other than MUBL (and I told him they wouldn't go over £2 and they haven't)

Buy in haste and repent at your leisure imo.

Same directors - remember that - probably why someone dumped 1.1M way below the market price on Friday.

CR

[topgunns] 09/2/2010 09:22

I reckon 4.5p as the bottom of this consolidation.

[the analyst] 09/2/2010 00:01

Ericsson,

As you mention, the UK business is really holding the company back.

A big problem here is trust. A historical lack of transparency with respect to margins and the offshore companies is still a massive problem for many potential investors. I'm afraid that right or wrong, many investors out there simply don't trust the guys in charge of this company

But, on the other hand, we have CAH....

CAH is a highly profitable, well-run business with a highly respected management team running it. It could easily become a £100m+ company in no time whatsoever. The team at Canaan will be looking for an exit sometime soon and CLTV could easily end up with £30m+ from an exit in 2010 or 2011 (worth 40p per share)

I suspect that the next results will address many of the legacy issues that have been holding the company back (well, that is if what I'm led to believe is true). If that does happen, I think that would leave blue sky ahead, allowing those sceptical investors (i.e. institutions) to invest

Of course, if there is more positive progress behind the scenes, I'm sure we will see another big jump in the share price well before anything is released to the public. That's why I am holding, I think there is a lot more good news to come....

[topgunns] 08/2/2010 15:34

At 1% of company now. I'll move up to 1 million shares if we see 4.x

[lyonst5] 08/2/2010 15:32

Well i see they are still on a recruiting drive at the Mumbai office.

[topgunns] 08/2/2010 15:17

Bought some more. Yes there might be consolidation above 4p. But i plan to add and add.

[trixter] 08/2/2010 15:13

where is the 1.1 m sell?

[topinfo] 08/2/2010 14:35

Next stop 4p by looks of it.

[28shaila] 08/2/2010 14:32

MrShort : Where did u see this 1m sell and how do u know it is Craven who is off loading?

[the analyst] 08/2/2010 14:10

From Hoodless

"Cellcast (CLTV, 6.75p, £5.10m) Cellcast Asia, in which Cellcast holds 37.5%, has posted strong results for the second half and thus full year. Cellcast Asia reported $6.41m revenues, up 400% over the same period the previous year, with profits just over $2m. Cellcast Asia attributes the growth to the opportunities it is seeing within the Indian mobile market. Cellcast Asia expects continued growth in 2010, on the back of increasing Indian cellular subscriber numbers, growth of numbers on the national DTH platform and greater penetration of the regional markets as it addresses other local languages. We maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation."

[mrshortforever] 08/2/2010 13:45

1m sell gone through, looks like craven might have started to dump

not surprised as he bought a fair few at about this price and is probably glad to reduce risk

make me laugh really, all that mindless ramping over the weekend...well how many of you have bought today?

shows how much faith you all have in your insane price predictions

[the analyst] 08/2/2010 12:11

Checked to see if the IPL could have given a big one-off profit that could have affected those results, but it seems last year they were held in April and May, so that blows that theory

This year's event is in March and April - I presume Cellcast still have the contract, so it will be interesting to see whether it has a big effect on revenues this year

[still waiting] 08/2/2010 10:21

I'm expecting a severe tree shake at some point..

[mister md] 08/2/2010 09:03

5.5-6.25 spread but was able to buy at 5.7p....bit of a top-up

[the analyst] 07/2/2010 23:13

Hi Michael,

Thanks, that's a good spot - I agree, when you look at those comments, it does seem to imply that the really big growth occurred much later in the year, perhaps as late as Q4.

I try to keep my guestimates as conservative as possible on the boards, but you've got me thinking there. More evidence that there is more to these statements than meets the eye?

I wonder when the started banking the revenue from the IPL contract? I have a feeling that the cricket money had a major impact on the revenues in 2009, but I have no real data to back that up, or if it correlates with the big increase in revenues in H2.

Cheers

t.a.

[mjcrockett] 07/2/2010 22:32

The Analyst, in your post 2583 you guesstime monthly profits for CAH in 2009:

monthly profits:
July - $250k
Aug - $278k
Sept - $308k
Oct - $342k
Nov - $380k
Dec - $421k
Total in H2 = $2m

BUT if you look at CLTV's interims issued in late September they say:

'The Group's share of losses in CAH totalled £47,500 in January and February 2009, but subsequent profits resulted in a share of losses in CAH in the six months to 30 June 2009 of £15,000 compared to £179,000 in the same period in 2008. CAH has continued to be profitable in July and August, and the directors are optimistic that this trend will continue.'

This means that in four months March to June CAH made a total profit of about £90,000 (netting up CLTV's £32,500 share. They then say CAH continued to be profitable in July and August, but surely if, as you suggest, they had made $250K (i.e. much more in July than in the previous 4 months) the statement would have been far more positive. Wouldn't it?

I believe that CAH's profits in July and August were still quite modest and that CAH has subsequently enjoyed phenominal profit growth. Thus I suspect that the December to January rise could also be much much higher than the 10% you suggest.

If I am right and they can keep up their current growth rate for a little while longer then the potential here could be massive. However, there are too many unknowns to make sensible forecasts just now. Exciting times.

Michael

[topgunns] 06/2/2010 12:03

The latest release does make it clear that the costs are fixed. They have first mover advantage in India and on Freeview UK.

Some of the speculation and guesstimates show what is possible. To go from 1 million current run rate to 2.5 million full year profit 2010 is possible. A share price explosion looks likely. Patience is all that is required.

I'm going to stop speculating and continue accumulating.

[lyonst5] 06/2/2010 09:02

TA, so we could be looking at £2.5m+ to CLTV from CAH next year. Not bad when we have a Mkt cap of £4m and we have more irons in the fire.
I think we could also expect CAH to be keen to use their successful formula in other areas and markets.

[the analyst] 05/2/2010 18:30

Just been blasting another model through excel, this one based on two snippets from the last statement

1 - That margins in 2009 were greater than 31% ( 'over' $2m profit on $6.4m turnover )

2 - That costs are fixed (also mentioned in Thursday's rns)

So, this time I ran a model whereby the first $1.8m of revenue sees the company running at break-even, then after that all revenue made over and above that $1.8m level sees margins at 40%. I think this is quite conservative, but I prefer it that way

The model starts on an assumption that in January, the month on month rise over December had been 10%, but that by December 2010 this will have reduced to just 4% (decreasing arithmetically). Again, I see this is a conservative scenario, when you consider that in 2009 the month on month revenue growth averaged at 16%

The end result?

This model predicts that $10.8m profit will be made in 2010