Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[hallow] 10/5/2018 15:59

1 year and 5 weeks after Clive's epic statement,


we're sitting on something pretty special, we still haven't been told anything.


How time flies !

[pvi1] 10/5/2018 15:41

It amazes me that this hasn't gone back to 4p on 5 years of the same rns delays

[konil] 09/5/2018 16:27

thanks toggle, appreciate your thoughts.

[xclusive2] 09/5/2018 16:24

Control,Thanks for the pointer on HUR, momentum building and will continue I believe. Hope you've got a few SXX as that will do the same.Re our Casper, the Emperor must be due another Beauty Parade so let's hope he remembers his clothes, doesn't bear thinking about (-:)

[togglebrush] 09/5/2018 15:27

Konil you push me to pontificate re your post 4214

Almaty is the largest city in Kazakhstan, with a population of 1,797,431 people, about 8% of the country's total population. It is the companies only office and countries only trading stock exchange. In 1997, the government relocated the capital to Astana in the north of the country, which is about 12 hours away by train. It is a brand new futurist city paid for by the oil boom but whose stock exchange is not yet trading shares.
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Almaty dates back beyond 1,000 BC when it became one of the trade, craft and agricultural centres on the historic Silk Road. Therefore trading is well established within the DNA of the Kazaks, but foreign share trading will probably have to be done through a limited number of agents brokers etc.
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Therefore most of the concert party and others will be known to each other. But as in all bazaars the competition will be intense between them and many have become extremely wealthy outside the oil business. In business reputation is everything
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Their business reputation and the fact that they are a new independent nation, where many have held government office, leads me to believe that these proud people will be keen to project their business and national reputations.
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In the early days of the Wild East there were many interesting stories doing the rounds. But like the Wild West they are now part of the folklore of the country. A wish to project their business reputation and new independent nation, where many have held government office, and grow both in a good light.
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Competitive, internally and externally, but all ways with a reputation for fair dealing because that has always been the way to build reputations and business.

[konil] 09/5/2018 11:27

toggle, may i ask for your thoughts on post 4214?

[maxim1999] 09/5/2018 10:36

Thanks x2 .

[xclusive2] 09/5/2018 10:19

K,You do have other choices but yep, I accept that there is risk with any investment. I believe SXX will get to the £1 and glad I put some more cash there and HUR the same as I see an exit looming within a year. Casper could well deliver but like anything, too much of a bad thing finally gets to you and that's my position. Still got more than most PI's but I see no reason to add in the short term or at least until I see the true financial position which will be 4 months out of date and that position would have worsened as production declines.Good that pressure remains high and let's hope they can pull off 2 x deeps in June before the 90 day flow test and the inevitability of more problems There is a Groundhog Day cycle here if you hadn't noticed (-:Maxim,A5 success - 20p +801 - 35p as the hype kicks inTime to deliver on the Q4 BS, sorry I meant PR.

[konil] 09/5/2018 09:59

smarty, you could be right but i have no choice. certainly don't like it so have to lump it.

not considering any exit. every opportunity on the markets has risk, here its execution risk, but at least we know there is oil and mjf could be a company maker in a year or two albeit not a deep.

what the continuing (dire) commentary tells me is that unless there is some massive hidden conspiracy, casp are just facing the 'normal' problems of the industry. (3abest impact on the pi an unknown.)

as discussed before its a rare tiddler that has sufficient cashflow to grow organically at this stage, so it would be a pity to waste that opportunity by raising cash too soon in the process at the expense of huge dilution. downside is slow progress of course. however, in that regard i hope the management don't do a volte-face. if a deep is successful the rewards will be all the greater.

it may all sound rosy but i assure you i am extremely uneasy about the ongoing delays at the deeps. a small comfort is the thought that mjf could save the day, and should all 3 deeps fail, mjf could provide funds to pursue re-work and/or other deeps. (mjf best case $96m p.a. by 2019 but $40m would be a handy chunk of change for op expenditure.)

[bullinachinashop3] 09/5/2018 09:33

meanwhile , Brent is at 76.93

[maxim1999] 09/5/2018 09:27

As predicted. All on track but very slow. Question. If one deep flows where do we think the share price goes? If 2 so where does it go? I guess A5 is 18 p. But what about both? Any thoughts ?

[thetoonarmy2] 09/5/2018 09:24

This lot couldnt get a shag in a brothel.

[captainfatcat] 09/5/2018 09:19

This company is so frustrating its hard to believe they have been trying to remove drilling fluids and flow test A5 now for four years now. The first flow test in 2014 was abandoned after the coiled tubing became stuck and they had to side track the well. I hope its not history repeating itself.

