Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[konil] 19/1/2018 13:15

david, as we know that slide is a load of tosh re. timescales. see some of my earlier posts on that.

but even if you took it as it is, it was a case of completing a5 remedial works then moving that equipment to a6 then to 801 (or perhaps other way around), so in effect nothing concurrent other than 'preparatory works' whatever that may mean.

the thing they completely omitted from slide 25 was the intention to spud a8 in 2017 (slide 28, well summary). but they never clarified where that equipment was coming from - though one may assume its rigs they dont need for remedial works at the other 3 and already have at hand.

if you read the operational update rns's, they give a better picture vis-a-vis the limitations due to equipment availability and the to-ing and fro-ing they do with it between sites.

in short its very clear they don't have the personnel or the equipment to be going full blooded at 4 deeps at the same time. again, nothing wrong with that if they are working within cashflow constraints.

but for pity's sake just get real with their communications, and what about delivering just one thing on time. for example spud of a8 in 2017, after all that does not depend on the complexities and difficulties of actually drilling, its just making a start!

[davidblack] 19/1/2018 12:18

Konil that is not what they said they were going to do in November and December, see page 25 on the slide presentation.

It specified work on all the deep wells A5, A6, 801 and A8 plus a reserves update on MJF and South Yelemes. That reserves estimate certainly should not have been affected by the weather.

[sue999] 19/1/2018 11:29

Is it not possible to apply for aproduction license for the 4000 barrels per day from the shallows, which will generate at least $70 Million year, and then concentrate on the deeps. This way with that kind of income , CASP will be re-rated.

[konil] 19/1/2018 11:19

ah yes, reading their operational updates i think that is what they are doing. they mention moving drill equipment from one site to the next or waiting for equipment to be released from existing ops. in essence not enough equipment to do much more than one deep, perhaps spud the next whilst finishing a previous, but not much more than that.

p.s. that's ok, so long as they deliver a deep!!

[davidblack] 19/1/2018 11:06

Konil I agree with you but they laid out the case that they were looking to proceed on 4 deep wells in that presentation. My point was please concentrate on one and get that to work first. The shallows in the mean time could build up the cash balance to then finance the deeps after they have operationally demonstrated they can bring one on line.

Clearly they have geologically demonstrated oil in the deeps but not demonstrated that Caspian is capable of turning it into production, yet, but I am sure they will but maybe not on CC’s tight timetable?

That was all.

[konil] 19/1/2018 10:48

david, re. post 3181, lth's here have also suffered dilution over the years. roxi came to market with about 168m shares in issue. after adjusting for merger with baverstock today's c.1700m shares is a sixfold dilution (admittedly not as bad as twentyfold!).

lack of debt, yes, but its effectively been equity financing. the benefit of course is that there is no lender breathing down the company's back ready to seize the assets at their whim in case a loan covenant is breached, and no interest payments draining cash.

they are continuing with the shallows but imo they absolutely must deliver on at least 1 deep a.s.a.p. and continue with the overall deep programme.

not only will deep success generate a step-change increase to revenue, but more importantly it will derisk the deep portfolio, prove commerciality of the deep assets, and bring some desperately needed credibility to the company's deep operations.

unless something dramatic happens with the shallow programme (like huge uplift in reserves) it is unlikely to bring any institutional interest, likewise any predatory interest. with deeps in play everything changes.

[xclusive2] 19/1/2018 10:44

Fiat or Ferrari, no good without Lewis Hamilton (-:

[davidblack] 19/1/2018 10:39

Hi Smarty

Yes I understand that in the past when they had no income they diluted and heavily. Re the merger that was not really dilution as it was offset by the rise in interest in the property. My reference to the likelyhood that there will be no dilution here related only to now where they have the cashflow from the shalllows.

As to whether to drill the deeps or the shallows I would agree with you that the deeps are better full stop; except operationally they have had almost no success after years of expenditure of achieving steady deep production.

So it’s on that basis I think they should move the focus to the shallows and possibly do just one succcessful deep rather than look to try 4 as per the November presentation.

Better a Fiat with a full tank than a Ferrari with an empty tank! I believe is an Italian moto.

[xclusive2] 19/1/2018 10:19

DB,Roxi was floated in 2007, 102m shares issued at 38p, a load of cash from the IPO ready to take on the world. 10+years later and we have c1.7bn shares at 11p (after Baverstock merger).They do have a non dilutive approach to funding the business unlike many AIM companies that screw their loyal investors. Mr Fulogas is a good example of that !Re progress, I'd be hugely against the shallow programme only as I invested on a risk/reward basis, plenty of risk, little reward to date. Much that the shallows will deliver good returns, the deeps are the real prize and they are close to delivering my 'unearned lottery win'....lol.Re expectation setting, you know how important it is to set realistic deliverable goals when your a Director of an AIM company. You've met the board at the last investor presentation and you can already see the issue.All about the deeps for me and I'll wait for an accurate, quality announcement. We can but hope.

