Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[mister md] 09/2/2010 13:18

people were equally negative about Media Corporation (MDC) at 1p until it tripled to 3p.... some companies turnaround finally after long periods of under-par performance, rewarding those who see the opportunity

[cockneyrebel] 09/2/2010 13:09

I'm definitely not trying to buy in trixter. It puzzles me that the likes of you hate me posting here but then make silly comments like that that deserve a response from me.

CR

[still waiting] 09/2/2010 13:07

another 2 mm's moving up there.

[trixter] 09/2/2010 13:04

...looks like it...

[the analyst] 09/2/2010 12:58

Hybridan Small Cap Wrap featuring Cellcast,

"This week: Cellcast calls the shots, Angel Biotech flies and Synchronica is on message."

[trixter] 09/2/2010 12:56

...next leg up ?

[still waiting] 09/2/2010 12:55

no but there's a bit of a rush going on now.

this is simply way too cheap for growth that's occurring.

[trixter] 09/2/2010 12:54

analyst...excellent as always...and a 30X return for Canaan would be over $150M on their initial stake alone and about the same for CLTV, i.e. a max exit price of 100p for CLTV stake.

[the analyst] 09/2/2010 12:53

I take the point CR makes about the Directors here - it's always good to get alternative views and to discuss past performance of Directors

But the good news is the CLTV management do not run CAH. I see that as a major positive.

If it ends up that CLTV get cash from an exit, then it will be up to holders whether they want to keep holding, or take the profit. Simple as that, imo

[still waiting] 09/2/2010 12:52

buyers shouldn't wait too long, the tide looks like turning shortly.

[the analyst] 09/2/2010 12:48

So, at the time Canaan invested, CAH was worth $13.5m. According to Canaan's statement on their investments, the minimum exit price would be 10x that, which is $135m (or £86m at todays exchange rate).

That would value CLTVs stake at over £30m, which is over 40p per share. Now, even if they traded at a whopping 25% discount to cash and the UK business was determined to be worth nothing, then CLTV holders would get 30p per share.

That's around the minimum valuation I am looking for, given the rapid rise from loss-making (Feb) to making $2m profit in the six months from July to December. Of course, we never know what the future holds (things can go wrong), but right now we look to be dead on target for that sort of minimum price of 30p on exit. If things go very well, then it could be much more, imo


From the accounts:
"Injection of $5.25 million into Cellcast Asia Holdings, by leading private equity house, Canaan Partners providing post-money valuation of $13.5 million, valuing Cellcast's 37.5% share holding at $5.1 million against a cost of $1.4 million"

[the analyst] 09/2/2010 12:35

The point is, that CAH has a very strong and highly respected team behind them.

The most likely exit, imo, is that they float on an exchange, which will mean that CLTV holders either get a shareholding in the newco, or a cash payment, or that CLTV becomes a hugely cash-rich company.

If it's the later, the CLTV share price will reflect the cash in the bank

Yes, there may be a discount to Nav if that's what happens, but you would still see the share price jump massively and holders can take an exit at that stage by selling. No problem.

[the analyst] 09/2/2010 12:31

And this is the Canaan team, not a single Cellcast employee amongst them

[the analyst] 09/2/2010 12:29

Quote from Canaan:

Canaan Partners Expects Their Investments To Generate
Expected Revenue By Year 5: $50,000,000 - $250,000,000
Expected Returns: 10x Investment - 30x Investment
Expected Years to Exit: 2 Years - 7 Years
Expected Years to Break Even: 1 Year - 3 Years

[topgunns] 09/2/2010 12:06

It's a given that the company has been total rubbish for many years. The share price chart shows us that.

[cockneyrebel] 09/2/2010 12:03

28shaila:

08 Feb 2010 13:17:00 5 1,100,000 0 0 05, Feb 2010 15:20:37 OK d EB

The trade is posted delayed, yesterday. It was done on Friday at 3.20pm Friday whenb the price was 5.5/6.

Shows on Proquote, dunno what you're using to see it but it's there, published yesterday.

1.3% of the co approx.

CR

[28shaila] 09/2/2010 11:56

CR : This 1.1m sale u said went through on Friday, I cant find it any where, total volume on Friday was 945k (Plus included), look forward to hear what am I missing. Thx in adv.

P.S; I agree with you about the Management.

[cockneyrebel] 09/2/2010 11:33

I agree Topgun.

Like I said, had I seen the FD walk, the CEO get swapped and some catalyst for change I'd be tempted. But sadly I've done this long enough to know that bad directors don't suddenly become good directors (but obvioulsly if you can show me a co where that has happened without director changes I'll be interested).

Good luck, perhaps this is a first. Bet you're life HateTrader is out well before those he's suckered in tho.

CR

[lyonst5] 09/2/2010 11:32

CR, With due respect i think most on this board have been here a while longer than the poster you mentioned and probably not through choice of being able to get out with a profit. But alas it looks like we are seeing a turn around in our fortunes with cltv, So why begrudge the other holders who have had a hell of a rough ride here because you made a bad investment in the past.
If the poster you mentioned has exited and with a profit, i fully congratulate him/her, as thats what we are all here to achieve.
If your conviction is that cltv is still a dog of a share you'd be best to open a short postion.

[cockneyrebel] 09/2/2010 11:18

LoL - how can you trust anyone that has a new handle every day of the week?

You'll pump and dump again HateTrader - like you did to those at WET - it's the reason you only ever trade penny shares, - easy to pump, and if you start the ramp you can get out first.

Just read the history on this co if you're invested in it - same directors.

CLTV won't get the cash out of Asia unless there's a pay out and that's not what happensd with this type of co - they don't pay divis, they just keep pumping it back in to keep running at the same speed so what will Cellcast Asia ever be worth ti CLTV? Now't I think, you can buy all sorts of co's way iunder NAV.

Read the history of the directors and what they have got up to in the past - if it was new directors I'd give them the benefit of the doubt but it isn't.

Sorry SOS but you should know the truth about CLTV imo.

CR