Celadon Pharmaceuticals Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 29/3/2023 11:13

Will put better charts in later.

[someuwin] 29/3/2023 11:12

Excellent Celadon CEO interview

[czar] 19/3/2023 16:34

I have underestimated James Short's ambition. His first target is £90m of sales and £50m profits. On a high teens multiple that would value CEL at circa £15 a share. However that would not scratch the UK demand. He has deals in train to acquire more properties quickly to expand production 20 fold. That would value CEL at many billions but I suspect they will be bid for long before then.

[parob] 17/3/2023 07:51

hTTps://total-market-solutions.com/2023/03/seed-innovations-ltd-march-2023/

[czar] 16/3/2023 10:01

There clearly are very few private investors involved in CEL, several are using this thread to promote other stocks but none of these have the Home Office Licence. The truth is only a handful of companies worldwide can supply medical-grade cannabis to the pharmaceutical industry, this is an extremely valuable Company IMHO. Celadon will almost certainly receive a take over approach, its a question of WHEN not IF. The big question is at what level a bid will come in at and what would the management accept? GW Pharma gives a great clue as to the sort of number we can expect.

" -- Receipt of updated Home Office licence enables Celadon to commence the commercial supply of its GMP pharmaceutical cannabis product

-- GMP registration is understood to be the first such registration of a UK pharmaceutical facility for high THC cannabis active pharmaceutical ingredient ("API") since the legalisation of medical cannabis in 2018

-- GMP registration and a Home Office licence are required in order to sell high-THC medicinal cannabis in the UK

-- Celadon becomes one of a small number of companies globally with the capability to produce an EU-GMP grade high-THC cannabinoid API"

[parob] 15/3/2023 08:34

SEED also worth a look.

[czar] 14/3/2023 16:29

This is the start of a big rerating. Should go to £15 over the next year unless a GW style bid comes in then it’s anybody’s guess.

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 16:15

James - HELD needs to be HELD. Lock them away for 12 - 24 months and if they can prove they are operationally competent the rewards COULD be considerable.

As for CEL, if I was on the BOD I would be arranging a fundraise.

UK labour. UK water. And UK energy isn't going to be cheap.

HELD's facility in northern Greece should prove strategically superior on the cost perspective....with just about the lowest cost of labour, water and energy in Europe.

Further, their cultivation license is enormous (one of the largest ever granted) and runs to a staggering 54,000 kg of dried flower a year, when fully maxed out in P3.

Compare that to CEL's facility.

ADYOR.

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 16:11

ridingthewaves1 - there was a big volume spike here even when CEL was flatlining before the uplift. I agree the rise we've seen ahead of the announcement smacks of the leak of privileged information - just my opinion only.

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 15:42

Some thoughts on CEL and HELD (from the HELD thread) below.

(Don't forget CEL possibly need a cash injection so don't get greedy on the spike!)


Oakridge14 Mar '23 - 15:20 - 480 of 481 Edit
0 1 0

News out at CEL.

Great news for the cannabis space.

What we can say is that CEL, or, those involved in the work around this RNS = a leaky ship! Including that big volume spike / buy a few weeks ago. Naughty!


Oakridge14 Mar '23 - 15:40 - 481 of 481 Edit
0 0 0


It's important to watch the reaction at CEL, and particularly the rocket that has been put under the companies share price over recent days.

The home office has now extended their license so that they can enter into commercial (non research) agreements to sell a high THC content product to third parties and are the first UK based pharmaceutical facility / cultivators in the UK to do this.

They say:

"Within the UK, patients prescribed medicinal cannabis are reliant on imported product, often facing lengthy delays and high costs, and by becoming a UK-based producer, Celadon is in a prime position to alleviate the issues currently faced by patients."

Well, it's going to be interesting to see what price-point CEL can come in at and maintain. They've already announced that expansion into their second growing room had to delayed this year by spiralling costs we have all grown so familiar with.

Their facilities are, I think, only around 10% of HELD's entire license. I'll check on that.

So, whilst they may be first over the line and should be congratulated, the scale of their operations, at present, is a fraction of what HELD have been granted in Greece. CEL are also operating from a country with considerably higher costs.

Current mkt cap: £265M

HELD: c.£11M.

HELD still have work to do, but should, all being well, be rubber stamped and selling product at around the end of Q2.

AIMO ADYOR

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 15:19

Great news for the cannabis space.

