Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[candid investor] 23/2/2017 19:29

Wow..missed a lot on here today. Well I don't subscribe to the conspiracy theory surrounding hedge funds. I believe there is a simple explanation for the shorters shorting..but the answer doesn't lie in any of the fundamentals i.e. debt order book economy etc but in the technicals which refers to the charts of the share price..apparently there was a double cross over in the charts on the 50 days and 200 days moving average or something similar that occurred which prompted the technical traders to take out huge bets...nothing to do with how well or badly the company was doing but about the signals that these rare events give and apparently these signals are very accurate normally. Saw a video specifically on it for carillion...these signals at the time pointed to downward trajectory on the shares to around £2 at the time when they were trading nearer to £4 and I believe that that was the trigger for the shorting...the reason they continue shortish get is because those signals in the share price trajectory are still consistent with downward movement which is what we are still seeing. There will be an end to it and the pattern will reverse...and when that happens the shorts will buy back and the squeeze will at some point happen. Not there yet but on video I seen it was suggested it would happen around £2...don't ask me for reference as came across it early thus morning when I couldn't sleep and can't remember where. If I do find it again I will reference it. Anyway I will keep holding and collect the dividend and wait for the technical charts to align to the fundamentals.. if you Google Carillion share price you will see graphic charts and select the 5 years one and you will see a very symmetrical downside trajectory of the share over that period and you can see that £2 is on the cards and maybe even £1.80 but that isn't aligned with fundamentals even with the debt and the pensions do very patient like me and await for £3 and get out although the guy explaining it suggested it cautious to get out at £2.75 I am not an expert at technical charting but the Harvard guys are and that I believe us what they are using...not conversations in building sites or cafes or whatever...they ignore fundamentals and only act on what the Charts are telling them.

[neilyb675] 23/2/2017 19:00

RCTurner2
23 Feb '17 - 18:35 - 3856 of 3857    0   0 (Filtered)

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 18:45

UtyINV - I am so relieved that the 99% success rate you quoted is not real! Thanks for your confirmation.

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 18:35

red, I have no axe to grind, I am long the shares I hold and in fantasy football terms short the shares I have sold.

I am genuinely interested in what happens here and in the views of longs. I change my mind every day and am not wedded to any investment idea I hold today.

Debate is healthy and I often judge a stock by the intelligence I perceive of the posters on either side.

[utyinv] 23/2/2017 18:16

Anyway, I hope the results on Wednesday are good and that they (Carillion) maintain their current dividend policy. Continue paying decent returns and sooner or later for those that still have shorts open they will surely have to close them sometime.

If results aren't good and the divi's is cut we lose and the Hedge Funds win.

We only can wait and see!

[jaf1948] 23/2/2017 17:53

UtyINV,

99% success rate ? Who told you that ?

From 'This is Money' August 2016:
'Crispin Odey - the charismatic hedge fund manager who correctly bet on the financial crisis of 2008 – has been caught short by the rally since the Brexit vote and is emerging as the worst performing European hedge fund manager so far this year. But his more recent forecasts of doom have so far failed to materialise and his flagship €730million (£628million) fund is languishing at the bottom of the rankings.'

From The Guardian August 2016:
'Hedge funds faced a net outflow of $55.9bn this year, as losses and exorbitant fees are compelling investors to take out more money than they put in.'

Look at this table: hxxp://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/09/20/HFs%20YTD%20HSBC.jpg

I will not write any more on this subject but I'm afraid you have swallowed the Hedge Fund success story without really doing any objective research on it.

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 17:45

UtyINV - an interesting comment of yours. "....... but its ironic that we sometimes have to second guess whilst Hedge Funds have a certainty that provides them with a 99% success rate."99% success rate? I am interested to know where this 99% success rate comes from if possible and it will be very much appreciated.

[redartbmud] 23/2/2017 17:43

zoo

Latest number that I saw is 0.92.
Under 1 is considered low, by any standard. Bby is 2.29 in comparison.

Is that any help.

I just get fed up of multiple posts by one person droning on along exactly the same lines, in my opinion, with some sort of axe to grind. When that happens I filter. It is a personal decision.
Feel free to be an RCT disciple.

[utyinv] 23/2/2017 17:34

JAF,

One can only hope the Hedge Funds get burnt but as RCT correctly states the Hedge Funds do get it right at an incredible success rate opening up suspicions of collusion and corruption.

Have you not seen the official disclosure that Cameron and Osborne have been advising Hedge Funds? Giving Dinner Speeches and 'one to one' advice to Hedge Fund Managers on the state of the Market. These are the same people who have had regular personal audiences with CEO's and FCO's regarding the true state of their Companies. BTW Cameron and Osborne are no different to many other politicians across all parties that use their previous positions to line their own pockets after political office.

