Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[xclusive2] 31/1/2018 14:17

DB,

Plenty of cynicism from me when high expectations are set and delivery not executed. I think we both know that there was a hype campaign to allow some people off the bus.

Re FD. I agree that he should probably go but i'd have liked to see a positive spin around it and new FD appointed pre exit. As far as we're aware, KO & KS could have fallen out.

Re KO, yep, his external oil interests are now our interests, good or bad. Any other ones we need to be aware of ?

Why was this deal done now ? I understand from the sellers POV but Casper has 10 shallows and 5 deep prospects & SY54 on the go in 2018 . Priority 1 is drilling commercial holes, not taking a punt on other acreage. Maybe I've got this all wrong and KO secretly knows that Dunga 2 is a steal or he's forcing other CP members to cede control.

No more speculation, just deliver the effin results that are being over promised.

[togglebrush] 31/1/2018 14:06

There are 120 calendar days to when it is expected the Company would apply for a 29-year full production licence to cover the BNG Contract Area. This move will be from an appraisal licence, where oil produced must be sold at domestic prices - currently some $16-19 per barrel - to a production licence, where the majority of oil produced may be sold at world prices.
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This has been the target for over 5 years. The possibility of oil from deep wells and maybe even a longer full production licence has also been on the horizon.
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Company has for the first time a good daily cash flow from the shallow wells. It would in my book be foolish to waste cash and time away from focus on the long term target.
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A full production licence at international prices is some 120 days away after a long five year battle. It is foolish not to focus time and cash flow on the original target.

[davidblack] 31/1/2018 13:35

Hi Smarty

No I have not spoken to Clive.

On the asset being acquired we are buying unknown acreage which to date has had no commercial success. We are giving the sellers shares in an established producer with significant upside both in the shallows and the deeps plus cash to pay for drilling.
Also we are apparently significantly undervalued at 12p according to the CEO back in November.

I cannot see the logic for Caspian to do the deal but I can certainly see the reason the sellers would. Also just when are we going to drill the new project? We already have more target holes than we can achieve.

Oh just to add a big dash of cynicism. This type of practice of buying an "Asset" from a insider or related party to give them a sufficient stake in a public company is a standard "Device" to look after important insiders. Now it could be a great asset but today's RNS made no attempt to make the case for that.

The only clear upside is our interests are now much more aligned with the CEO than if the deal didn't happen.

On the ex FD, he broke the disclosure requirements you either see that as important or not. I think the right thing was done.

[xclusive2] 31/1/2018 13:17

DB,

Not sure whether you've been talking to our Clive !

I can spin it many ways -;

All the assets under one umbrella makes sense but was it a good deal ? Good deal for the Concert Party as Casper picking up the work commitments. In the long run it could be great news but as per your previous posts, lets focus on drilling wells that we know will be commercial.

CFO leaving - Don't agree re regulatory power and needed to go. Thought he was an asset for the company, especially with his banking links. Got more shares now to fund against should this deal go through.

Not parted with any cash, diluted by c 9%. I can spin the pro's and cons but time will be the decision maker as to whether this was a good deal.

Nothing has changed outside of this and I want to see the operational success. The company accelerated PR for a reason and with it their expectation setting. It's always effin cold in the Kazakh winter and they should have tempered their pitch, they didn't. They were under a deadline constraint re proving up X million barrels pre June 2018, how would they have done that knowing that it's difficult to operate in Winter. Doesn't smell right to me and it facilitated Dosbol's selling and probably absorbed by some institutions who all acquired a small % below the disclosure limit.

Not sold a bean and will wait the accelerated operational activity that was promised.

As always, tick, tock.

[bullinachinashop3] 31/1/2018 10:56

what a great take DB! thanks, as always for your wise head and input.

[davidblack] 31/1/2018 10:51

Very interesting! Our CEO has at one swoop of the pen rebuilt himself a decent slice of equity in Caspian.

My take is they have decided it would be a lot nicer if Caspian funded the $2m drilling commitments and take the drill risk. Clearly the CEO has been tidying up his affairs and this looks to be another step along that way.

As to the value of the assets? Well who knows if it’s a decent deal?

But you get the impression that the sellers think Caspian’s prospects are good if they are happy to collect their proceeds in shares rather than debt.