Congrats on the license expansion.

2023 is the year.

Hellenic (HELD) next imho! Watch this space.

[jasko] 14/3/2023 15:12

Back up to IPO price...and hopefully beyond

[jasko] 14/3/2023 15:09

Woohoo the time is now

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 09:05

The rise has been on fairly light volume czar....but then CEL has relatively few shares in issue. There could be any number of reasons why this has rallied recently. Several other cannabis stocks are coming off oversold lows (they all faced a woeful 2022 - a 'hangover' if you like - after all the initial (and slightly premature) enthusiasm of the sector in the previous year(s).

Re. CEL specifically, there could be upcoming clinical findings to report, expansion to their license, or perhaps another raise on the way (check their cash balance and burn rates).

Hellenic Dynamics (HELD) will be moving up at some point imho. As a wholesaler to licensed distributors, they have already signed term sheets into the German market with first sales anticipated in late Q2. Unlike CEL and other UK firms such as Ananda, HELD's license is to grow for the purposes of full commercial sales....not just research. It also has amongst the largest license ever granted in Europe.....growing out of an ex UN facility in Northern Greece, with a compelling cost-base.

They have taken on ex Avida Global staff.....who have done it all before in latin America.

It's a company to watch in 2023 - 2024 imo.

NAI and ADYOR.

[czar] 13/3/2023 14:07

Its good to see an unloved stock up again in a weak market but I can't find any explanation for the strong move. CEL is still well under the placing price of 165p. Something is attracting buyers. GW Pharma is the only direct comparison and they got bought for £7.2b a couple of years ago. CEL mentioned they hope to get Home Office approval this quarter so that may be it or could it be a US bidder? Either way this is still a strong BUY IMHO with a low ball target of £10 a share in my book.

Anyone heard anything?

[oakridge] 10/3/2023 16:23

Welcome to all those looking in on CEL.

When you are researching this company over the weekend, get HELD on your watchlists / monitors for what could be an interesting 2023 ahead imho.

HELD:

Currently 0.09p to buy

* c.10M mkt cap
* one of the largest cultivation licenses granted in Europe
* Cash runway at least to first harvest/sales (anticipated late Q2)
* Term sheets already signed into the German mkt
* Based in northern Greece = one of the lowest cost base of production
* Key staff brought in with proven track record of creating a major cultivation firm ie Industry Expert Carl Haffner, founder and COO of Avida Global and ex CEO of Avida Global SAS

Davinder Rai, CEO of Hellenic Dynamics, commented:

"As a seasoned medical cannabis industry expert I am delighted that Carl has joined our team. Having previously successfully established an EU-GMP cultivation facility, his appointment will provide additional support to ensure our targets are met."

Carl Haffner, commented:

"I am delighted to become part of the Hellenic Dynamics team and am excited by the prospects of establishing, in Greece, what could become one of Europe's leading large-scale medical cannabis cultivation facilities."

ADYOR and NAI.

Good luck.

[oakridge] 10/3/2023 12:57

I suspect Celadon will get its own thread in time.

I've researched this company (and others within the sector) well.

It sits right within the SPACE I'm interested in for 2023.

People looking in at CEL's rise should also look at freshly listed HELLENIC DYNAMICS (HELD). HELD are Medicinal Cannabis cultivators with one of the largest cultivation licenses granted anywhere in Europe. They will be growing out of a site, which is deemed strategically astute/significant, in northern Greece. They are the only pure-play cultivators (ie suppliers) listed on the LSE main mkt.

HELD are trading at a barely visible 0.085p a share (ie less than a tenth of a penny) but the first harvest is expected in late Q2 and they have recently reiterated more than adequate cash runway to get them to first sales (term sheets already signed into the German mkt).

Huge upside if they can prove they are operationally competent. I believe they will prove just that with a good BOD and key proven staff (eg Carl Haffner - ex Avida Global!) brought in to help make it all happen.

Celadon are interesting in that they have direct access into a key clinical trial. Their UK based growing facility will be phased, much like Hellenic's , but their capacity is, I think around 10% of Hellenic's total granted license....which will run at a staggering 54,000kg of dried THC dominant flowers a year (when fully maxed out in PIII). In other words, Hellenic have the potential to become one of the largest European based suppliers, coupled with the cheapest cost base (ie water, energy and labour) that come with being located in rural Greece.

