Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[28shaila] 05/2/2010 16:05

trixter : Guess who had a large holding in QXL, Neil Craven, also hold 20% here....;-)).

[topgunns] 05/2/2010 14:42

The analyst is playing his numbers down but my own back of envelope calculations are similar. All depends what you put as the December 09 number. Truth is 2 million profit for THIS year is feasible as is an share price of 50p. But i'll be happy with 1 million and share price of 20p sometime this year. We haven't even speculated about next year......

I genuinely hate to sound like a ramper predicting an share price 10 times the current one. But if anyone wants to put a case against the numbers, feel free.

[trixter] 05/2/2010 14:36

Analyst....your figs are interesting...qxl-style progress?

[still waiting] 05/2/2010 14:11

also mentioned in the The Mail.

so plenty watching.

[slm2009] 05/2/2010 14:09

From Times Today:

Tiddler to watch

Cellcast makes technology that lets people participate in television programmes over their mobile phones. The shares jumped 0.63p to 5.25p after a company in which it holds a 37.5 per cent stake revealed a fourfold leap in sales. This follows a boom in interactive broadcasting in India, where Cellcast Asia says that it leads the field.

[the analyst] 05/2/2010 14:04

Well, we do know that the management at both CLTV and Canaan have stated they will look for an exit at some stage.

My guess is that this will come in 2010, but not sure how they will exit - Private sale? Floating it on the Indian stock exchange?

Hopefully, we can see the H1 2010 results from CAH before they decide to exit

[still waiting] 05/2/2010 13:59

with growth that strong cltv must be vunerable to a takeover approach from a larger outfit.

[the analyst] 05/2/2010 13:14

I wonder what the revenues and profits were in January? Any guesses on the current run-rate?

Just for fun, here's one hypothetical scenario where the profits in July were say, $250k, and they rose by 11% per month. That would give rise to the $2m profit mentioned in yesterday's statement

monthly profits:
July - $250k
Aug - $278k
Sept - $308k
Oct - $342k
Nov - $380k
Dec - $421k
Total in H2 = $2m

So, if (and it's a big IF) that was the case and that hypothetical 11% trend continued into January, then we would have $468k in January and a current run-rate of $5.6m pa if there were no further growth during the year

Now, (brace yourself) if there was a trend like 11% per month and that continued throughout the year, you would see $10.6m profit for the 2010 calendar year, which would equate to £2.5m (GBP) profit for CLTV's share of the company. Worth a market cap of £30m (40p per share) on it's own, given it's a high growth company?

Yes, these might look like pie in the sky at this stage, but it's just a bit of fun.

However, they shocked all of with yesterday's figures, so it's not out of the question that they could do so again with the next set of figures. An again with the figures after that...

As mentioned by MetaPhysicalMan, revenues grew at a monthly average of 16% January to September 2009, so is an 11% per month rise in profits completely out of the question? I don't know what sort of revenue rise you would need to see 11% rise in profits over the next year, given that the bigger the get, the bigger the margins will be. Maybe 8% per month?

[the analyst] 05/2/2010 12:56

Just to compile the mentions of revenue and profit from the last three statements:

Firstly, we had the trading update in December, where they stated:
"fourfold increase in revenues that CAH achieved in the period from January to September 2009"

Than we had the statement in January in the Red Herring announcement:
"In 2009, transactions per month grew from 2 million in January to over 10 million by December"

Then yesterday we had a comparison of H2 2009 vs H2 in 2008:
"delivered revenues of US$6,409,000 in the second half of 2009, a 400% increase on the same period in 2008"

[topgunns] 05/2/2010 11:40

Chart says it needs to consolidate above 4p. Fundamentals say straight to 13-20p.

Patience is the key.

[topgunns] 05/2/2010 11:26

Bought another 50k. Up to 700k now. Another 50k if it drops again. Another 250k if it drops a lot.

