Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[pal44] 19/7/2017 10:02

Just to add the Top Man has left... why ?

[fenners66] 19/7/2017 09:40

If they want to raise money by selling businesses what is going to actually sell?

Profitable businesses sell - loss making ones raise some cash - but incur further write downs and probably a commitment to fund the associated pension deficit so money raised is leaked out at a high rate and the loss on sale gets added to the years exceptionals and the overall loss reported raises again.

Take a look at where this would leave the balance sheet after the already noted £850m write off and know that a huge Rights Issue is inevitable.

Do the maths!

[fenners66] 19/7/2017 09:36

Oh yeah and that pension deficit doubled in a year when pension funds returns averaged 30% so a return to normality and the deficit could be much higher than £1bn

[fenners66] 19/7/2017 09:34

As I already stated :

I looked at the Pension deficit note:


Doubled in 1 year from £393m to 805m - yeah really under control.

They try to add back to the balance sheet £141m of deferred tax asset - but since we see the losses racking up here those deferred tax assets will be worthless for years to come.

What's to say the pension liability is not already £1bn?

[seconduser] 19/7/2017 09:15

nomdeplume, you don't expect an intelligent answer do you?

[rcturner2] 19/7/2017 09:14

the funny thing about the chatter about the pension deficit is that the end 2015 figure is being used, with reference to what the end 2016 figure might be

well if you look in the last accounts you can find out the actual figure and yes it did double in 12 months and has only got worse since

[nomdeplume] 19/7/2017 09:02

pal44 : "Plenty of contracts been relooked at .. not good"Why is this "not good"? Is this not what you should hope would happen?

[nomdeplume] 19/7/2017 08:57

Very short term views being expressed. I can understand why, but it's very unhelpful to any analysis of long term value. Following a crisis, companies often emerge better run and more cost effective. Clearly, the previous management left a lot to be desired. However, to suggest that everything will carry on as before is ridiculous.

[m4rtinu] 19/7/2017 08:56

If this wasn't costing me so much, it would be very interesting to watch!! :(

[scamper] 19/7/2017 08:52

Shorting disallowed currently, no stock?

[escapetohome] 19/7/2017 08:42

Construction? Dont go near it.

The worst management in human history. Plonkers!

[pal44] 19/7/2017 08:27

Plenty of contracts been relooked at .. not good

[excell1] 19/7/2017 08:09

Bought more.

[mad foetus] 19/7/2017 07:51

I've not got a position here but would steer well clear. Industry furious about HS2, but the big issue is that Carillion have for years taken 120 days to pay their sub-contractors, which has destroyed any goodwill they have. Sub-contractors now can see the trouble they are in and won't extend them any credit: they will want payment in advance or surety bonds. I can't see how Carillion can survive or carry out work at the prices they have previously quoted for, now they are in a position of such weakness.

[sarpanch] 18/7/2017 22:47

@racg- please tell me if any of my facts are wrong. We can make money depends on our luck on a daily basis, however this upward momentum will not last long.

[sarpanch] 18/7/2017 22:33

So far I haven't shorted any stock (too risky for my liking). I am always very conscious of when and where to invest. I have invested a very small amount due to a very volatile nature of this stock.

[sarpanch] 18/7/2017 22:26

May be another dip is coming tomorrow morning.

Few current contracts has been cancelled/under review as well

-OXFORDSHIRE County Council - Signed in 2012 for 10 years had been cancelled
- BT - Openreach - £900M 5 year contract is under review

[racg] 18/7/2017 22:19

If one were being uncharitable, one might conclude that you are short sarpanch. Short and worried. Ps If you encounter Mr Odey, tell him to get knotted.

[racg] 18/7/2017 22:17

Hilarious.

[sarpanch] 18/7/2017 22:12

No one on there right mind would buy this stock for long terms.

Pros - None
Cons -
- Carillion’s £2.3bn pension fund had a deficit of £393m at the end of 2015. This could have grown to as much as £800m, according to Stephen Rawlinson, the independent analyst.

-Andrew Nussey at Peel Hunt said the firm “probably needs to raise £500m through disposals and an equity raise”, and other analysts suggested that a fundraising would be a more likely rescue strategy. However, no one business is valuable enough to solve Carillion’s cash flow problems, meaning it would have to butcher its portfolio in order to raise enough cash.

- Carillion could also try to woo rivals Balfour Beatty and Kier, who compete with Carillion on construction work, to launch rescue takeover bids. However, both have ruled out a deal for now.

- Mike van Dulken, analyst at Accendo Markets suggested that without serious financial intervention, the company could sink without a trace.

From a BBC article-
What now? Mr Bland says the company's financial position is "very unclear".
"You could conclude that the equity value of the company is zero", he added.

[pbutterworth1] 18/7/2017 18:41

Large buys after hours = share price up again tomorrow morning. This share looks like a strong buy at this price, and the kind of situation that may make a lot of money for investors GLA

[glenkaz] 18/7/2017 18:14

Ooooooooh check lonmin chart to! Gonna fly over £ tomorow defo IMO! 👌🏼

[glenkaz] 18/7/2017 18:12

I believe in miracals (1.20) where ya from! You Suxy thing you! (Hot chocolate) 😋