This gives you some idea of the potential of Hellenic, should they get it right.

But any trial data coming out of companies like CEL will be important and a rising tide should lift all boats.

Interesting times for the space.

NAI, ADYOR, AIMO and GL.

[czar] 17/1/2023 16:39

This is certainly an unloved stock but that spells opportunity. With GMP approval the business can start making money from both LVL and Celadon Grow. The first division is expected to produce £4m EBITDA pa and the second £50m EBITDA compared to a market cap of £87m. This is clearly a ten-bagger from here IMHO.

James Short, Chief Executive Officer of Celadon said:

"With the receipt of GMP registration, Celadon has joined a very select group of cannabis-focused pharmaceutical companies globally. This is a tremendous milestone for the Company given the significant capital and regulatory requirements in this sector.

"Today's announcement is the culmination of four years of hard work. I would like to thank the team and our loyal shareholders for their support and belief in our vision as we continue our journey of putting the patient first in ensuring they can access the cannabis-based medicines they so desperately need."

[czar] 15/1/2023 09:34

Wow this interesting little Company is certainly flying under the radar!!!

Based on the above, Celadon remains confident that the Company will obtain registration from the MHRA for the GMP manufacturing of its cannabis API. The directors anticipate receiving this registration during Q1 2023.

James Short, CEO of Celadon, commented:

"The Company is pleased to confirm that the inspection from the MHRA and third-party testing of the batches of Celadon's cannabis oil have now been completed in line with management expectations. We remain confident that the Company will obtain registration from the MHRA for the GMP manufacturing of its cannabis API during Q1 2023, following which we believe we will be one of a limited number of GMP approved pharmaceutical cannabis facilities in the world. This will be a significant milestone for the Company and will unlock significant revenue opportunities."

If this registration comes through this quarter CEL will fly and should be above the placing price by the end of this year. Its very strange to find a Company with such potential completely ignored. Fingers crossed.

[chaka] 10/8/2011 09:24

Caparo Energy Limited

("Caparo Energy" or the "Company")

Caparo Energy closes second tranche of Mezzanine

Further orders placed with Suzlon

Directorate changes

Notice of EGM

Closed Second Tranche of Mezzanine:

The Board of Directors of Caparo Energy (the "Board") is pleased to announce that Caparo Energy (India) Limited ("CEIL"), the Company's wholly owned subsidiary, has closed a second tranche of mezzanine funding. This second tranche of mezzanine financing, which is for a 4 year term, of Rs. 1,500m (US$33.5m) is being provided by the Infrastructure Development Finance Company Limited ("IDFC").

As stated in the Company's previous announcement of 20 June 2011, the terms of both tranches of mezzanine financing entail no equity dilution for Caparo Energy's existing shareholders. The Board believes that this will result in enhanced equity returns for investors. The Company expects to repurchase/buy-back both tranches of mezzanine from internal cash flows and the issue of senior debt instruments, bonds or other debt refinancing, within three to five years.

The Board believes that securing these two tranches of financing, totalling Rs 5,000 (US$112m), is a significant step forward for the business and anticipates that this additional funding, along with the Company's existing resources, would enable the Company to develop approximately 700 MW of wind projects.

Purchase orders for 260 MW placed with Suzlon

Since our previous announcement, CEIL has placed specific purchase orders with Suzlon Energy Limited ("Suzlon") for a further 260 MW of wind projects for delivery by March 2012. When combined with the 100 MW ordered in February 2011, CEIL's total purchase orders have grown to 360 MW, of which 52 MW have already been commissioned, with the balance expected to be commissioned in stages by March 2012. The Company will release further updates of orders being placed for delivery by March 2012 in due course.

The new purchase orders for 260 MW cover five individual projects located in the states of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka and Rajasthan. All of these sites have wind data using a met mast measured at different heights for an average period of over four years and are fully permitted.

The Company has selected these sites based on detailed analysis and independent wind studies completed by internationally recognised firms in this field, and the Board is confident that these projects represent some of the best sites being commissioned in India over the next two years and that the Plant Load Factors ("PLF") for these sites are very attractive.

Following the placing of these orders, which are ahead of the schedule previously announced, the Board anticipates that by March 2012 the Company will have a total of 500 MW of fully operational projects connected to the grid and generating cash flow. Additionally, the Board expects to achieve the full 1 GW of project orders with Suzlon by March 2013.

