Carnival Share Discussion Threads

[harvester] 12/4/2011 16:01

Big jump up of CCL today(100+ pts). You have to have strong nerves to trade this one .

[harvester] 09/4/2011 17:59

Miata:

Are those credits good for paying for on-shore trips? Presumably not. Shopping is a bit expensive on-board the cruise liners.

Yes, oil prices are a drag.

[miata] 09/4/2011 11:09

Not looking for a recovery soon with crude oil for May delivery up $2.49 to $112.79 a barrel on the NME, the highest settlement since Sept. 22, 2008. Futures advanced 4.5 percent this week and are 32 percent higher than a year ago.
Brent oil for May settlement increased $3.98, or 3.2 percent, to end the session at $126.65 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was the highest settlement since July 30, 2008.

In their 2010 annual report Carnival estimated
'2011 fuel expense would change by approximately $3.5 million for each $1 per metric ton change in our average fuel price'.

[re Perks
Any shareholder who qualifies and takes a cruise with Carnival's UK-based businesses (P&O Cruises, Cunard, Princess Cruises or Ocean Village) for at least 14 days gets £125 worth of credit to spend on-board (this cannot be used in the Casino or to pay tips). This is equivalent to getting a 5.3% dividend. Shorter cruises attract smaller credits.]


Onboard credit per stateroom on sailings of 14 days or longer US $250 € 200 £ 125 A$ 250
Onboard credit per stateroom on sailings of 7 to 13 days US $100 € 75 £ 50 A$ 100
Onboard credit per stateroom on sailings of 6 days or less US $ 50 € 40 £ 25 A$ 50
The benefit is applicable on sailings through July 31, 2012. Reservations must be made by February 29, 2012.

[harvester] 07/4/2011 12:21

my cautious short positions via options taken since Jan/feb have worked out well. I have no need to close those positions.
Carnival share price has fallen around 700 or 20% since its peak in January; I would have made much larger gains if I had shorted via CFD; instead made small gains via options but at lower risk.
I think that CCL has now reached a consolidation phase and may stage a slight recovery soon; it will stage a larger recovery when oil prices start to fall .
Again I have backed my view by taking a small long position via options and may add to that . The long position via put sale is a cautious bet that CCL share price will not fall below 2000 by mid-june. That balances the earlier short position that it will not rise above 3200 by mid-June. The gains from these trades are small but worth having since a big safety margin is built in .
Togo: enjoy your cruise and your on-board perks; you may even be lucky with your share purchase .

[optimist] 01/4/2011 10:15

togo2

What onboard perks do they have?

[togo2] 01/4/2011 09:36

Bought a 100 of these for the onboard perks ,big mistake.

[pillion] 15/3/2011 23:02

so where is post 812

[miata] 11/3/2011 18:07

Carnival fell back after it lowered its full-year guidance due to surging oil prices and turmoil in the Arab world. It now predicts earnings per share of $2.50 to $2.60 for the full year, sharply lower than the previous envisaged range of $2.90 to $3.10.

[harvester] 11/3/2011 14:46

not that good either today; interims at upper end of guidance; share price down 88 now,120 earlier on. Investor worries due to fuel prices.

[wad collector] 03/3/2011 08:31

It's not that bad!

[harrybigdick] 01/3/2011 16:58

I have buy orders in at circa £7

[wad collector] 01/3/2011 15:59

And another director sells 180,000 ; not exactly a vote of confidence.

[harrybigdick] 27/2/2011 08:06

FEBRUARY 24, 2011
Carnival Execs Sell Sinking Stock

Not surprisingly, the surging price of oil has hurt airlines and cruise ship operators, both industries that consume plenty of fuel.

For example, Carnival Corp. (CCL) closed at $45.70 on Friday, but on Tuesday (the first trading day after Monday's Presidents Day holiday) the stock tumbled to close at $42.09. Since then, it has continued to lose ground, falling to $41.91 in today's trading session.

