Let me make a quick note and we can come back and discuss this again when the results come out:
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26 Feb 2025, Karimgrant posts suggesting that Celadon is a buy when the share price is 24p.
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The finals came out on 14 May last year, let's see what the share price is when they come out this year.
JakNife |
Shorty short blaa blaa .... Yawn |
Oh gosh not you again with your short shorts |
now has sufficient working capital through to Q3 2025. |
VAST - READ MY NAME ;) |
The potential income is huge so I don't know why celadon isn't much bigger. We need to expand our crop size significantly to boost income |
At last, a more sensible spread |
Indeed but the odds of success are much better now. |
either way raft - It needs something and soon |
still think they will raise - they won't want to add in the cost of loan repayments on top of the day to day running and crop costs. Bucket shop raise is far easier and they are almost out of cash - makes a loan far harder to get |
For the deal to proceed with revenue inbound following the first invoice everything has to be in order. Even going by your income figures a bridging loan would be easily accessible. So your talk of 4p remains scaremongering. |
and most importantly....
The supply of cuttings by Celadon to Valeos under the Supply Agreement is subject to Celadon receiving a specific export licence from the Home Office, and Valeos obtaining an equivalent import licence under Danish regulations. Has this been signed off - don't recall seeing it anywhere. |
 1. The harvests grown under licence by Valeos will enable Celadon to supply product to its current European customer ahead of completing the fit out of Celadon's Phase 2, which could be worth up to c.£8m per annum, and generate a margin on the difference between the price received from its European customer and the price paid to Valeos.
2. In return for the 5 year licence and the use of its genetics Celadon will receive 50 per cent. of the increased contribution from the refitted facility, based on increased yield and/or increased pricing above an agreed minimum level. Subject to the level of sales and increase in yield generated by Valeos this could be worth up to £1.7 million per annum to Celadon, who has the annual right to choose whether this is settled in cash or equity in Valeos
...
whilst the deal may bring in £8.7m a year -not all of that goes to celadon- half of the deal looks to be only 50% to celadon. The expected uplifts and revenues are based on prices staying at £10 a gram. In fairness they could rise, however, they could also drop |
The Valeos deal will bring in £8.7M each year for the next 3 years. They can now arrange bridging finance short term based on this contract value alone. Talk of 4p is just scare mongering. |
jaknife - As advised on 20 December 2024, receipt of these funds, along with expected cash receipts from customers and continuing to work with creditors gives the Company sufficient working capital up to March 2025.
key words "up to march 2025" - this could mean 1st March and not end march. Meaning possibly only 6 weeks money left.
this bit of news whilst being good, doesn't say how much the first invoice is for.
this does appear to have all the hallmarks of a pump, followed by bookbuild fundraise soon.
I would not be surprised to see an after hours rns talking of completed bookbuild today -seen that so many times before!
I have watched this since it listed and always felt it was only worth about 4p a share, hence not bought any shares in it as yet.
Looks like my 4p could be a tad overvalued, unless they start showing the cash coming in and by that I mean actual revenue, not expected or anticipated |
No need for a fundraise but let’s see how things develop. |
Why so generous?
With 68.85m shares in issue ( 15p would value the company at £10.3m. And yet:
Balance Sheet
The last reported balance sheet was the June interims, which showed net equity of just £2.5m and negligible cash:
Post that date they claimed to raise £1.05m at 40p a share in September. Can we be sure that those funds have arrived? There is obviously something skanky about the way that CEL goes about raising funds (relative to the rest of the companies on AIM) as they make gloriously grand announcements about the fund raises but then have to admit, many many months AFTER the date of the announcement, that the funds haven't actually arrived in full!
Regardless, let's assume that the full £1.05m did arrive. But they have burnt about £2.5m of cash every six months so where does that put them now? That would imply that net assets decreased by £1.5m as at the end of Dec. Is the balance sheet just a net £1m at year-end?
Sales
CEL have put out various wild claims of big sales contracts, eg:
Inaugural Supply Contract Win
which included:
"Under the terms of the contract, Celadon will sell a minimum of £3 million worth of product over the next three years, with the first shipment expected in Q4 2023. At the end of the three years, the contract can be extended for a further two years with the mutual agreement of the parties."
And yet I refer you again to the interims that show revenues of just £63k for the first six months of 2024! Surely £3m over 3 years means £500k every six months? Did they lie in the original RNS? Or is there a problem? In which case why haven't they updated the market and explained?
conclusion
Frankly Celadon looks an awful business. The directors have published numerous RNSs that we can now objectively demonstrate with hindsight were either completely untrue or contained wildly optimistic unstated assumptions. How can we trust *ANY* RNS that they publish?
They are burning £2.5m every six months and reported on 2 January that they only had enough cash to keep them going to the end of March. Obviously they need to raise funds.
If they want to keep going for at least a year then they should raise a minimum of £5m (or else massively cut their cost base). But frankly I value this company at no more than its net assets, which I estimate is about £1m and hence if they raise at more than 1.5p then that would be excessively generous!
JakNife |
15p fundraise |
Holding up quite well. More to come tomorrow I suspect. |
No a bad morning so far.think 150p for next week is a little optimistic, so let's get to the 100 p barrier first |
So they need to raise money again. Pump it up first, sucker in a few mugs. And then place at a 50% discount! AIM text book bag of 💩! |
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