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CCL Carnival Plc

-12.50 (-1.13%)
Last Updated: 09:34:49
Delayed by 15 minutes
Carnival Investors - CCL

Carnival Investors - CCL

Share Name Share Symbol Market Stock Type
Carnival Plc CCL London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Last Trade
-12.50 -1.13% 1,089.50 09:34:49
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
1,098.50 1,083.00 1,101.50 1,102.00
more quote information »
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Top Investor Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 31/12/2023 18:46 by jan-mar
I hope 2024 is a good year for you all, traders and investors alike stay safe
Posted at 22/12/2023 08:34 by undervaluedassets
I suppose there is always the risk of another pandemic which is now permanently etched in investors' minds.

Results yesterday were stellar but perhaps the "it is better to sell than to arrive" mob is selling a few now. It happens.
Posted at 17/11/2023 12:43 by pierre oreilly
It may not reach 1400 in your timescales (hours, causing you to miss out on the big profits), but it will get there, and beat record highs, in investor timescales (years, for those who want decent profits).I'm hoping for the resumption of divis soonish, as a statement of their confidence in the future, irrespective of their debt (which is easily serviceable imv).
Posted at 07/11/2023 19:06 by joey wilson
2 WC booked for 25 and 26.1 GT booked for 24On the basis that the next GT is fully booked and other people are reporting how busy the cruises are, this has to be a screaming BUY.I've put my money where my mouth is and gone in deep today.Investor benefits are a no-brainer to get extra obc.The cheapest way to be fed, entertained, and see the world. Making memories with P&O.ALB.... Great longer-term investment.JW
Posted at 04/11/2023 18:12 by pierre oreilly
No idea. I'm confident they'll move back into profit at some stage, but covid messed things up. I doubt anyone knows all the details of the accounts - even the company accountants (a bit like microsoft, where no one knows all of windows, the knowledge is distributed). And with multi nationals, profits can to a certain extend be manipulated even ore than pure uk companies. My view is that ccl is at the current price with the current prospects, and i expect the business to improve from here (hence the share price to improve). Simples. I've never even tried to go into and understand big company accounts - i think they are not understandable, especially for pis. Even auditors just say something like the accounts represent a fair indication of the business - nothing detailed there, even though you need a bunch of consultants on 4 or 5k per day to tell you that.

There's a lot of pure luck in investing (even more in trading where odds are you lose), but the economy relies on a rising stock market over time, so the odds are in investors' favour.
Posted at 20/10/2023 19:17 by jan-mar
In actual fact IG Index do tell you before you open an account to spread bet that 70 percent of spread bets lose money. You do have to take a test to ensure you do understand how it all works. We could of course be an investor like you holding shares at an average of 10 pounds, watch them go to 13.80 and then down to 8.40, not the smartest strategy. I get a very fancy and expensive brochure from Cunard every few week's offering me all sorts of on board spending, so not sure the shareholders benefit counts for too much these days unless you cruise a lot. The debt burden in this business will hold it back for years to come. Anyone in at a decent profit at any time should lock in that profit. Anyway good luck to anyone in short or long I hope money can be made
Posted at 11/7/2023 18:25 by smurfy2001
I use Investors Chronicle as a contrian indicator.
Posted at 09/7/2023 09:24 by sambuca
Investors’ Chronicle

Global cruise passenger volumes are expected to be 6% ahead of pre-Covid levels this year, causing excitement in the market. Shares in this Miami-based cruise operator have soared more than 100% in 2023, but markets are expecting “too much, too fast”. A $30.5bn net debt pile remains a major headache, especially at a time of rising interest rates. Persistent inflationary pressures and higher spending on advertising will also act as headwinds in the near term. The voyage ahead will be rougher sailing than investors expect, so sell. (1,348p)

Posted at 28/6/2023 21:22 by jan-mar
Correct, I'm happy for anyone to make money in the markets, traders, investors anyone that can do it. He has a problem with that as it's his way or no way. His average is 10 pound, so he says, which means he has held some higher entry shares for over a year and been sat on a loss, now in profit, good luck to him. This has been a traders share for ages. It's all about percentages, some are happy with 15 to 20 percent per year, not a bad return.
Posted at 28/6/2022 12:16 by smurfy2001
Carnival: Positive Trajectory

Jun. 24, 2022 6:06 PM ET

Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)

Carnival reported FQ2'22 results showing a positive trajectory in the business, though far from perfect.

The cruise line indicated strong booking trends for 2023 as consumers are able to plan for trips without worries of travel restrictions.

The stock is cheap at $10 with normalized earnings at $3 per share, as debt is repaid and interest expenses are cut.

In no huge surprise, Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL) reported a quarter of improving results. The largest cruise line didn't report a perfect quarter, but the company and the sector continues to head back to more normal times in the travel and leisure sector. My investment thesis is very Bullish on the stock after the dip back towards the COVID lows, which was ill-timed considering the dynamics of the business are far improved now.

