Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[konil] 08/5/2018 16:09

perhaps its fortunately not! casp may surprise us all. i hope so, cos i haven't sold any and will be very badly hit on a negative outcome.

i intend to stick it out to the end, purely on the basis of operational outcomes so far.

that may seem a strange comment given the slow progress and the ongoing problems with deeps - but imo the slow progress is nature of the oil game and where it is specific to casp due to internally funded growth rather than faster growth at expense of dilution then i'm happier with the approach to date. not many tiddlers out there with the luxury of sufficient cashflow to grow organically, would be a shame to waste that with dilution too soon in the process.

and as long as the shallows keep delivering (the latest on 146 and 142 a bit worrying!) with many more cheap wells to come on line, straight into export, then it could be very significant even without deeps.

as regards the deeps, that is immensely frustrating but i hope at least 1 of the 3 will come through. but the real draw for me is the fact they hit 3 out of 3, that must say something about the potential at bng and even if all 3 current deeps fail either due to geology or mismanagement, we know the oil is there...3 x 100m columns as a minimum...so hoping for big things in time to come.

as you can see i've swapped the rose tints for my special issue 'near-delusional' tints...normally reserved for when things look so bad that even the rose tints wont do...don't let me down casp....

[xclusive2] 08/5/2018 14:02

And I do plan to hold them even if next news is poor. That's the decision I need to make re buying more purely as a trade on the drop and will probably sell rest if I can't see light at the end of the tunnel. It's not PI's that are going to affect share price and if big holders stay in then the price will probably only recede slightly on poor news. This is a big boys game.

[xclusive2] 08/5/2018 13:42

Unfortunately not, just under 50% left !

[konil] 08/5/2018 13:01

smarty, "I've now changed that view by moving majority of cash to other investments"

i guess that means you have sold the majority of your casp holdings?

[konil] 08/5/2018 12:20

toggle, interesting points.

notwithstanding the different experiences and outlook of holders in kaz and uk (which i agree with), i am confused about your use of 'kazak investors'. indulge me while i explain.

company info says;

1. oraz family 44.70%
2. dae han 13.50%
3. satyl 10.50%
4. other concert party members 12.30%
5. other shareholders 19.00%

oraz, satyl and concert party i see as a homogenous group in that for practical purposes they will work as one i.e. they will manage outcomes for the benefit of all in that group. between them they hold 67.5%.
i am assuming that mrs. b and those who made loans in exchange for shares etc., are part of the concert party.

dae han i don't know about but they have 13.5%

that leaves 19% for 'other shareholders', peeps like me, who may be located anywhere in the world and have various nationalities, including uk and kazak.

if the company is managed so that different categories of holders benefit differently (for example if company is taken private or other assets are subsumed on an inequitable basis and so on) then i can see very different outcomes for kazak holders depending on whether they happen to be in the concert party or in the 'other' group.

in that regard kazak nationality will provide no protection for them if they happen to be in the 'other' group.

when you say 'kazak investors', are you referring to those kazak holders in the concert party, or to those in the 'other shareholders' group, or to both?

or do you have a completely different take on this?

[xclusive2] 08/5/2018 12:13

Cfc,

Yep, i came to that conclusion but still holding a chunk until the next episode of Carverspeak.

Toggle,

There are AIM disasters in Kstan eg Tethys and Max Petroleum, maybe not Kazakh owned but not good for any investor, Kazakh or other.

Patience ! I know oour KO got involved in 2012 but our CC has been involved since inception and 11 years of Carverspeak takes a little more than patience. Much that i say that,i'm holding a chunk to see if my patience is rewarded and the reason i sold was that i could buy back @ a far cheaper price if news is poor, at a higher price if news is good but having the knowledge that my investment is underpinned by real fundamental value. I've now changed that view by moving majority of cash to other investments but i will consider buying more if the news is concrete and doesn't come with the usual, if, maybe, could be, likely to be etc !

Et al,

History shows us that the lack of timely news is often bad news for the Pox as if it was good they'd be telling us unless there's another agenda. In my opinion, A5 is still blocked, 801 experiencing issues with heat and pressure and MJF not as good as made out. Also 808 disappeared off radar so that's obviously not another MJF as hoped.

