Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[cheol9812] 30/4/2018 08:57

Study the dangers of well operation.

[xclusive2] 30/4/2018 08:07

K et al, Agreed, there is a huge opportunity but I sense that the next RNS will be a poor one.MJF is producing but I'm concerned re the last statement on 142 and 146 and I'd have thought if it was good news, we'd have it by now. Issuing news piecemeal v going Big Bang to create some share price momentum ?My shout -;801 still going or experienced pressure issuesA5 - Can't clear obstruction and P&A with A8 replacing MJF - Reduced flow ratesWe may not get news this week as probably will be included in the financials but regardless, I'm hoping I'm wrong re the content !!

[roy1982] 29/4/2018 19:03

we may get a glowing report this week but the problem is after Decembers glowing reports who would belief it.

[konil] 28/4/2018 14:02

3.
risk v reward

the rewards are easy to see, casp is self-funded, have good assets which could turn out to be world class assets, are making progress albeit slowly, have remained external debt free so far and have shrewd well connected owners inside and now outside the company intent on its success.

the risk is also easy to see, the pi may not benefit. the 19% not owned by oraz/satyl/concert/daehan, has hopefully dwindled in recent months and continues to do so, as they buy up stock from impatient pi sellers, down to the level where they are happy to treat the remaining shares equitably with their own.

[konil] 28/4/2018 14:02

2.
what's really happening?
only the company management know what's going on and they aint saying nuffink. ok, so that leaves me space to conjecture as i wish...

- current ops continue slowly, as cashflow allows, beset with problems but moving forward bit by bit. given the size and life changing nature of the potential prize i doubt oraz or satyl will be satisfied with the current rate of progress going forward. they have cleverly navigated the company to this point with no external masters (creditors) so they could march to their own tune but i sense they now want to step it up and reap the rewards.

- meanwhile other things bubble away in the background such as 3abest deal. do they also have other related assets which could form part of the game plan?

- why did satyl leave? he has a lot to gain from casp success. imo it was decided he could do better for casp (with his influence in other kaz circles, political and financial) if he was off the board and seen to have some distance from the company. perhaps also the need for distance in relation to the upcoming 3abest deal?
i doubt very much he is less involved with casp's future.

- deeps / fundraising / 3abest
no one more than oraz and satyl are aware of the vital need for deep success (preferably more than 1) to boost company valuation, prior to any fundraising in order to minimise dilution. i assume they will want external funding to speed up casp ops but only if the cost is palatable.
but, but, but, there is now the issue of managing company valuations to achieve the best result for themselves while casp subsumes their 3abest assets. nothing wrong with that assuming they dont wipe out the pi in the process!

[konil] 28/4/2018 14:01

during the hiatus, three instalments in an occasional series by a seriously confused bipolar casp investor

1.
cashflow
company claimed a forward looking 4000bopd with 600bopd from well 146 but never achieved that because 146 has problems and has not flowed, so that puts production at 3400bopd at best.

but well 142 also has problems now and has ceased flowing, and we are told production from other wells goes up and down as various intervals are tested, shut in etc. so i would guess 2500bopd is a reasonable estimate for on-going production.

2500bopd at local prices ($20net) is $18m p.a.

they managed g&a costs well, and had got it down to c.$3m (2016), so assuming its still running at that level, they have $15m p.a. to spend on ops.

from about july assuming the export licence kicks in and 80% is sold export, gross $70 will translate to net $40 per barrel plus the 20% still being sold locally at net $20 is $32m p.a.

that will give them $29m p.a. to spend on ops.

company states an infrastucture (pipeline, treatment works, storage) requirement of $40m across 2018 and 2019.

at export prices, 1 deep at say 2500bopd (the company figure of 3500bopd seems optimistic given experience with their numbers to date) will provide an additional $32m p.a. - let's say that happens mid-2018, then the $48m it would bring in across 2018/2019 would take care of the infrastructure expenditure.

on available information it appears cashflow will allow the company to keep going at a slow but steady pace and assuming 1 deep success, will enable infrastucture to be built which will maximise revenues when further production comes on stream.

[hallow] 28/4/2018 11:35

Clive you need to tell us what is going on with CASP.

A whole month with no operational update from you is ridiculous.

There is one day left in April on Monday, how about some information from you on Monday or at the very least next week.


Yours

very disgruntled shareholder



from the header
No News Available in the last month for CASP

[xclusive2] 27/4/2018 19:31

At least HUR & SXX have broken to 30 &40p barriers with plenty more to come. Hoping that our Casper doesn't break the 10p, i suspect it will.

