Carnival Share Discussion Threads

[miata] 16/1/2012 11:19

Morgan Stanley being pessimistic:

We are worried about knock-on effects: Cruising is a
safer way to travel than air, but the investigation may
take time, the story is getting global publicity, and people
are unlikely to book until confidence returns. An
apparently disorganised evacuation may lead to tighter
regulation. We cut our bear case to £10, with -8% yields.

Where is the floor? We hope this tragedy can be put
down to a very specific error, which can be rectified
through procedural or technological changes. But with
so many questions as to how this could possibly happen
to a modern cruise ship, investors may start to consider
historical trough valuations as a share price floor. For
CCL, these are 8x P/E (£10) and 1.5x EV/sales (£12).

[miata] 16/1/2012 10:44

Numis relatively optimistic downgrade:

16 Jan Carnival PLC CCL Numis Hold 1,857.00 - 2,150.00 Downgrades

[miata] 16/1/2012 10:41

All passenger ships are deficient in this respect so i cant see any legislation changes.

Plenty of expensive, posible solutions - slide launched rafts from bow or stern similar to those on oil rigs for example.
Double hulls. However such ideas are for the very long-term.

[insails] 16/1/2012 10:10

For many years merchant ships have launched life boats off the stern.
It has long been understood you cant launch side hung lifeboats off the high side
and the low side is a very dangerous place to be.

All passenger ships are deficient in this respect so i cant see any legislation changes.

The lesson is to get people off early before listing initiates.

Had the Concordia been heading into deeper water then the outcome would have been truly horrendous.



I just bought in.

[optimist] 16/1/2012 09:50

If large ship design is a problem (although I suspect it is not) then RCL will be very vulnerable. They have a fair number of hotels built on powered barges than are far bigger than anything Carnival has,

[miata] 16/1/2012 09:48

Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight and cut its earnings outlook, adding that "it could be materially worse if the investigation finds industry safety standards need improving and/or consumers stay away for a prolonged period."

16 Jan Carnival PLC CCL Morgan Stanley Equal weight 1,855.00 2,700.00 1,800.00 Downgrades

[alphahunter] 16/1/2012 09:44

That's why the market are so quite today.
Probably ideal time to clear the desk or do some research.

[miata] 16/1/2012 09:42

With the US being closed for MLK holiday, I don't expect to take a position at least until Wednesday.

[edmondj] 16/1/2012 09:35

e.g. that they don't have enough lifeboats!

(for cruisers with 4,000 people, many elderly)

[cambium] 16/1/2012 09:34

What concerns were they?

[pft10] 16/1/2012 09:31

On the today prog this morning, an 'expert' was voicing his concern regarding modern ship design such as those operated by CCL - his did not state specifically the company or design but it left little doubt the type of ships he was describing.

[miata] 16/1/2012 09:21

I concur, the difficulty is timing as "AirFrance's shares went down 10% on the day and down 25% over the following six weeks." illustrates.

[alphahunter] 16/1/2012 09:18

Way overdone in my opinion. My first glance reaction:

Following this AirFrance's shares went down 10% on the day and down 25% over the following six weeks. As a benchmark, Lufthansa went down 13% (IAG/BA share's price not available), so the drowning of the plane may have cost AFKLM 12% in Mcap. Casualties were in the hundreds.

The plane was clearly a Air-France branded-one, with the headlines focusing on the airline company's name. In the week-end's case, the Costa Crociere brand takes the hit, not Carnival. I'm not sure that prospective holiday makers will necessary link the two to the same extend given the multiplicity of brands. The stock is down 17.5% as I write, at 1850.

[sandbank] 16/1/2012 08:52

The costs for CCL here are going to come in essential modifications for the sister vessels of Concordia following the inevitable CCISM investigation. Perhaps unwisely the company has already admitted the captain was at fault so it can stand by for a raft of claims from the passengers or, in the case of fatalities, their families.

Perhaps it would save further costs and reputational damage by "floating off" (if that that's not an unfortunate expression in the circumstances) the subsidiary that runs "Concordia", Costa Cruises and let Costa paddle its own canoe.

[nicebut] 16/1/2012 08:45

Gross negligence...Maybe? IMO etc etc

[broadwood] 16/1/2012 08:36

Nobody seems to have any answers yet why this happened.

Failure of navigation systems, incompetence of the crew?. Until they have some explanations,there might be a reluctance in future bookings.

[miata] 16/1/2012 08:23

Potential 10% upside, but let the sellers sell for a while.

Long term reputational damage.

[ny boy] 16/1/2012 08:16

Good long term buying opp coming up, they have insurance to cover this event. Short term blip really.

[jon827] 16/1/2012 08:14

Market dont like the uncertainty then. the statement read like there could be more costs to come

[nottud] 16/1/2012 07:11

RNS indicates that the company thinks (hopes?) that the incident will have a relatively small impact on the shares.
I think the chart above is an overreaction - but we will see in a few hours.

[muffinhead] 15/1/2012 20:50

NYSE closed Monday

London will do the honours...target 1500 i think

40 week moving average pointing down...already in bear trend so bombs away

[ccnp] 15/1/2012 20:30

Scuba diving just improved off Italy

[harvester] 15/1/2012 17:08

taking a Carnival cruise sounds more exciting than watching the Poseidon adventure film.
Now what compensation will be offered to the passengers? Another Italian cruise holiday?

[jon827] 15/1/2012 16:45

The vids on sky clearly show there where some Americans onboard, so someone will defo get sued.

It's a shame people had to die.