Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[bullinachinashop3] 27/2/2018 10:15

not really, nothing happening at all is there! only so many scenarios we can brainstorm, we are all waiting for A5. also, A6, and 801, and A8? what happened to that?

[hallow] 27/2/2018 10:12

Not a share traded by 10.12am.

Very strange.

[spangle93] 27/2/2018 08:53

Thanks for getting back. Ref Tengiz, no I wasn't suggesting they were linked, it's clear that they aren't. But the implication from their references to the basin is that any pre-salt field discoveries at depth are large.

Gee, I'd forgotten about the eye in the sky. Whatever happened to that?

No frozen lakes. But certainly in other parts of Kaz, the ground freezes in winter, so the dirt roads are like concrete = all good. Likewise in the summer, while they'll never be motorways, transportation is pretty efficient. The period in March-April when the weather warms and the permafrost melts makes the dirt roads well dodgy (technical term) and reduces the number of tanker-loads per week. Maybe they don't have permafrost conditions close to the Caspian (which freezes over); however, a pipeline would certainly be worth the capital if oil rates were anything like those predicted. [Aye, right]

[xclusive2] 27/2/2018 08:37

Spangle,Can't disagree with your comments. Re oil transportation, it will be the responsibility of traders who are forward selling it. As you know the terrain and weather doesn't help but if you've ever watched 'ice lorries' you'll know what truckers have to deal with and as far as I'm aware, Casper don't have to transport over frozen lakes that are at risk of thawing.Re the oil find linked to Tengiz etc ? I've never thought that, it's likely to be an independent find. Remember when Bob and GRH invested time and money in satellite imaging technology to be used in association with seismic. They used to say that Galaz and BNG just had pockets of oil rather than big reservoirs. I don't know how they came to that conclusion as I believe one can only analyse the terrain, oil seepage and rock type. The fact that 801 is not connected means that it isn't one reservoir. Answers will come from appraisal wells but no good drilling those if they can't get one to flow commercially.Still wearing the RTS's until I see the A5 outcome and hoping it's not another episode of 'Carverspeak' .

[xclusive2] 26/2/2018 19:33

Don't let the bustards get you down Spangle.....lol.

[spangle93] 26/2/2018 18:43

Well Smarty, I know you are jolly optimistic, but you also were when you were much younger.... ;-)

I can't find any photos, or description in annual reports, about how oil is currently separated and exported, except the statement on lorries. If you are tankering it, it implies (1) that you'll have seasonality problems when lorries get stuck on dirt roads in thaw or rains and (2) you rely on 3rd parties to get your oil to market (or the third party buying your oil supplies their own transport), either way you have the risk of a bottleneck beyond your control.

If you can tie your site separation facilities to storage facilities at a railhead via a new pipeline, yes, it requires capex, but it takes so much uncertainty and dependency out of production.

It's amusing that 10 years on, they still use the same line about being in the same basin as Karachaganak, Tengiz and Kashagan. It's like saying we've found a house in Windsor. Windsor is near London, which is very big. So we think when we've had time to walk round Windsor, we'll find it's very big too. If it's so related, with the same source rocks, why hasn't H2S been found in Airshagyl fluids. or maybe it's just not flowed long enough to sample it :-/

[xclusive2] 26/2/2018 17:17

TB, you may have a point re tanker transport and 13 needed a day or 17 if you take into account CC's communication ! They are obviously in a catch 22 position if the tanker availability is poor but that is something that they need to invest in, maybe buy a company ! Instead they're acquiring other assets whereas they need to spend all their time generating revenue to inves back into infrastructure.Much that I hope they are producing c 6k bond with A5, I doubt it as I sense more issues coming our way, hoping I'm miles off base .

[togglebrush] 26/2/2018 15:55

IMHO
TIME of a company going from survival to profit is always a dangerous time with over confidence and egos coming into play.
'
I contend that lack of infrastructure means that oil wells are producing more oil than the infrastructure can handle currently. The proposed “sweet heart deal” may be encouraged by signs of profit in last half year but will fail because of the need to handle the budget and oil which has shown itself as ready to flow
‘
Below are BACK of a Beer Mat Numbers trying to work out how to get the $40 million needed for Infrastructure could be earned.
‘
ROUGH numbers for six months
First 2 columns from Interims published in Sept 17
Column 3 has revenue at $17 per brl and 2,500 bopd with cost of sales adjusted
Column 4 has revenue at $17 per brl 4,500 on shallows and 3 months A5 added
Column 5 has revenue at $35 net for 4,500 on shallows and 6 months A5 plus added
‘
Not an optimist forecast … but possible to show $40 million needed for infrastructure is possible from Gross on a tight budget
‘

_______________________30Jun16___30Jun17____31Dec17____Jun18__Dec18
_______________________Unaudited___Unaudited__GUESS____GUESS_GUESS
_______________________US$000s_____US$000s____US$000_plus A5_IPrices
‘
Revenue___________________896_____2,761______7,735____17,800__52,000
Cost of sales____________(907)___(2,760)____(3,000)__(10,000)(17,500)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Gross Profit/(Loss)_______(11)________1______4,735_____7,800__34,500
Share-based payments_____(277)_____(313)______(277)_____(300)___(300)
Administrative expenses_(1,099)___(1,105)___(1,100)___(1,200)_(1,200)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Operating ______________(1,387___(1,417_______3,358____6,500__33,000
Finance cost_____________(405)_____(169)______ ???
Finance income___________(110)______118_______ ???
===================================================
Profit Loss before tax__(1,682)__(1,468)______3,358
'
See also Posts #3562 and #3569

DYOR

[maxim1999] 26/2/2018 15:33

Shame that's not feeding thru to the share price .