[xclusive2] 27/4/2018 12:57

Maxim,Much that most investors here are in for the deeps, it's now vitally important that the MJF discovery is Ronseal. If MJF is having to be encouraged to flow as opposed to flowing with adequate pressure, having to do workovers etc, then the base line will drop as the P2 will change. Having a successful MJF providing valuable revenue and cash flow is critical for Casper's deep progress, without it there'll be dilution, something we all want to avoid !!News next week but I don't sense a Carlsberg and hoping I'm totally wrong.

[maxim1999] 27/4/2018 11:19

Agree no way there is a deal coming. I think we just sit and wait. We know the oil is there, so does the co and the rest of the oil industry. We know there are problems or they would have rushed to announce good news. Long term we are in a strong position. We have the shallows under pinning the value round here and more of those are due to come on line . We have the strong possibility that as some time in the future a deep will flow. On balance more patience required. I would describe this is a hold / buy at 10p. And if the next update sees the shares lower or indeed higher in both cases its a Strong Buy. Keep the faith the oil is there !!

[togglebrush] 27/4/2018 11:15

FWIW ___ Companies Annual RESULTS ZONE for those posted in this decade
‘
Caspian Sunrise plc -Final Results__________15 May 2017 07:00__recent
Roxi Petroleum Plc - Final Results__________03 Jun 2016 07:00
Roxi Petroleum Plc - Final Results__________23 Jun 2015 07:00__latest
Roxi Petroleum Plc - Final Results__________06 Jun 2014 07:00
Roxi Petroleum Plc - Final Results__________30 Apr 2013 07:00__earliest
Roxi Petroleum Plc - Preliminary Results____08 May 2012 07:00
Roxi Petroleum Plc - Preliminary Results____20 May 2011 07:00
Roxi Petroleum Plc - Final Results__________24 May 2010 07:00

[xclusive2] 26/4/2018 22:15

A sale ? no way, not until a couple of deeps proved up and they get some success at Dungas. I'm amazed that the share price is holding up but next news will see it go dramatically one way or t'other.

[maxim1999] 26/4/2018 17:02

https://youtu.be/_6IZgYYaCcAUnclear if this is the same company ?

[konil] 26/4/2018 15:20

imo unlikely to be a sale, bwdik. for oraz and satyl to get best value for their casp assets they would need to prove up at least 1 deep first.

what the difference to them? let's guess;
- sale price now, at say 50% premium to current sp, c.$350m = 15p
- sale price after a deep proved (opening up potential of remaining deep assets) and production up and reserves probably quadrupled from todays p1 18m and p2 29m, say c.$1400m = 60p

oraz family holding 746m shares, sell now £112, sell later £448m
satyl holding 176m shares, sell now £26m, sell later £105m

if bng is as big as casp have been saying for years now, i cannot see oraz or satyl being contented with the smaller amounts, unless
- they know its not as good as they say
- they are fed up and want out

[bullinachinashop3] 26/4/2018 14:23

this weird trading is doing my head in, perhaps you are right hallow! something heavy going down.

[hallow] 26/4/2018 13:53

I wonder if the reason why Clive hasn't updated us since 19/03/2018 is because he is trying to flog Caspian Sunrise to a major oil company such as Chevron or any other company with interests in Kazakhstan.

It would confirm why Gaffney Cline are now trying to prove the size of the oilfield for due diligence purposes so that both sides know the exact amounts being discussed.

[bullinachinashop3] 26/4/2018 09:32

as ever strange goings on. Whats with the weird pinging in the SP, just wedged in this channel. I am amazed there is no leakage either way..

[xclusive2] 26/4/2018 08:25

Off topic - us HUR about to go on a run on anticipation of likely takeover ??

[hallow] 26/4/2018 08:22

Agreed this prolonged silence is not looking good at all, now well over a month. At first I thought it was because they were gearing up to make a big announcement but now it doesn't feel like that way at all.

What happened to the Gaffney Cline report.

[xclusive2] 26/4/2018 07:46

That's a good point K. I can't see any info from the Pro Investor website or any other website to show they presented ? Loads of bluster in Q4 followed by radio silence. This isn't looking good from where I'm sitting and I've still got concerns re FD's exit. Carverspeak update coming I fear !

[hallow] 26/4/2018 07:16

1 year and 4 weeks (1 year and 1 month) after Clive's epic statement,


we're sitting on something pretty special, we're still none the wiser.


How time flies !

[konil] 25/4/2018 18:53

anyone know if cc actually did the presentation on 1st feb at oil capital? or was it a no-show?

[hallow] 25/4/2018 18:20

Well it doesn't look like news in the morning.

What's going on Clive ?

No news from you since 19/03/18

[konil] 25/4/2018 18:13

smarty, lol!

[xclusive2] 25/4/2018 17:29

Konil,Get back to that bunker and make sure you've got the tin hat. Nothing wrong with a spoonful of paranoia, the way these guys are going, you'll need another bottle !!