However, the cruise ship company's executives did not wait that long to sell shares. Both CFO David Bernstein and CEO of the Carnival Cruise Lines division Gerald Cahill sold roughly 18% of their direct holdings on Tuesday, according to data from InsiderScore.com

[miata] 22/2/2011 17:50

Strong US buying in July options. Supports longer term value.

[harvester] 21/2/2011 18:55

Yes, the carnival seems to be over and my earlier short reported above looks not so badly timed now .

[miata] 21/2/2011 16:01

The oil price has topped $104 a barrel as protests spread across Libya. Fuel-hungry cruise operator Carnival is among the fallers.

[miata] 09/2/2011 09:42

Looking back
"older couples with grown-up children and low borrowings – provides hope that bookings remain firm. However, it seems churlish to assume that rising unemployment and the erosion of its customers' wealth from falling stock markets will leave it wholly unscathed. At £18.86, or 12 times next year's earnings, sell."

Two comments
- Sell at £18.86 - not sure they got it right unless they took a very short term view.

- The point about their customer's demographics is spot-on. Customer's wealth increases from the rise in stock markets should leave Carnival unscathed.

[harvester] 01/2/2011 09:53

Looking back:


"
wad collector - 30 Sep'08 - 21:35 - 296 of 798

From The Times last week.

After two years of being clobbered by crude, oil prices are finally coming to the aid of Carnival.

Shares in the world's largest cruise ship operator have rallied more than 40 per cent from their July low, providing a near-perfect inverse correlation to the slide in crude over the same period. Not that fuel bills are no longer a headache for Carnival. The Miami-based company – which operates 88 ships across 11 lines, including Cunard and P&O – still expects to spend $678 million more on fuel this year than it did in 2007.

All the same, the recent easing in oil prices will add $60 million to profits in the final three months of the year against previous expectations. The flipside, as confirmed by Carnival in yesterday's third-quarter results, is that a stronger dollar will also dent profits – around one third of which are drawn from Europe – by around half that amount.

But a falling oil price means that investors' worries over energy costs have now been supplanted by another equally persistent concern: the resilience of consumer demand in the face of looming recession in America, Britain and Germany, its three biggest markets.

But like TUI Travel and Thomas Cook before it, Carnival yesterday lent weight to the theory that consumers have yet to cut back on holiday spending. Onboard expenditure may have eased, but the effect is negligible.

More important, Carnival has left its near-term sales forecasts unchanged: advance bookings are running slightly below last year, but ticket prices have risen. Given the necessity for cruise operators to ensure that their ships sail full – because of their high fixed costs – the fact that Carnival has been able to resist cutting prices so far is a powerful sign of its confidence: especially given that the launch of five new vessels next year will increase capacity by nearly 9 per cent.

But the importance to trading of the first three months of the year – the peak booking season for cruise lines – means it will not be until March at the earliest that Carnival will be able to tell whether 2009 forecasts are likely to be met. The insulation to date of its typical European customer from the credit crunch – older couples with grown-up children and low borrowings – provides hope that bookings remain firm. However, it seems churlish to assume that rising unemployment and the erosion of its customers' wealth from falling stock markets will leave it wholly unscathed. At £18.86, or 12 times next year's earnings, sell.



.They got it right so far."


This is a hard share to trade and can be very volatile.
Nevertheless, I have made a cautious move to take a short position via options.
The short bet I placed assumes that the Carnival share price will not reach 3600 by mid June. Having placed this trade I am hoping that the high oil price will put a bit of a break on the share price. I also hope that I can find a bargain cruise so that I can do my investment games in comfortable surroundings.

Good luck to all investors and traders here, long or short .

[chrysalis] 26/1/2011 21:46

21st Jan ......... Dividend increased by 150% to 25c per share or 2.18% taking it above the average dividend payout.

[nellie1973] 07/1/2011 13:44

Broker upgrade

[miata] 06/1/2011 12:49

Cruising higher, up another 50+p to £32+ at this point.

[miata] 05/1/2011 17:50

Cruised higher again today, up 57p to close at £31.53.