The delay was entirely expected and I doubt anyone thought it would be otherwise.

The last part the resignation of the FD is good news. Finally the AIM team have kicked the Nomad enough to get the company to fire the FD for his recent failure to disclose.

Oh one final thought, I wonder if the lack of urgency since the November presentation is in some part down to the CEO wanting this deal completed before the deep drill results are known. He was very convincing that he thought the deeps could be transformative.

[maxim1999] 31/1/2018 10:09

Regarding the RNS, I am sure there are some negatives that I will let others opine on. But I think from a number of angles it is extremely positive.Let's assume that the Due Diligence proves that 3ABest has some fundamental value now and in to the future. If that is true and I was Kuat I would not swap ownership of that for more Caspian shares, where he already owns a significant holding unless I thought the shares I was getting has some significant fundamental long term value. I think what he does in this deal is remove the operational headache of operating the field and passes it on to a team he trusts and controls. He also takes payment in shares where he sees significant value in the Caspian assets but also bulks out the NAV/ portfolio of Caspian and makes it much more attractive to a strategic buyer. Short term we may drift and if there are more delays then that won't help. But Long Term I think is a massive vote of confidence from Kuat. Well done Caspian.

[togglebrush] 31/1/2018 09:57

Band_______Num___Volume___The % Vol
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0k-30k_____12____149,081_____9%
30-100k____15____730,153____45%
100-300k___6_____750,000____46%
TOTAL______33__1,629,234___100%
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Trades are across all bands
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Weather the local temperatures are not far off UK temperatures
and works above the Arctic circle in Russia and Canada continue at temperatures of -40 degree (centigrade and Fahrenheit are same at that point)

[hiddendepths] 31/1/2018 09:07

I have learned that it's never right with this stock to sell on bad news - and it's never right to buy on good news. So I guess it's a buy moment - if anyone has the nerve in the face of yet another jam tomorrow statement.

[togglebrush] 31/1/2018 09:05

Early trades over a MILLION point 2 volume the vast majority SELLS ... not a vote of confidence in recent RNS

[togglebrush] 31/1/2018 08:46

sleveen WEATHER USE LINK in the header for local 25 miles away weather
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01/2018
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Kazakhstan is LARGEST country in the world without a coastline for a salt water ocean

[sleveen] 31/1/2018 08:40

Anyone know if the weather in February is any better than in January?

Probably not, so it could be March before ops start.

Happy to be told otherwise.

[xclusive2] 31/1/2018 08:40

Sue,We are pawns in this game I'm afraid, I for one am fed up of second guessing. I'm all for acquisition but not before we've delivered operational success.Et al,I said I'd wait til A5 news and that's the plan. Only sellers are PI's and will be interesting to see how much. Games being played, who really knows apart from the Kazakhs.

[sue999] 31/1/2018 08:31

They are issuing 148 mil shares at 12p each which is £17.76 Mil. so CC values CASP at 12p a share. why?

[control1] 31/1/2018 08:28

I am mostly out and will be by the end of today and, after 10 years, that is it for me with Roxi, good luck anyone who braves it

The re-brand is now officially a complete failure. When you do that, you are supposed to change the things that gave the old company a bad whiff in the first place.

Here, it's business (or lack of it) as usual and CASP now has the same bad smell attached to it in the market as Roxi did

Good luck trying to get institutional investment, 10 foot barge pole springs to mind..

[evilblues] 31/1/2018 08:16

Carver you are going to get merry hell on the 1st, merry bloody hell.

[sleveen] 31/1/2018 08:03

Managed to get out @ 10p.

GLA

[therealenigmatic] 31/1/2018 07:56

Nothing to say apart from I told you so.

[xclusive2] 31/1/2018 07:55

It's difficult to spin positives when you're expecting one thing and get the left field announcement. Much that I'd thought they'd acquire, I expected this post A5 and other successes. I expected them to be picking up acreage for limited spend and only costs being work commitments. Dunga is producing 17k bopd today but we know nothing of 3abest and the owners are benefitting from its sale to pursue other interests. I suspect our KO will be doing the same soon, he's passed his shares to his kids whilst he can do the same as KS.Any dilution should've been to fund infrastructure costs as opposed to being distracted by other opportunity.Anything else the Concert Party wants to sell Casper !All about trust and that is ebbing away unfortunately.