Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[trixter] 28/1/2010 12:55

28 January 2010


Cellcast Asia named as one of the World's Top 100 private technology companies

WoW!

[the analyst] 25/1/2010 16:08

As far as I can see, the cost of a bid over at bid2win.in is a minimum of 3 rupees, which is equivalent to 4p. Some of the auctions I've seen cost double that (6 rupees).

I guess a conservative estimate would be that the average price of a bid is around 5p

So, just from bid2win.in, those 30 million responses over the last year would equal £1.5m in bids. Not bad considering the Indian mobile market is still at a very early stage and the concept of the minimum lowest bid game is so new to the country

Given that they claim 30m bids over the last 12 months, I wonder how many of those came in the last quarter and what the current rate is? If the rate of growth has indeed been exponential, growing month on month as we are led to believe, then it could be that they are doing £200k+ per month in bids at the moment

[the analyst] 25/1/2010 15:41

So, Cellcast Asia is obviously taking on new staff

Interesting couple of quotes from those ads:

"Cellcast India has rapidly growing operations in several countries like Sri Lanka, and Malaysia"

"A good example is one of our products Bid2Win, which has already received 30 million responses from 2.5 million individuals in a span of 1 year. "

[the analyst] 25/1/2010 15:37

Business Head - Music
Experience: 4 - 9 Years
Location: Mumbai, Mumbai Suburbs
Education: UG - Any Graduate - Any Specialization, PG - Post Graduation Not Required
Industry Type: Media/Dotcom/ Entertainment
Role: Other
Functional Area: Other

Job Description
Managing and developing the music business. Brand Initiatives, Marketing Strategy, Content Development and Business Development, besides Inward Licensing & Publishing Music Content marketing in the domestic markets, on both Physical & Digital (Online & Telco) Platforms. Co-ordination with brand partners like live concert venues, sponsors & trade & content partners like Telco VAS heads; Online, TV & Radio programmers; PR & Media professionals Event planning, budgeting, production & set design, logistics management, billing, systems & processes for corporate clients. Contestant management, training schedules, PR & show co-ordination for special events Supervising the release schedule & marketing strategy, annual operating plan (AOP) & budgets for new recordings

Liaison, formulate business proposals & negotiate terms with potential business partners.

Responsible for the acquisition of good quality music. Supervise the execution of marketing campaigns across media vehicles (media planning, events, promotional & PR activities).

Execute special brand marketing initiatives involving direct interaction with the youth for promotion of Saregana talent & content through various forums. Initiatives like involving college contact programs to create & develop music communities among students, building student brand managers in the process.

Desired Candidate Profile
Understanding of the music business and the present digital music scenario. Knowledge of music content development, publishing, marketing strategies, PR activities involved. Good relations with music partners like TV channels and Telco's desired.

Company Profile
Cellcast Interactive India is the pioneer in developing integrated participation content in the fast-growing Indian mobile and interactive TV market. We use traditional media like TV, News Paper & Radio for customer acquisition and new media to enable customers to pay-and-participate. We have successfully executed its unique business model in India and are experiencing rapid revenue growth. A good example is one of our products Bid2Win, which has already received 30 million responses from 2.5 million individuals in a span of 1 year.

Cellcast's content is distributed on new as well as traditional media with real-time participation enabled through SMS, IVRs, Web, WAP & 3G. With TV as mass medium and Print, Internet & Radio too used extensively, Cellcast's content has strong revenue generating capabilities. The Cellcast India has already created a strong track record in this arena. Cellcast India has rapidly growing operations in several countries like Sri Lanka, and Malaysia.

[the analyst] 25/1/2010 15:37

Vertical Head
Experience: 8 - 12 Years
Location: Mumbai, Mumbai Suburbs
Education: UG – Any Graduate, PG – MBA (preferably marketing), Industry Type:
Media/Dotcom/ Entertainment, Advertising, FMCG.
Role: Product Manager/Marketing Manager
Functional Area: Marketing
Job profile:
End to end responsibility for a line of business from product development to achievement of sales and profit targets. The position reports into Chief Marketing Officer.

Key Description
• Development of new service concepts
• Creating feasibility report, business plan and gain approval
• Co-ordinate and own product development process across functions
• Develop and own advertising promotion plan across media
• Develop sales plan , collaterals
• Own consumer experience and satisfaction
• Initiate and conduct market research to fine tune strategy
• Own revenue and profit targets

Key Competencies
• New product development
• Advertising and promotion
• Interpersonal skills
• Creativity and innovation
• Sales and business development

Desired Candidate Profile
• Total work experience of 8 to 12 years
• Marketing background with experience of new product development and launch in service industry
• Exposure to sales is preferable
• Industry background : Experience in service industry marketing is mandatory.

Company Profile
Cellcast Interactive India is the pioneer in developing integrated participation content in the fast-growing Indian mobile and interactive TV market. We use traditional media like TV, News Paper & Radio for customer acquisition and new media to enable customers to pay-and-participate. We have successfully executed its unique business model in India and are experiencing rapid revenue growth. A good example is one of our products Bid2Win, which has already received 30 million responses from 2.5 million individuals in a span of 1 year.

Cellcast's content is distributed on new as well as traditional media with real-time participation enabled through SMS, IVRs, Web, WAP & 3G. With TV as mass medium and Print, Internet & Radio too used extensively, Cellcast's content has strong revenue generating capabilities. The Cellcast India has already created a strong track record in this arena. Cellcast India has rapidly growing operations in several countries like Sri Lanka, and Malaysia.