Hope i'm wrong guys and gals and our Clive is going to announce that Ronseal RNS.

Smarty

[togglebrush] 08/5/2018 10:41

Konil,
'
Kazak investors have possibly done very well out of Caspar; Mrs BZ made a small fortune out of trading the spikes in London; those who made loans pre devaluation and accepted a shares for loan deal, are just two examples. They live in a country where the troubles with local oil fields are well known and have eventually produced great fortunes for them. Kazaks have NOT suffered with previous AIM disasters experienced by London's AIM investors. The majority of shareholders appear steadfast and may ??? be on the local gossip circuit whereas London isn't.
'
An old adage is that rewards come to the patient (biblical virgins and lamps etc) ... may be may not...we will soon see ???

[konil] 08/5/2018 10:20

captain, very understandable given the dire lack of newsflow here.


et al,

i think captain's actions may represent similar action being taken by a number of pi holders, and possibly lends some support to the theory that pi's are exiting and the released stock is being accumulated in larger buckets.

imo, given the delayed newsflow, there is probably a lot of corporate action going on in the background, and op news is either negligible (due to low cashflow and slow progress) or purposely being delayed.

either way, it provides the time and opportunity for a stock hoovering exercise (i think toggle disagrees about this).

publication of the ar may come soon or be delayed;
- soon if they want to publish ar before things in the background are finalised, so they don't have to address it in the ar's post-period section.
- delayed if they want time to finalise re-org and then clear the slate by letting it all hang out in the ar!


having suffered with previous aim disasters, the news hiatus here gives me the spooks. my hope is that the management are actually working towards growing the company rather than planning to shut up shop or nefariously acquire the 19% held by outsiders.

[captainfatcat] 08/5/2018 08:45

closed the last of my positions in order to add to some others that are doing well. I have been feeling very uneasy about the lack of news.

Going to keep following here and still think there will be some good opportunities to get back in on the way up if they get the deeps to flow.

Best of luck guys

[xclusive2] 08/5/2018 08:02

I really did expect news today. 7 weeks elapsed since last update and no news on any front does not bode well. Patience has always been needed with the Pox, just hoping that they're not going to emulate our MXP !!

[buzzzzzzzz] 08/5/2018 07:27

Probably suspended working operations because it's toooooooo hot!

[maxim1999] 07/5/2018 19:26

I think no substantial news in the figures. Just more delay and jam tomorrow. I guess we will be here at 10 p in 3 months. I hope I am wrong ofcourse .

[xclusive2] 07/5/2018 10:30

Providing MJF continues to produce at levels forecasted and the discovery is as per the first GC report, then there is little downside if any to Casper. They could continue to fund deeps from cash flow but returns to investors would be minimal until that deep lands. Probably find that BNG ain't so special and 3ABest comes up trumps !!News this week pre financials.

[hallow] 06/5/2018 12:04

News from you this week Clive ?,

Would be nice compensation for the years of misery I have endured here.



No news since the 19th March today is 7th May.

[maxim1999] 04/5/2018 15:02

I am guessing A5 is slow still and 801 is the next news. But just guessing. Figures this week?

[xclusive2] 04/5/2018 14:29

Fingers x'd. I'm amazed that share price has held up, maybe that's a good thing but I couldn't believe the last news following the run up to 13p.

[konil] 04/5/2018 10:45

smarty, yes, very uncomfortable this extended wait for news. the financials may not deliver the news either, last year this from the ar (page 16)...

"Events after the reporting period
Other than as disclosed in this annual report, including notes to the financial statements, there have been no material events between 31 December 2016 and the date of this report, which are required to be brought to the attention of shareholders."

let's hope its different this time - but in a good way!