[davidblack] 19/1/2018 09:40

As a newish investor here and a frustrated one too, I thought “Happening In November and December” meant happening in those months.

However I would prefer that frustration to the real killer of value which is excessive dilution when compounded over years. I have had a 3% holding slowly strangled by dilution and rollbacks so much so that today my 3% has been reduced by a factor of 20! Now that really is painful much more so than the disappointments on timing here.

My humble personal solution would be for Clive to treble every timeline and move the focus to the shallow wells where they know what they are doing.

The deep well failures to date are the destroyers of value so why not ease of there and create a war chest to eventually comeback to them with bigger better drills and more experienced staff?

[timberwolf3] 19/1/2018 09:33

Toggle - Most unlike you, hope all is well.

[xclusive2] 19/1/2018 09:28

An unearned lottery win ? Not asked to invest new money ? Odd statements TB ? If you are an employee then you know the history. This is a listed company on AIM and when floated initially the company were desperate for PI involvement, they're the lifeblood of most AIM tiddlers. Your comments are arrogant re my investment. Companies like Roxi are all too happy to have support from little ole PI's when it suits. Hoping that you're not a senior employee, that would be worrying indeed.

[hallow] 19/1/2018 09:00

Blimey Togglebrush that's a bit strong.

[xclusive2] 19/1/2018 08:05

Control,Much that I'm not a Carver fan, the failure here has been operational, that's not his responsibility. Carver is purely a finance man and a mouthpiece. Any blame sits with the leader KO since his CEO appointment although he's been in the business since inception. Initially the board were far more operationally savvy with geology qualifications, Schoonbrood, Barker, Duncan McDougal being the operational lead but to be fair, he failed too. KO is a trained geologist but his skill is running business and his failure has been to employ the wrong people to do the drilling and deliver the goods. It's not an exact science unfortunately and mistakes are made in the E&P business.Our Clive's failure has been the the communication to the market and the failure to get institutional interest. He may not be the one writing the RNS content and just the messenger. All I care about now is success and that responsibility sits with KO. Unfortunately we can't vote home out so we're stuck with it until he and his team deliver.

[control1] 19/1/2018 05:57

I am more than happy to praise each and every success because it means we have ALL benefited.

Trouble is, it's 1 step forward and 3 back with this company plus, they have a proven liar as the public mouthpiece which KO surely must realise actually tarnishes CASP's reputation (such as it is) in the institutional market place.

There I go Carver bashing again...? Not really, it is 10 years since I first invested here during which time, it's been a catalogue of "if something can go wrong, it will" not all of it under CC's stewardship admittedly but it's a fair old chunk of it

The man is the opposite of teflon, he is a complete Jonah, EVERYTHING sticks and he has ZERO credibility in the market for anything he is associated with, AST being another prime example. I'm really not far off drawing a comparison with Lenigas and NO BODY wants that because we all know what a toxic impact that association has on the reputation of a company but he is going that way...

Hopefully KO's kids are a little more social media savvy and read things like BB's which is the modern world's eye view on what is now THEIR company. Time to wise up kids and hire a respected front man with some actual clout to drive CASP forward rather than sticking with good old uncle Clive....

[xclusive2] 18/1/2018 12:39

K,A good summary. We rarely praise their successes but there are some as stated ie- Shallow programme- Licence deal- Non dilutive approach to funding to date- Galaz deal when backs against wall- Deep success ie finding oil, commerciality to be provenCarverspeak has caused a lack of credibility and that is clear to see by the lack of institutional investment. This is where they have failed to date and only deep success will change this. A great punt this year and down to them to finally make it happen. Carverspeak or Ronseal ? soon find out.Tick, tock.

[sue999] 18/1/2018 12:37

Well said konil.

[xclusive2] 18/1/2018 11:58

This is one of the best E&P growth bets in 2018. Limited downside if any as underpinned by shallow production with more to come. Minimal debt if any and about to go cash flow positive with lots more to come IF successful with the drill bit.Only risk is geopolitical but you pays your money and takes your chance. Many bags to be had if we deliver operationally.

[sue999] 18/1/2018 11:44

Konil,Their website shows P1 reserves of 19.5 mmb. P1 + P2 reserves are 48.8mmb.
So the current valuation is for Dec 2016, P1 reserve using $5/bbl.since many people don't trust word of mouth coming from this company, until official P1 reserve of higher values are issued, nothing is goanna happen.So it seems.

[konil] 18/1/2018 11:08

sue, imo reserves in kaz at commercially producing wells with infrastructure nearby should be c.$5/bbl to $10/bbl, with op headed towards $70.

edit: and of course company valuations are based on reserves and revenues and explo licences etc.
but obviously not for casp. :~(

[sue999] 18/1/2018 11:03

So the current valuation is $138 million based on reserves of 48.8 mmb will give $2.84 per barrel in the ground. seems correct for 2016 figures. Even at 100 mmb, we should be twice this price. Unless I am mistaking somewhere.