Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[hiddendepths] 09/1/2018 09:18

Could only get 50k in one go online. May be an iceberg at 10.94 though for all I know.

[hiddendepths] 09/1/2018 09:10

Call me daft, but I'm tempted to add a few as they're so well bid.

[xclusive2] 09/1/2018 09:05

Nice to see several early buys totalling c£40k. We're on the cusp of receiving so much operational news flow, if the right flavour will send the share price hurtling through 20p alluring the hype to build.How many AIM tiddlers have 3 deeps at a cost of $40m, already drilled with another one due to spud this month. Sooo many wells to report on if you include the shallows invthen we'll have Ops updates on a weekly basis.Add to that the new CPR to be published this quarter, hopefully we will then see a completely different company on the move to far better things,Tick, tock

[roy1982] 08/1/2018 23:33

David Black what are you smoking.

[davidblack] 08/1/2018 21:20

Let’s hope Clive was given a watch with a date window, so that maybe Carver time and mere mortals time can come together? Hopefully!

[hotdeal] 08/1/2018 16:59

Sounds like jobs for the boys
Pity someone does not update Irelands target price

[davidblack] 08/1/2018 16:07

Why would anyone send an analyst out in January to look at a bunch of frozen rigs.

[maxim1999] 08/1/2018 15:03

I would be v surprised if a broker flies an analyst out to Asia to visit a corporate client and you did not get a note.

[davidblack] 08/1/2018 14:36

Hold the Blue sky stuff. Can they actually complete on any well? Recent progress would say not really.

[xclusive2] 08/1/2018 14:24

I do hope we get the opp to hype this as the story is sooooo hypeworthy. Not sure if that's a word or somewhere I've visited in the West Country !Needs A5 to give the street cred and it will fly. Your blue sky analysis above doesn't go far enough but it's a good starter for 10. The only event that will spoil the party will be an early acquisition.

[togglebrush] 08/1/2018 10:41

Playing with numbers can do many things. Using the targeted reserves and looking up to the Big Picture and then down we can get:-
'
Reserves 730,000,000 which will give a licence 49 Years
Which by simple arithmetic, averaging over life of licence, gives a possible 40,816 Bopd but that equates normally to 20,408 bopd retrievable at 50%
'
Using an estimated post June 2018 sales figures then
Sell 80% $65.00 $387,346,939
Sell 20% $17.50 $_26,071,429 gives total $413,418,367 per year
‘
There are shares in issue 1,669,673,820 that equates to revenue of $0.25 per share
'
Comparative share price to revenue figures exist for small to medium sized oil companies on the LSE. A semi independent UK set of eyes, WH Irelands analyst, has recently spent a week out at BNG so we know oil is flowing. But before counting our eggs we need the Gaffney Cline report and the first 90 day flow test before we can count our chickens.

[xclusive2] 08/1/2018 09:54

My error. Only 39 hours.....lol

[sue999] 08/1/2018 09:52

Average temperature for Dec 2017 was-4 Deg C without considering the effects of wind, dropping to -10 at times.

[xclusive2] 08/1/2018 08:44

https://m.accuweather.com/en/kz/almaty/222191/weather-forecast/222191Weather looks very manageable if working 12 hour shifts. Hopefully delays will be minimal (-:

[hornetsting] 06/1/2018 04:47

Xclusive, sage words. No point second guessing, but concentrate on the fundamentals. We are investing in perhaps the only small cap co which is accessing the world beating reservoirs of the pre-Caspian.

[xclusive2] 05/1/2018 18:10

HSting,Probably right but poor old PI's will be second guessing as always. All we need is a result and not waiting forever to get one.Et al,Good to see healthy volume continuing. Some sizeable buys but our seller still feeds the market. Surprised not to have seen a holdings disclosure and was hoping to see a new player (non Kazakh) onboard.S

[davidblack] 05/1/2018 17:46

Maybe it was just not great weather and they all decamped for Christmas to see their families?

The real question is how much of what was promised for 31 Dec will be here on 31 Jan? Hopefully most of it, if not then go back to conspiracy if you must. For me it’s just the oil industry on every continent!

[hornetsting] 05/1/2018 15:51

xclusive,
I agree they are buying time. Operating in Kaz is definitely challenging, but with regard to the weather it is a simple matter of planning and winterising rigs. It is not excessively expensive, winter diesel is perhaps the major cost, but when the ground freezes it makes transport of equipment and supplies logistically easier.

My opinion - this a communication problem as a result of culture and language. The full facts on the A5 operations are probably not known outside a few people in the company. Kazakh bosses are very good at shooting the messenger, so what is reported to London is likely as not a load of half truths and excuses, strangled by poor translation, then deciphered by those having to write the RNS.

still believe BNG is a great asset, and the shallow reserves safe guard my small but extended LTH. and the oil price broke $68 today.

[xclusive2] 05/1/2018 14:48

I believe that the use of 'expected' with regards to recommencing of drilling ops is as a result of A5 issues or delays getting coil tubing, blah, blah.All about A5 and I don't want to see a 2014 saga replay !

[xclusive2] 05/1/2018 13:12

They need access to money markets and will need as many options as possible should they get lucky. It's less risky now than it has been since inception and the increased PR demonstrates they need insti support.

[steveh8] 05/1/2018 12:22

I think as investors we have become conditioned to reading rubbish RNS's, company shenanigans etc. and kind of accept it as part of investing and hope that the management of some companies (the ones we are invested in at present) are more honest than others. End of the day, money is the route of all evil as they say and those who own these companies will do anything to make as much as they can no matter how much they have and won't think twice about doing us over (imho just in case.

One thing for sure, if I had wrote reports at work like the RNS's Clive writes I would have been up the road a long time ago. Something not right about all this the delays, selling etc. etc. but I am still sticking here as the fundamentals tell me to and a bit of gut instinct.

[konil] 05/1/2018 11:19

smarty, re. tethys, imo the only reason its so high profile is because its backers and investors were well connected / had clout, and could take legal action.

many other aim outfits disappear leaving investors high and dry for seemingly no good reason other than management mendacity - mxp and ifl to name only 2 but there are dozens, or maybe in 3 figures - but usually these quietly disappear into the mist, there is no high profile blow up because the investors are ordinary folk who individually have no clout.

in short i'm hoping the tethys saga is just part of aim investing in general and does not point to any increased risk for casp other than that.

re. stale bulls, i'm as fed up as you, but i don't think either of us are yet stale because we still believe in the assets. more to the point i'm hoping once an initial monetisable success is delivered perhaps followed soon after by another, there will be an almighty spike especially if its deep related, which will leave little opportunity for 40p exit.

despite years spent looking at it i can't read this story well enough yet, so i cannot devise an exit strategy, other than imagining numerous scenarios, good and bad. so i'm going to have to make decisions as it unfolds.

if the assets are as good as they seem what i don't want to do is exit too soon, having borne the risks for years and then leave the rich pickings for others. its a difficult one to guage.