[xclusive2] 04/5/2018 08:35

If they wanted to dump poor news, 16.29 today would be a good time as BH weekend may soften the blow.K,I've moved my Casper sales cash into HUR and SXX. Still got a lot invested here but each day that passes is not a good sign and we're going to get news with the financials. This may work out ok but my patience has gone with them and the likely winners will be those recently entering the game. Hoping that one deep lands but I suspect they're waiting for 801 as the news on A5 will be poor unfortunately.Am I miles off ? Let's hope so (-:

[togglebrush] 04/5/2018 05:21

Konil ... I think the London stock exchange has proved a blessing to the Kazak investors as we discussed last Autumn when capital gains on Tenge loans featured. Loans in Tenge following devaluation latter being repaid as double bubble.
'
Oil is sold in dollars and the cable rate is reasonably stable whilst the FX on the Tenge has been wild.
'
Big boy investors are very much in the frame for share dealing. For example by my count this week, so far, smaller sized deals have accounted for only a third of total traded volume.
'
Deal size____Volume_____Volume %
'
0k-30k_______465,185_____9.4%_____under normal market size
30-100k____1,191,748____24.2%
100-300k___1,550,873____31.5%
300-500k_____717,150____14.6%
500k->_____1,000,000____20.3%
;
In this short period 39-100k is only band that there are notably more sales than buys
Bigger deals being twice size of smaller deals means that probably big boys are not feeding off smaller deals.
Several rollovers etc are still happening and mainly in the bigger deal area.

[konil] 03/5/2018 16:52

toggle, oraz will have some lieutenants to assist him, not least satyl, who imo is still very much involved with casp. and there may be some in the concert party who are more than just passive holders.

i do think they are distracted somewhat by 3abest merger and possibly other acquisition.

as regards the $40m infrastructure spend, they can meet that from cashflow over 18 months at export prices, even assuming 2500bopd. if they start getting more shallows online according to their plan then mjf alone could deliver $96m p.a. in a couple of years.

toggle, do you think there could be a hoovering operation in progress to pick up as much as possible of that "small legacy shareholder tranche" ?

[togglebrush] 03/5/2018 16:21

CEO is operating almost as a one man band in largest country in world without an ocean coast line

Almaty is companies only company office. Probable base from where he has raised new capital, negotiated loans and deals from Kazakh investors over many years.

London is share market centre some 3,500 miles away. But only home to small legacy shareholder tranche and 5 hours time zone away.

MJF is operation centre some 1,500 miles from Almaty with some 90 staff. This is production and development centre in a desolate salt water marsh Where projects as described in Presentation 01 February 2018 are required.
'
Oil transportation options

By truck ...By pipeline ... By railway
We will need:.. Pipeline ... Treatment works ...Storage
Estimated spend for 2018/19 $40m
'
Acquisition Targets
'
Target 2 ... Close to BNG with under Utilised storage and treatment facilities and with pipeline access to national grid network
‘
Then there is the 3Abest merger
31 Jan 2018 3ABest announce its intention to acquire 100% of the shares price is $24 million would be satisfied by the issue of approximately 148 million new Shares at the price of 12p
‘
Plus the 2017 results due shortly to agree with part time joint Chairman and NEW CFO who has many other jobs in hand.
‘
These just add to day to day drilling and testing to oversee. A busy schedule with vast distances and many time zones with not the best communication channels

[maxim1999] 03/5/2018 16:12

I bet nothing has reported because there is nothing to report. No operational progress and the share price is too low for another corporate deal.

[konil] 03/5/2018 15:40

if there is good news in the pipeline, but not yet ready to rns, i cant see why 'they' (who? maybe concert party chums?) would not try to hoover up as much of the loose 19% stock as possible. whose to stop them? casp might be london registered but (a) its on aim (b) its in kaz (c) its small and under most radars (d) management are out of uk reach.

the hiatus may be on the surface with frantic paddling out of sight, getting corporate/asset ducks lined up, meantime as above.

i've alluded to this before.

[xclusive2] 03/5/2018 12:56

Trading as peculiar as ever and feel that stock being shuffled around. I really thought we'd see a share disclosure but maybe all will be revealed with a Blockbuster RNS, pigs might fly !!

[hallow] 03/5/2018 08:02

1 year and 5 weeks after Clive's epic statement,


we're sitting on something pretty special, we still haven't been told anything.


How time flies !