Celadon Pharmaceuticals Share Discussion Threads

[dpeach] 10/8/2009 14:05

wywcu1 it would look that way, also interested as to why Lloyd's bought 17,000 the other day are they with the offer or buying as feel worth more? looks like mm's hope by moving up to 232p to tempt a few more out... although just seen a buy go through for 6000 shares @ 237p so could be some more to come

[wywcu1] 10/8/2009 13:51

With the bid now up at 2.32 does this mean that the MM's are expecting a better offer?

[wywcu1] 10/8/2009 10:11

dpeach et all, if you refer back to this morning's RNS you will see that CEL states "the first closing of the offer will be 1pm on 2nd Sept". My suggestion is that we sit on our hands and see what transpires between now and then. They are obviously expecting to extend the offer period and perhaps increase the offer which, we all agree, is derisory.

[dpeach] 10/8/2009 09:11

Flow, uppola think trying to increase bid to tempt sellers...
Link to schwartz article re.celsis low offer from FT

[dpeach] 09/8/2009 14:49

Yep CCGP punters certainly have a fair price... found this over the weekend

Ironic KBC telling everyone to hold on for the ride north in Biotechs and then the involvement with the Celsis situation...and Nomura in on the act also

[wywcu1] 09/8/2009 11:17

The biggest riser on Friday was CCG which went up 156% after a bid offer (unfortunately I don't hold any). Makes the offer for Celsis somewhat derisory.

[dpeach] 08/8/2009 09:20

I think we should all sit on hands at the moment and whatever shares you have hold on to them, at present we would still get 232.5 even if we hold them. I think as per DS in the FT on Friday the institutions are putting a slide rule over this one and probably aren't impressed either... 33% below research we paid for is taking the holding institutions and PIs for fools.

From the F.T on Friday, David Schwartz column:

Last Monday brought news that Celsis, one of my recent trades, was the target of a surprise takeover offer. Ordinarily, announcements of this nature are pleasing. But the Celsis offer brought little joy. The acquirer offered 232.5p per share, a disappointing premium over the previous day's closing price

I do not understand why the Celsis board accepted this weak offer. Celsis is a steady profitmaker. Company-sponsored research by Edison suggests its fair value is almost one third above the offer price. Celsis pays no dividend although it can afford to do so. I suspect that a commitment to pay a reasonable dividend could have boosted its share price to a level very close to the offer price, assuming management wished to remain independent.

Another point to consider is that the world economy is at the bottom of a downturn and an expansionary phase approaches. Market statistics suggest a bull market is underway. In this kind of environment, an independent Celsis will probably be worth more in the near future without a takeover premium.

My conclusion is that the acquisition price is too low. I wonder why a major financial institution such as Gartmore accepted such a poor offer so quickly. I contacted Gartmore but no one was available to explain its decision.

The deal is now quite advanced with 38 per cent of the shares already committed. Even so, I am hopeful that uncommitted institutional investors with clout will do the job that the Celsis board should have done and demand a higher price.

[wywcu1] 07/8/2009 18:40

This is very strange, 1,000 bought at 2.38. If a shorter was trying to close he could do it at the offer price.
Maybe (and hopefully) we are going into play. Let's all hold our nerve and reject this offer,

[wywcu1] 07/8/2009 18:40

sorry - double post.

[verger] 07/8/2009 16:19

I have 8000.

[boadicea] 07/8/2009 12:24

Yes, I assume so.

Is it just a coincidence (if I read correctly) that CEL became a mixed mm/SETS stock on the very day of the offer?
Anyway, since then (Monday) there have been no 'AT' trades but a number of SETS auctions (UT) and a couple oh 'NT's.
Is normal order book trading suspended while a company is under offer?

[ibrox] 07/8/2009 12:04

I have 1300 and have held for many years - I believe this merits a higher bid so it gets a thumbs down from me.

[dpeach] 07/8/2009 11:20

presume KBC can pick them up though? only upto 232.5p as with todays announcement?

[boadicea] 07/8/2009 09:53

Understood - thanks.

[dpeach] 07/8/2009 09:28

Boad.. to clarify was referring to mid price and mm. Believe they can't, hence second offers?