Many of us will continue to manage our portfolios by doing our homework and analysing the Companies we invest in, but its ironic that we sometimes have to second guess whilst Hedge Funds have a certainty that provides them with a 99% success rate.

[jaf1948] 23/2/2017 17:10

UtyINV,

Of course, no market or institution is 100% 'clean' but I am afraid you are closer to paranoia than the truth. If you believe even 10% of what you have written, you would never invest in any shares again.

[utyinv] 23/2/2017 16:57

RCT,

Having Invested in the Markets for many years 35+ It is quite surprising the corruption and manipulation that goes on. Hedge Funds have politicians in their pockets and many went to the same school.

It isn't surprising that Osborne (ex-Chancellor) and Cameron (ex-Prime Minister) both work and interface with Hedge Fund Managers giving speeches and advising Fund Managers what they believe is the weather of the Economy.

Now we all know that ex-politicians or politicians that used to have high office cannot disclose confidential info, but over coffee how can anyone prove what was or what wasn't said?

I can recall many instances where Shorting (which is legal) and Naked Shorting (which is illegal) have taken place but when there is an investigation the authorities need hard proven facts and then when they do have the facts sometimes do not act on it because of damage to the reputation of the economy.

BTW 'Naked Shorting' does still take place where Hedge Funds do not legally take shares on loan from Institutions (pension funds etc) for a fee, but where they contact a Broker they know, went to school with, has done business with etc.

For example Hedge Fund Manager contacts 'Broker Y' asks them to sell Million of shares In 'A' Company. When 'Broker Y' asks have you got those shares, the Hedge Fund Manager says 'Hey 'Billy' you know I am good for it....'. Then 'Broker Y' sells the shares for an agreed price. Before Settlement day the same Hedge Fund Manager contacts the same Broker 'Broker Y' and asks them to buy the shares back (albeit at a lower price due to an effective short)and on settlement day the balance in £ is paid into Hedge Fund Manager's account, all shares in Circ. are in their rightful place. No investigation, all balances up etc etc. Illegal but sure as hell goes on!

People have been calling on regulators to clamp down and investigate illegal activities like this but its naive to think that politicians and regulators aren't sometimes complicit with the activity themselves.

What's stopping politicians or people with sensitive information letting slip some confidential information to Friends / ex School /Uni Chums etc? Who can prove anything was said?

Don't forget CEO's CFO's etc all enjoy part of their remuneration in Company shares. So let's say a CEO has been awarded £1million in shares. Let say these shares which normally market in the range £3-£4 are currently £2. Working on extremes in this scenario instead of the CEO getting 250,000 shares, he/she gets 500,000 shares all part of his/her agreed renumeration (and that does not include performance related share options).

Sometimes the evidence is there to see if the investigators bother to look hard enough.

But as posters have said, there is no way company sensitive information can get into the hands of Hedge Funds who are notorious at short term gain by shorting the stock to hell! It's unthinkable, surely not the case.......????

[zoolook] 23/2/2017 16:37

Red

If it was the case that holders who spouted low quality noise were similarly hounded away I'd agree. But they're not.

Question for you. In the round given their variable cash position do you think they are currently trading below book?

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 16:18

red - thanks! You are a fair person.

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 16:13

zoolook - I like to hear different opinion as well, just cannot stand some people making opinion intended solely for personal gain. I have my laugh and will stop now.No problem.

[redartbmud] 23/2/2017 16:08

zoo

It depends on the quality of the comment. Agreed that is a personal value judgment.

[zoolook] 23/2/2017 16:06

kcsham

A board is improved if there are contrary views. What is the merit of positive only views and ramping? Like RC2 I have made money out of CLLN in the past. I may buy in again at some point. I like to hear both sides before forming a view

[redartbmud] 23/2/2017 16:00

kc
I used the filter button a long time ago. It reduces unnecessary noise.

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 15:54

RC - I now remember, the business consultant I used before always like to have a laugh. Nice guy!By the way, I like to have a laugh, very often, as well!

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 15:48

kc, I have to laugh that you think I am "spreading negativity"

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 15:42

RC - turn left! Turn left ! and March!Well done!

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 15:39

RC - don't go back further. Please! Just show us your back. Please!

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 15:36

LOL! It makes my day.

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 15:36

RC - did the shorters invited you to join their team?

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 15:34

RC - you sold out? Oh! That explains why you spreading negativity. Great man! Good confession! How brave!I salute you!