[xclusive2] 09/5/2018 09:07

My 4229 post is nonsense as I read $56m as opposed to $6m, must've had the rose tinted glasses on early doors. Didn't know there was a $6m charge. Looking forward to seeing financial results and I believe they'll show the true picture re revenue and certainly not making profit. Last 4 months management accounts would also make good reading.They are running on fumes and on a go slow until production licence awarded.

[xclusive2] 09/5/2018 08:58

Bottom feeders believe it's worth hanging around for another couple of months to see A5 and 801 conclusions. Unfortunately this mob set expectation after expectation and fail to hit deadlines but more importantly fail to deliver a commercial result.K,You are becoming too tolerant of failure sir and too accepting of Mr Excuse's continued commentary. Much that you didn't believe the PR in Q4, they have failed to deliver again and there's always an excuse. Not saying that they won't get there but their track record to complete a deep says it all. Another 6-8 weeks of waiting for the sidetrack result followed by the 'Eureka' announcement, then problems, then excuses and on we go.Very predictable, very boring and most importantly, very unprofitable !!

[konil] 09/5/2018 08:23

smarty, since they announced the problems at 142 and 146 i wasn't expecting 4000bopd, i was hoping for 2500 but we now know its 1900. ops will be even more constrained at this level of cashflow (c.$1.1m/month).

i hope the export licence wont be delayed, it cant come soon enough! and saving $6m on fees is no small deal when that accounts for 6 months of cashflow!

overall the ship seems to be on the same course but we haven't heard about 3abest...perhaps fair enough, it was an ops update.

[xclusive2] 09/5/2018 07:58

Ha, ha Spangle.Apologies, saving 56m as a bonus payment over 29 years so I suppose $2m a year is worth having, that was the good news. Not dead yet, just sleeping zzzzzzzzxzzzzz.

[hiddendepths] 09/5/2018 07:57

That's not news though spangle. We were told that months ago.

[spangle93] 09/5/2018 07:54

Shouldn't it be Mister Deadline-Again ;-)

[xclusive2] 09/5/2018 07:54

My kids used to like Mister Men when they were younger, I'm now adding a new character Mr Excuse ! HD- may not be bad news on the deeps but I think you should have a quick read back on the initial A5 discovery ! Excuse after excuse, the only difference is, we haven't dropped anything down the well yet, that's the next thing to happen as per the previous encounter.Et alThere is bad news ie MJF is not at the 4000 bopd expected it's at 50% and water ingress concerns me re the whole structure viability.Nothing about 3ABest and what's happened to A8. They must be on a go slow, running on fumes until they can benefit from higher prices.Much that all the deeps are allegedly alive, there's only so many excuses you can stomach.Yawn, tick, tock.Smarty

[spangle93] 09/5/2018 07:49

Application for full production licence is very encouraging; local buyers can have you over a barrel, though probably not literally

[timberwolf3] 09/5/2018 07:28

As ever, extremely frustrating RNS.

[hiddendepths] 09/5/2018 07:20

Well, it's not bad news.I mean, it's not good news either but it's the most optimistic release for a while and we are promised something by the end of this quarter.

Happy enough with that for now!

[togglebrush] 09/5/2018 07:10

Better late than never ... Operation Update
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Synopsis
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Deep Well A5 … works … Pressure in the well remains high at 300 bar .., if works successful, could be be ready to be put back on a new 90-day test.
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Deep Well 801 … works .. As with well A5 the pressure in Well 801 remain high
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Deep Well A6 … awaiting pipes from above
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MJF … aggregate production from wells 141, 143, 144 & 145 has over the past three months averaged 1,900 bopd.
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wells 142 and 146 has water ... engage a leading international contractor to isolate… might each produce at the rate of some 200 bopd.
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Soviet Era wells … well 54 was successfully re- completed. Possible some 90 bopd. In addition wells 805, 806 & 807 combined production rate of 110 bopd .
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Move to full production licence from 1 July 2018 to apply to move individual structures to a full production licence … expect to double the price achieved per barrel … MJF structure will be the first... Recent changes to Kazakh regulations abolished the bonus payment to the state …likely to save some $6 million.
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Comment …"Progress in Q1 2018 was slow, partly through weather and equipment failures. Encouragingly progress in Q2 has picked up expectations of Deep Wells A5 and 801 being cleared to allow 90-day flow tests in Q2.

[spangle93] 08/5/2018 23:48

Well, at least Clive won't be destitute, having taken £104k out of Ascent for his part time non-exec role in 2017, which somehow includes a £30k bonus despite the company taking each month as it comes.