[metaphysicalman] 05/2/2010 10:44

From what I can glean from the accounts, Cellcast ME is tiny (if it relates to their 27% share in Cellcast Lebanon) and given the lack of announcements about this part of the business I wouldn't expect it to have grown substantially since the last accounts were signed.

To be honest I would be happiest if management just focused on ensuring the UK business became as profitable as possible, and monetising the India stake, rather than getting diverted into new projects around the globe at this stage. That's how they got into trouble a couple of years ago.

[trixter] 05/2/2010 10:11

Any idea how Cellcast ME might be doing? Any new ventures on the horizon?

[topgunns] 05/2/2010 09:39

Yesterday was the first definitive serious profit, no excuses, no ifs ands or buts. Just profit and a rapidly growing one at that.

[lyonst5] 05/2/2010 09:23

Aye the numbers for me yesterday were just to good to ignore, so it seems like their are a few of us adding.

[metaphysicalman] 05/2/2010 09:19

Yes, I'm slighly amazed that the price has dropped back down to this level again - but then there are perhaps a lot of people who have been sat on paper losses for a while now who are seizing the opportunity to exit at a profit / much reduced loss - and I can't blame them, I've done it myself with other shares; but I do think that once such sellers are out of the way, there should be a steady climb upwards over the next few weeks as more people wake up to the fact that CLTV has a 37.5% stake in a very profitable, rapidly growing enterprise in a growth sector in a growth country. CLTV's market cap is only 4 times (maximum) their share of Cellcast India's possible 2010 earnings. That's way too low.

[still waiting] 05/2/2010 09:17

just took a few more as well

[topgunns] 05/2/2010 09:11

5.6p to buy very small amounts. After yesterdays definitive confirmed profits, i have started to top up today. Tiny buy of 35000 to start.

Looking to add on weakness.

[topgunns] 04/2/2010 13:29

I think that the share price has tripled in a short space of time and though it is clear that the company is worth a huge amount more, profit taking is to be expected.

Minimum price should be 13p for 1 million at PE 10
Actual price should be 20p for 1 million at PE 15
Future price should be 50p for 2.5 million at PE 15

[the analyst] 04/2/2010 13:00

On the trading front, it's great to see a rise on such a high volume

It's looks like we've already seen 4% of the issued shares exchanging hands today

[the analyst] 04/2/2010 12:58

Hi MetaphysicalMan,

Cheers, yes - does look like my holding-on here has turned out to be a good idea after all. These figures blow all of my estimates out of the water too

I'd like to know what sort of profit the $2m figure is (EBITDA?). I wonder if the accounts are available in an Indian version of Company's House?

Just from the figures and statement, it does look like having achieved critical mass, a lot of of the revenue drops through to the bottom line

So, I don't see why a profit of $8m from CAH in 2010 shouldn't be possible ($3m in H1 and $5m in H2). That could see CLTV's share of market cap at around 20p per share, based on a conservative PE of 8x

I'm still a little cautious about the current cash position after having spent so much money acquiring the Freeview and Freesat channels (an investment I'm sure will pay-off enormously over time). So, I wonder if there is a chance of a small placing at some stage? I'd be happy for them to raise £500k or so at these price levels if it means the company is both debt-free and profitable going forward

Cheers

T.A.





"MetaphysicalMan - 4 Feb'10 - 08:12 - 2548 of 2568

Oh wow! I don't normally get so excited about a share but WOW! Blows all my estimated out of the water. I think this definitely underpins at least 20p per share, and that is definitely not ramping, that is still cautious.

theanalyst - well done on holding through all the bad terms, your 2.9% is looking like a goldmine now!"

[mister md] 04/2/2010 11:54

you're correct - this is looking very promising

[lyonst5] 04/2/2010 11:49

Mr MD, That 37.5% is making £1m+ a year at the current growth rate !!

[lyonst5] 04/2/2010 11:42

trixter, struth i missed that, so full year profits at current rate $4m and growing fast. I'll edit my previous post, thanks.