[togglebrush] 26/2/2018 12:42

Maxim ... current problem is that they have more oil coming out of the ground than they can handle. IMHO

[maxim1999] 26/2/2018 11:52

Thats interesting but only comes in to play if they have oil coming out of the ground. Who needs a storage facility when there is nothing to put in it ?

[togglebrush] 26/2/2018 11:38

An obsession with drilling for oil needs to add some understanding of getting the oil to market. There are extracts in RNS Results and presentations over the years
'
Final Results Caspian Sunrise plc 15 May 2017
'
BNG is located close to existing oil separation facilities and close to the CPC export pipeline, which provides a relatively low cost option to export our oil when the licence terms permit and is expected to significantly reduce the funding required to bring BNG into full field production. This together with low lifting costs are expected to place BNG in the bottom quartile as a low cost producer.
'
extracts from Presentation 01 February 2018
‘
Oil transportation options
▪  By truck ▪  By pipeline ▪  By railway ’
‘
We will need: ▪  Pipeline ▪  Treatment works ▪  Storage ‘
'
Estimated spend for 2018/19 $40m
'
Acquisition Targets
▪  Target 2 ➢  Close to BNG with under Utilised storage and treatment facilities and with pipeline access to national grid network

[maxim1999] 26/2/2018 11:33

A technical question. Could the reduction in flow from 3800 bopd to 1000 bopd be caused not by drilling fluid but damage to the reservoir that was caused in whole drilling process ? In other words clearing the drilling fluid does not help because that is not the real issue ? We then get the story there is oil but to get A5 flowing will cost too much in time and effort and then it is a question of moving on to A6 and 801 is easier and less costly.

[xclusive2] 26/2/2018 11:08

DB,

If we're to believe them, A5 flowed for 15 days @ 3800bopd and pressure decline to 1000 bopd with 4mm choke for whatever reason. The fact that it flowed for a sustained period is great news, they believe it's a build up of drilling fluid and and they communicated that they expected to resume testing by end of 2017, 2 weeks from the 14/12 announcement. As we know, their timelines are to be taken with a pinch of salt but if they don't communicate this week or next week latest then they've obviously got issues, again !

They've also taken cores on A6 and 801 to prove the oil is there, 801 flowed oil before probs but the key task is A5 and they need to continue with it. The oil is there allegedly, their riches and rewards will come from a successful result.

Also should be updating on the other wells with their frenetic operational schedule (-:. A8 spud was meant to be Q4 and looking forward to them delivering that 'Ronseal' communication shortly !

[davidblack] 26/2/2018 10:28

Xclusive I am not saying that pursuing the shallows would be the best course if they were competent on the deeps but the truth is they have currently 100% failure on deeps deliver.

So until they get just one right maybe they should focus on the shallows where they seem to know what they are doing?

[togglebrush] 26/2/2018 09:52

Bull ... you can estimate what you expect but as a hand to mouth company you don't over provision for a BLOW OUT. And growth was rapid late last year.
'
FWIW a major Oil Tanker HIRE company in UK has only 8 available for hire. Which in UK shows there is not a great demand ... position in KAZ I don't know.

[buzzzzzzzz] 26/2/2018 09:39

Smarty

Thought you were talking about barmy army.....cricket!!!

[bullinachinashop3] 26/2/2018 09:34

agreed toggle. However, why did they not look at infrastructure first before more shares for more acarage?

[togglebrush] 26/2/2018 09:29

Storage is probable problem.
'
July_______roughly 6 tanker loads per day (1,250 bopd)
December___roughly 13 tanker loads per day on shallows alone (2,500 bopd)
the extra__with uplift to 4,500 bopd would require 23 tanker loads per day
'
Add in 2,500 bopd for A5 on test and that is another 13 tanker loads per day
'
Nearest pipeline connection is an hours drive away over poor roads. Loading times, paper work and all say an hour driving there and back with say total of 6 trips per tanker per day with 2 shifts of drivers ... a minimum 1 tanker doing six trips double to 2 tankers which doubles again to 4 tankers per day, then 6 or more with A5... add in time for maintenance, driver fatigue, and the inevitable problems with a 24 hour a day 7 days a week working then getting the oil to market can create problems. That is 24/7/365 routine which it is improbable to build up quickly in this remote location.
'
Based on Tanker capacity 200 barrels of oil


'

[bullinachinashop3] 26/2/2018 09:16

agreed x2, bought in here when my son was born at under 3 pence, definitively here for the deeps.

[xclusive2] 26/2/2018 09:11

DB,

If it was 10 years ago then i'd live with shallow success followed by a deep program. They will continue to develop the shallows and share price will be underpinned by real fundamentals BUT the ROI for me comes from the deeps. We're all at different stages in our investment cycle and if they decided to go shallow only, i'll be moving on (-:

[davidblack] 26/2/2018 08:46

Or just they are poor at delivery.

Clearly these deep wells are not easy which is why they should focus on the shallows that yield revenue. It’s their success to date. Why not focus on those wins?

The deeps appear to be endless work in progress or failures depending on your state of mind. What they are not are successes at this point or in the immediate future.

[xclusive2] 26/2/2018 08:34

Buzz,

Public School education...lol.

Maxim,

I believe that they've bought time and had issues, very happy to be proved wrong but i'm fearing the worst.

[maxim1999] 26/2/2018 08:26

I agree if we get nothing this week this will look like another failure. A5 should have been a simple clean up. Could the reservoir have been damaged in trying to get it flowing ?

[buzzzzzzzz] 26/2/2018 08:08

BALMY!!!!!