Management Team of CEIL

CEIL has been building its management team and would like to report that it has identified and recruited certain key personnel to further execute the Company's strategy:

R. Ramakrishnan has been appointed as President of CEIL. Prior to this appointment, he was CEO/Managing Director at GMR Industries (GMR Group is a diversified infrastructure group in India with interests in power, airports and roads) for four years before becoming Group Corporate Head of its Renewable Energy business. Previously, he was the Chief Executive of Sanmar Group and, prior to that, was with the Murugappa Group for 20 years where he worked in Sales & Marketing, International Business Development, Product Management, Manufacturing & Technical services.

CEIL has also made a number of hires in various departments across the company including wind resources, project planning and execution, finance, legal and operations and maintenance, as it continues to look towards the Company's progressive growth for the future.

Directorate changes

The Company would also like to report changes in the composition of the Board:

Angad Paul, CEO of the Caparo Group, is stepping down from his current role as Non-Executive Chairman of the Company and will continue as a Non-Executive Director. Accordingly, Ravi Kailas has been appointed Chairman of the Company, in addition to his current role as CEO of the Company.

In addition, Charles Wilkinson, Independent Non-Executive Director of the Company based in Guernsey, will not be standing for re-election at the forthcoming AGM.

In light of these developments, the Company intends to appoint two additional independent Non Executive Directors to the Board in due course.

Notice of EGM

The Board announces that a circular containing a notice of Extraordinary General Meeting ("EGM"), to be convened for 5 September 2011, at 10 a.m at Anson Place, Mill Court, La Charroterie, St Peter Port, Guernsey, GY1 1EJ, Channel Islands, is today being sent to shareholders. The purpose of the EGM is to seek shareholder approval to update the relevant Board authorities to issue shares and dis-apply pre-emption rights and to change the name of the Company from Caparo Energy Limited to Mytrah Energy Limited.

The notice of EGM and form of proxy, together with an explanatory covering letter from the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, is being posted to shareholders today and will shortly be made available on the Company's website at www.caparoenergy.com.

Ravi Kailas, Caparo Energy's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"The closing of the second tranche of mezzanine financing in a timely manner puts our company in a position to fund over 700 MW of wind projects without any dilution to existing shareholders. We are also pleased with the strengthening of our management team with people who have a proven track record in the industry. By placing 360 MW of orders with Suzlon for delivery by March 2012, the Company demonstrates again its ability to build utility scale wind power projects with an unprecedented efficiency.

"As the Company's transformative growth continues, its identity has also evolved. Accordingly, the Company is proposing to change it's name to Mytrah Energy Limited and we are excited by the Company's prospects of trading under this new identity. The Board would like to re-iterate its gratitude to have begun as Caparo Energy and would like to thank the Caparo Group for their on-going support to the Company."

Further information on the Company can be found at www.caparoenergy.com.

[chaka] 10/8/2011 09:22

Mirabaud Summary

Powered Up

Caparo Energy has signed fixed cost, fixed term contracts for 3GW of wind capacity. With deliveries of 500MW by March 2012, this will make it one of India's leading IPPs. With a weighted average cost of US$1.16/MW, it has secured possibly the lowest new-build cost in the market and, as these are turn-key contracts, this ensures the most efficient use of capital.
Contracts in Place for 3GW

In addition to the terms for the delivery of 1GW from Suzlon, Caparo Energy has recently secured land leases for 3GW and has signed another wind turbine supply deal from Gamesa for 2GW for delivery by the end of 2016.
Deliveries Ahead of Schedule & Funded for 700MW

Caparo Energy is already generating and selling electricity and, contractually, it should have 500MW turning in the ground by March 2012. The Company has also successfully raised US$112m of mezzanine finance - without any dilution to existing shareholders. The Company is now financed for a total of 700MW. This should generate cashflows of US$95m+ per annum, which should fund organic growth of up to 2.2GW by December 2016.

Raising Price Target from 184p for 1GW to 284p for 2.2GW

2.2GW values the Company at US$884m (£553m) and 284p/share. At US$0.3m/MW, this is low and EV/Capacity multiples suggest a higher valuation than the price target. Our recommendation is also underwritten by earnings multiples and the Company should be re-rated as more capacity comes on-stream. BUY.