[the analyst] 25/1/2010 15:36

Internet Business Head
Experience: 8 - 12 Years
Location: Mumbai, Mumbai Suburbs
Education: UG – Any Graduate, PG – MBA (preferably marketing)
Industry Type: Media/Dotcom/ Entertainment
Role:Functional Area: Internet/Product Management
Posted Date: 18 Jan

Job Description
Product Marketing responsible for delivering a regional product marketing strategy that combines a deep understanding of the consumer, competitive and a market landscape.
8 -12 years of business experience, with 7+ years of product marketing experience with consumer Internet products or services.
Track record of influencing the product development process through customer insights, and the ability to translate user needs into product requirements and marketing strategies.
Excellent organizational presentation and writing skills and ability to successfully interact across functions and at all levels of an organization.
Must possess a strong product sensibility, knowledge of marketing fundamentals as well as innate sense of the local consumer & competition in order to successfully define a sustainable product position & strategies to own & deliver.

Desired Candidate Profile
Business development for new product opportunities or market strategies.
Define product & segment specific research to understand the competitive landscape, customer segmentation & customer satisfaction drivers.
Develop market specific problem statements, use scenarios, business cases, sharing results & recommendations with global product marketing & senior leadership to facilitate definition of a product roadmap
Track consumer feedback, customer care, customer satisfaction, engagement of new & existing features & functionalities.

Company Profile
Cellcast Interactive India is the pioneer in developing integrated participation content in the fast-growing Indian mobile and interactive TV market. We use traditional media like TV, News Paper & Radio for customer acquisition and new media.

[thesageofsaint] 25/1/2010 14:25

I tried some dummy transactions a moment ago:

I can sell upto 250k at 4.95p, yet sell a max of just 5k at 5.25p. It would seem the next shift is likly to be upwards!

[gdasinv2] 24/1/2010 12:46

hey hey...mallorca...thats nonsense, I bit make sure that I enter at right entry - looking at the trade pattern. I never trade more than 350£ for penny shares.

[gdasinv2] 22/1/2010 15:55

Excellent entry - by PE ratio with 1million - 750000 profit , The share price is worth of 45 - 60p. This is very cheap

[sos100] 22/1/2010 15:21

i think this will be 10p within the next few weeks.

smithy i bet your a happy bunny!

[topgunns] 22/1/2010 13:36

For the record, my worst case scenario for 18 months time is 1 million profit and a PE of 10 ie 13p shareprice

[kiop] 22/1/2010 13:33

I think 30-40p in 18 months is very possible...

[topgunns] 22/1/2010 13:18

Analyst, my most optimistic scenario is in agreement with yours ie 2million profit and a PE of 15 ie 30 million which would be a shareprice of 40p a share. But that's on massive assumptions, hopes and dreams.

8p for current value would be nice. Though i think a PE of 12 requires a lot of belief.


EDIT: On reading my own post of PE 15 for 2 million profit, it suddenly doesn't seem so ridiculous!

[kiop] 22/1/2010 13:17

It would makes sense for a bidder to take the whole outfit.

The crux is india, need a little more information on the market penetration and actual not projected revenues.
I recognise its early days, but i suspect things are moving well there(better Than expected).

[the analyst] 22/1/2010 13:13

Hi Topgun, I agree with your target for the short-term.

You mentioned you were thinking £500k for the upcoming year, right?

I'm thinking much longer-term (3-5 years), so both scenarios are possible, just that mine would occur at a much later time point than yours...

[the analyst] 22/1/2010 13:11

What sort of bid would you be expecting, kiop, given they are at an early stage of development in India also an early stage and recovery/expansion in the UK?

Are you thinking a bid for the entire company, or for part of it?

My guess is that if we saw a bid for the entire company right now, we might only get 20p per share (£15m market cap) - that would be slightly disappointing, but I would take it

[topgunns] 22/1/2010 13:11

Erm, though the analyst is right on a best case scenario, i'll stick to my ambitious 8p target on a PE of 12 for profit of 500k.

[the analyst] 22/1/2010 13:01

I think the value here is where they could be in a few years time if all goes well, rather than looking at the short-term picture

If the UK side of things is run well (efficiently, get the margins to where they should be) they should easily be capable of making £2m pa profit at some stage over the next few years.

With the new Freeview and Freesat channels giving them a virtual monopoly position, that £2m profit may come a lot sooner than we imagine - they can show the same programming on the different systems, meaning much more cash will drop straight through to the bottom line

On £2m profit, the UK business will easily be worth £10m+ on a low PE of 5x

If the Asian business does well, then that too could be worth £10m to Cellcast. We have seen how the Brazilian business was valued previously and India is much much bigger. They are market leaders and first movers in the Indian market with a great management team. There is a possibility that the whole enterprise could be valued at £100m+ in five years time. It is not an exaggeration to say that the Indian market is immensely huge.

The position in a few years time if things go right...

The UK business could be worth £10 - £20m, whilst the Asian business could be worth £10-£20m also - That would equate to a share price of between 27p and 54p. Now, that said, a performance like that would require a lot of hard work, skill and some luck.

There is no room for any more of these bad luck stories we have had in the past if we want to achieve these targets, but I think the management are 100% focussed and really want to get themselves a decent exit. The good news is that creating an exit for the Directors should mean creating shareholder value at the same time - the Driectors own almost 30% of the company between them

I also think that both sides of the business are becoming extremely attractive take-over targets. A bid could make things very interesting and rather than talking PEs of 5x, we may be looking at 15x, if there are enough synergies between the companies involved

[kiop] 22/1/2010 12:50

Picking these up in drips and draps now.. Cant get a sensible quote for over 200k...