[dpeach] 07/8/2009 09:07

hmmm just had a quick look @ on line prices, bid @ 231p for max 10,000 and offering at 236p for 10,000 shares. Considering an isa punt.

[dpeach] 07/8/2009 08:55

wywcu1 try inserting - PLUS:CEL.GB - in trades screen this will show celsis trades via Plus market, today so far is 7072 sold. I hold 115,000 shares, sold some recently @ £2 (can now see that was not very clever!)

[wywcu1] 07/8/2009 08:42

dpeach - where are you seeing the sells and at what price. Nothing on ADVFN.
It would be interesting to find out how many shares are held on this thread, view most are not terribly impressed with the current offer. I hold 40k

[verger] 07/8/2009 08:38

Bid price ticking up a smidge is more encouraging than the offer price racing up. Holding tight.

[dpeach] 07/8/2009 07:44

ajk479, agreed... probably trying to 'Encourage' a few PIs to sell (as it's above the offer price) but as stated unless get 75% agreement can't de-list.

[ajk479] 07/8/2009 07:37

The bidders stated aim is to take the company private, for which they will require agreement from 75% of the shareholders.Looking at the few trades and RNS notifications since the announcement of the bid,shareholders, both large and small,are not exactly falling over themselves in a rush to sell.

A far more realistic revised bid will be needed, even without a hostile second bidder appearing, if they are to reach their 75% target. I will continue to sit on my hands.

[boadicea] 07/8/2009 07:15

The share price action certainly seems to imply at least some minor belief in the possibility of a competing offer.
This may be no more than some punters seeing it as a low risk bet (probably by sb) with a more or less guaranteed stop, i.e. the premium over the offered price is option money rather than based on any evidence of a better deal being put together.

[boadicea] 06/8/2009 20:47

wywcu1 - A similar thought entered my head.
I suppose if institutions are not happy they might find ways of encouraging a counterbid - such as choosing from whom they might accept paper as payment for their holding in a cash/paper option. Remember that although management have committed their shares unless there is a (?)10% higher offer, that doesn't actually amount to much.

[boadicea] 06/8/2009 20:38

GWtF - While I think ALM is an interesting punt (due to the concerted stake-building by Mayfair/Jo Lewis outfit) I already have a reasonable size holding so don't want to put much of any CEL proceeds into it.
How to reinvest is a perennial problem when a large holding suddenly 'matures' in a nice way, like FRX, RTD, NSB and others before it - particularly when it is in an ISA and needs to be re-invested within a reasonable time (although no-one will commit themselves to what that time is.)
I have plenty of candidates on AIM but few of those are eligible for an ISA and I hold more than enough of RCG (one of the eligible ones) and LRL (another - and rather speculative).
I am also studiously avoiding companies without a cash cushion or at least a healthy cash flow. This does narrow the field rather drastically when looking for solid unrecognised value and rules out the likes of PFD even though in a very defensive sector.

Most of the ideas I have are gleaned from others - such as rivaldo - always worth checking out his ideas.

The ones I liked the look of included -
GBG (bs still looks healthy even when all the intangibles are discounted, also plenty of cash)
VLK (one of the cheapest around and fears of recession effects probably exaggerated).

CAR (very interesting company technologically with an excellent informative thread) and
VEC (recently tipped so lately active) -
are two more but they have already made recent advances and are pretty much up with the game although both are strong holds in my book awaiting confirmation that their prospects are being realised. The strength of these two lies much with the management credentials so one cannot expect them to be excessively cheap - It's a question of paying for quality.
I also liked the look of DIA at ~120p, but before I had got around to making a decent size position it escalated to its current 165-170 level, quite high enough for the present

I have seen many other prospective wonder-stocks mentioned but there has usually been a dubious/excessive speculative element, or perhaps a cash/balance sheet weakness that meant any significant growth would require more finance.

I'll probably end up adding some GSK and/or SN. as safe ballast!

Sorry to ramble on o/t - I am looking for ideas myself so would gladly read other's similar ramblings.

Please read this as a collection of ideas to look at (in which I generally hold a position), NOT a tip-sheet.
Now, of course, if we are not confined to ISA-able stocks, that opens up a whole new book - for another day!