(US$m)
March 2012e March 2013e March 2014e March 2015e

Capacity
500MW 1,150MW 1,450MW 1,900MW

Sales
14.2 146.8 317.5 407.0

EBITDA
11.7 137.9 306.1 384.4

Net Profit
1.4 42.5 88.3 107.0

EPS (c)
0.9 26.0 53.9 65.3

P/E
nmf 7.1x 3.4x 2.8x

EV/EBITDA
nmf 9.7x 5.3x 5.2x

EV/Cap.
US$1.5/MW US$1.2/MW US$1.1/MW US$1.0/MW

[chaka] 10/8/2011 09:15

Caparo rides wind of change
Created: 28 July 2011 Written by: Graeme Davies

BULL POINTS:
Indian power deficit is driving investment
Capacity set to grow rapidly
Agreements with major power equipment makers

BEAR POINTS:

More fund-raisings likely
Wind power can be unpredictable

Shortages of electricity are a major headache for India's government and a threat to the country's growth. The government's latest five-year plan forecasts a massive expansion in generating capacity; and renewable power - primarily wind power - will play a major part. That should put wind power producer Caparo Energy in a promising position.

Installed wind power in India has the capacity to generate 14.2 gigawatts (GW). That represents three-quarters of India's renewable power capacity and makes the country the world's fifth-largest wind power market. But the Indian Wind Energy Association estimates that the country has the potential to install 65GW, which means there is plenty of capacity for Caparo to go for.

IC TIP RATING

Tip style Speculative
Risk rating High
Timescale Long term

Caparo has secured a pipeline of wind assets that should establish it as one of India's major independent renewable power producers over the next five years. It also has contracts with major Indian wind turbine makers Suzlon and Gamesa. Under these, most of the development risk - and, with it, the working capital burden - will be carried by its partners. Caparo will buy the assets when they are close to completion. By doing this Caparo will, in a relatively short time, be able to boast a significant generating capacity.

Its early-stage pipeline is with Suzlon and the first 42 megawatts (MW) of capacity is already producing power. A further 25MW will be commissioned in August and another 34MW by the end of the year. A further 400MW should follow by March 2012, giving the company 500MW at the beginning of its next financial year. That should be sufficient to generate useful amounts of cash in the year to March 2013, at the end of which another 500MW of capacity should have come on stream.

According to management, that should catapult the company to number one wind power producer in India within two years. Caparo's bosses also reckon the company has some of the best sites available - an important factor because wind can be quite an unpredictable source of power generation.

CAPARO ENERGY (CEL)
ORD PRICE: 111p MARKET VALUE: £182m
TOUCH: 107-111p 12-MONTH HIGH/LOW: 124p 91p
DIVIDEND YIELD: nil PE RATIO: 7
NET ASSET VALUE: † NET CASH: †

Year to 31 Mar Turnover ($m) Pre-tax profit ($m) Earnings per share ($c) Dividend per share ($c)
2011* nil -2.0 na nil
2012* 14.2 1.4 0.9 nil
2013* 146.8 50.4 26.0 nil
% change +934 +3,500 +2,789 -
Normal market size: 2,000
Matched bargain trading
Beta: 0.3

*Mirabaud estimates
†Meaningful figures unavailable
£1=$1.63

Caparo has already secured orders for the first 1GW of capacity under fixed-price contracts with Suzlon, and a recent fund-raising means finance for the first 700MW of this is secured. The contract with Suzlon allows for a further 2GW of wind-farm assets. Agreements are also in place with Gamesa for 2GW-worth of wind turbines, and Caparo has secured leases over land sufficient to install 3GW of capacity. All that activity means its longer-term target to install 5GW of capacity by 2017 - enough to give it real clout - is feasible.

Power will be sold through a mixture of agreements with state power companies and through direct sales to the private sector. Crucially, Caparo says it can produce power profitably without any subsidies, although some are available, including carbon credits, which could add further value.

SHARE TIP SUMMARY:
Buy
True, Caparo is likely to tap shareholders for more equity before too long, but it will become increasingly cash generative. According to estimates from broker Mirabaud Securities, Caparo's shares are rated at just seven times forecast earnings for 2012-13, based on turbines that will be in the ground by March 2012. This compares favourably with UK-listed Indian renewables power company Greenko, whose shares are rated at 10 times 2013 earnings. Caparo's rating is likely to catch up as its capacity grows. Buy.