Positive Trajectory
As already discussed on previous research on Royal Caribbean (RCL), the cruise line sector reached an inflection point in the Spring with a return to positive cash flows. The companies no longer are heading down a path of burning cash and needing to raise additional funds. The only question now is the level of cash flows leading to debt repayments in the future.

In no surprise, FQ2'22 ending in May was all about the company restarting guest operations and filling up boats. Carnival reported that May quarter occupancy reached 69%, and 91% of capacity was back to cruising in June with strong bookings reported for future periods. During the quarter, the cruise line only averaged available lower berth days (ALBDs) at 74% of total fleet capacity in a sign of how far the business was still from reaching a full recovery until the current quarter.

Similar to the airline sector, the cruise lines are now back to near normal operations with capacity slightly below 2019 levels and ultimately headed higher by 2023. The only question is how packed the cruises will be going forward.

For FQ2'22, revenues were up 50% from the prior quarter to $2.4 billion. Carnival still reported a large loss due to the low occupancy in the quarter and restart of operations on several ships leading to higher expenses without the full revenue benefits.

The company was cash flow positive due to a large $1.4 billion increase in customers deposits for future sailings. The total customer deposits are now $5.1 billion.

Back in 2019, May quarterly revenues were $4.8 billion with customer deposits up at $5.8 billion. Clearly, Carnival still has a lot of work to match 2019 levels in a sign that cash flows still have plenty of upside ahead.

As such, the market shouldn't spend too much time focused on the past quarter results with Carnival spending most of the period restarting operations. The cruise line has already increased fleet capacity from 74% as an average for last quarter to 91% for the current quarter pushing the cruise line close enough to full capacity to produce solid financials. Similar to the airlines, Carnival should be able to boost occupancy levels with capacity below 100%.

The market sold off the cruise line stocks over the last month on fears of lowered bookings with recession risks perking up. Carnival admitted some mixed view on near term bookings, but the long term picture was strong with these following nuggets in the earnings release or call:

Booking volumes for the second half of 2022 sailings, since the beginning of April, have been higher than 2019 levels.

Cumulative advanced bookings for the full year 2023 continue to be both at the higher end of the historical range and at higher prices, with or without FCCs, normalized for bundled packages, as compared to 2019 sailings.

Currently, we are seeing success for close-to-home cruises, with many sailings achieving occupancy at or above 100%, where guests perceive far less friction than with international embarkations. In fact, our Carnival Cruise Line brand, sailing its entire fleet, is expected to reach nearly 110% occupancy during our third quarter.

A big reason for the improved booking in the 2H of the year and into 2023 are the relaxing of COVID restrictions, both for flying to foreign embarkments and just general testing restrictions for domestic trips. While the market is focused on some of the noise around recent ship occupancy trends, the trend remains tied to far more normalized bookings in the future.

Bargain Bin
A lot of investors were hesitant to purchase Carnival on the rally during 2021 on valuation fears with the enterprise value topping pre-COVID levels. Due to the higher debt levels and shares outstanding, the market felt cruise line stocks shouldn't match those prior levels on this key metric.

With the recent dip, Carnival now has an EV of ~$40 billion below the $45 billion level pre-COVID. Investors need to be careful using such a metric because the number doesn't accurately reflect the financial position of companies with large asset balances acquired via debt.

Carnival ended May with a cash balance of $7.2 billion and a debt position of $35.1 billion leading to a net debt position of $27.9 billion. The company now spends about $400 million on quarterly interest expenses, above the $50 million pre-COVID.

The cruise line has to eliminate a lot of the debt to reduce the interest expenses and boost EPS. Still, the positive indications from the quarterly report appear to set up Carnival to return to the earnings path from a few months ago where 2024 EPS targets were above $2.40 per share.

The stock was trading below $10 and this is all investors need to understand. Carnival trades at only 4x EPS targets still out a year, but more inline with normalization trends.

Remember, Carnival has the potential for a massive boost to EPS by cutting the interest expenses by over $1 billion annually (net interest expenses were only $200 million pre-COVID). With the share count at 1.14 billion shares, the EPS boost from lowering interest costs alone is at least $1.

The additional share count limits the EPS potential to closer to $3.00 in comparison to $4.50 pre-COVID, but the stock trades at only $10 now compared to $50 pre-COVID. The risks of a recession induced slowdown shouldn't be ignored due to the massive debt levels now, but investors shouldn't misplace fears when signs of a travel slowdown don't actually exist due to pent-up demand.

The key investor takeaway is that Carnival remains on a positive trajectory towards a full recovery. The market is too focused on recession fears while pent-up travel demand remains strong.

The cruise line appears poised to recover the majority of their prior business suggesting a much higher EPS ahead, even if it doesn't match the pre-COVID levels due to higher debt levels and share counts. The stock is just too cheap at $10 with a full recovery insight.


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