Carnival Share Discussion Threads

[bmnsa] 08/3/2020 08:06

Northern Italy of 15 mil people now in lockdown.

[mattd1] 08/3/2020 07:45

Was interested in CCL last year but didn't invest. Look a bargain now, but wondering how risky, given unpredictable virus situation, likely to hit cruises bad for a while...

I reviewed 2019 fin stmts, 188 pages and frankly don't have the time to piece the whole thing together. They are capitalising interest it seems presumably where it is a finance cost of boat building. Fine in normal circumstances. Maybe I am wrong and misunderstanding this. Can anyone confirm?

I see they have revenues of 8.6bn, but also see they have very high cash outflows relating to new ships. Again normal circumstances all good. But if there is a significant revenues hiatus then alarm bells.

In their 2019 results they refer to 2020 impact per share of coronavirus which today sounds low, given Italy lock down and expected continued growth in the spread.

Has anyone else got a clearer view on CCL cash flow position? Imagine passenger cash was down 40% in 2020, can they take it?




"
Fiscal Year 2020 Coronavirus Risk
In response to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, China has implemented travel restrictions. As a result, we have
suspended cruise operations from Chinese ports between January 25th and February 4th, canceling nine
cruises. We also expect that travel restrictions will result in cancellations from Chinese fly-cruise guests booked
on cruises embarking in ports outside China. We estimate that this will impact our financial performance by
$0.03 to $0.04 per share. If the travel restrictions in China continue until the end of February, we estimate that
this will further impact our financial performance by an additional $0.05 to $0.06 per share. Five percent of our
capacity was scheduled to be deployed in China in fiscal year 2020. If these travel restrictions continue for an
extended period of time, they could have a material impact on our financial performance.
"

[mroalan] 08/3/2020 03:23

At pres in Albany on the PO Arcadia,due in Freeo on Tues,Weds then we haven,t got a clue neither has the captain,Columbo is closed,which was our next port,so guess is going around Aus AGAIN or straight home,due home on 12th April.
Share price looks generous?

[essentialinvestor] 07/3/2020 23:41

Peak infection for the UK is estimated very approximately around Easter.

[muffinhead] 07/3/2020 23:21

Vice President Pence boring the pants off cruise company execs

[panshanger1] 07/3/2020 18:24

Need some visibility on peak infection rates in US and Europe first.

[velocytongo] 07/3/2020 13:43

Then buy Turvart. That's what I'm doing.

[turvart] 07/3/2020 11:06

This is just madness where the share price is at the moment, but it's not surprising either if that makes any sense due this scare of Coronavirus and the Diamond Princess, but looking at the long term picture I would go back to saying this share price is madness!

I know that probably doesn't make much sense but looking 2 years forward I think it does make sense.

[muffinhead] 07/3/2020 10:54

It's Monte Carlo or Bust technically for the shareprice if 2000 fails

Personally not interested but bargain hunters territory

Quarterly timeframe chart.... huge candle to complete end of March

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[muffinhead] 07/3/2020 10:46

Coronavirus: thousands stranded on Grand Princess cruise ship after 21 cases confirmed


When mass gatherings like football matches have been stopped.........

Surprised all cruises are not suspended until this all blows over

Potential legal compensation consequences longer term

[bmnsa] 07/3/2020 00:32

2nd Britain to die from covid19 had just come back from a cruise.Oh no.

[gabsterx] 06/3/2020 20:41

Thanks Graham, will be looking to start a position at these levels trading way below book value. Long term dividend investor so I'm OK with some short term pain!

[grahamburn] 06/3/2020 20:36

GrabsterX

No withholding tax on Carnival dividend.... just like numerous shares with dual listings you just benefit or lose depending on the pound/dollar exchange rate on a given date a couple of weeks or so before the payment date.

[volsung] 06/3/2020 18:12

Once sailed up the Nile on a fellucca. Very nice it was too

[pierre oreilly] 06/3/2020 17:50

Pretty obvious thing to do isn't it bmn? If i were frail, I would cancel mine too, and try to isolate myself for a while. Since me or the mrs isn't frail, we'll be going on our cruise in 3 weeks with no concerns at all. I think by that time, the days of not letting cruise ships dock will be over, so we're not even expecting any inconvenience from that worst case angle. If we catch a dose, I'm happy that we won't even notice, or we'll have just mild symptoms.

ccl can keep your friends' fare and try to flog their cabin again, probably much cheaper, so a bargain for someone.

[gabsterx] 06/3/2020 17:34

"Does anyone know whether the dividend from the UK shares are subject to withholding tax? As it is a dual listed company with the US I was not able to find that information."

Anyone?

[tlobs2] 06/3/2020 16:32

I wouldn't class anything that travels up and down the Nile as a cruise ship !

[spideyyy] 06/3/2020 16:18

Cruise ship on the Nile 12 staff test positive

[bmnsa] 06/3/2020 16:02

Suet
Yes for a day that is true.
But since the virus struck and cruises scare, signs were there giving a lot of time to see the writing on the wall from weeks ago right up to today.
How can it improve into the weeks ahead as the situation just deteriorates further.

Confined places seem to be he worst for catching the virus.

Friends of mine have just cancelled their cruise to the northern lights in 2 weeks time losing the whole amount paid as they are not in the best of health and are worried about falling for the virus while onboard.
They reckoned they would rather lose all the cost of the holiday than chance losing their lives.

[tlobs2] 06/3/2020 16:00

Stop ramping BMNSA.

Yes we all appreciate that CCL have a great history and lots of money.

I'm looking forward to adding to their profits when I am next aboard with them in two weeks time. I'll start by using my shareholder onboard credit which should last us a day or two ;-)

[inthemix] 06/3/2020 15:57

UK coronavirus has spiked today, the weekend maybe carnage,I'd recommend staying in cash or short (if you're brave)

[suetballs] 06/3/2020 15:55

Very hard to buy at the bottom - look at the share price over the last hour or so.
Suet

[bmnsa] 06/3/2020 14:18

Why do folk not sell now and then buy back much cheaper?It's only going to travel one way for the next week or more.Down.

[lefrene] 06/3/2020 14:12

alex1621, incredible!

I suppose it's time to start looking at Fibonacci measures, this peaked at 5000p so somewhere around a drop of 3300 would hit that 66% mark? So 1750p to 1800p for the bottom? Not far to go now. Perhaps another couple of weeks and the market will start to look through this hiatus and decide the world isn't going to end after all. But I suppose we need to see those quarantined ships off our tv screens first.

[fardels bear] 06/3/2020 13:53

Must have been quite an old video or he would have been three when WW1 ended.