Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 15:31

Shall I keep going back further?

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 15:31

RCTurner2 - 19 Oct 2016 - 04:10:50 - 3033 of 3833 Carillion - Charts & News - CLLN
wad, there is also the possibility that Carillion is turning into a value trap, where people continue to buy on the apparent increasing dividend yield right up to the time the dividend is cut. Yields of this level are often warning signs. Now it may be that Carillion is being unfairly targeted by shorters, but in my experience they tend to know what they are doing and have a success rate that is high enough to concern holders here.

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 15:29

For example:

RCTurner2 - 08 Dec 2016 - 13:44:54 - 3142 of 3832 Carillion - Charts & News - CLLN
240p looks like quite a crucial support level. If that breaks then 220p could well be on its way.

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 15:27

WJ, sold mine, made a profit, have done so twice on Carillion

turned more bearish recently

so what?

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 15:22

A good conclusion......

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 15:21

GARYCOOK - Also with CLLN you have the problem with Carillion has Debt, Pension shortfall like a lot of other company in the market, but it not a problem. The company can serve its debt without a problem and expects to lower its debt as mentioned in the last statement in Dec. 2016. My wife is retired and drawing pension from Carillion. She received an update booklet from Carillion at the end of 2016 on the performance of part of its pension fund (related to the inherited Mowlem pension commitment after taken over Mowlem years ago). The investment returns from fund was bigger the pension payment its retired employees. The 20% plus shorting by those Harvard graduates certainly has a negative impact on the share price. Are they a winner or a big loser is still waiting for judgement.But maybe a good time to buy soon.Hopefully after results next Wednesday.

[edmundshaw] 23/2/2017 14:54

Windjammer, good digging.

[garycook] 23/2/2017 14:51

What I cannot work out.Is that since Brexit the FTSE 350 is up over 10%,but CLLN is down over 15%,Says it all really.With all the Construction and Support services sector coming under increased pressure,and problematic.Everything is doom and gloom.Also with CLLN you have the problem with Debt,Pension,and the 20% plus Shorters.But maybe a good time to buy soon.Hopefully after results next Wednesday.

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 14:50

W1NDJAMMER - You are good in "information gathering"! Thanks

[jaf1948] 23/2/2017 14:48

kc,

My comment was a bit tongue in cheek but having been a consultant, every client my company dealt with had to sign a confidentiality agreement that worked both ways.

Anyway, this all fills up time until next wednesday when hopefully we will have something better to talk about.

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 14:43

JAP - I only used the consultant when I prepared to start a business after retirement, the guy is nice, like RC, The information he gathered from me is nothing confidential. So, it was not worth to make a fuss about it. Thanks for your comments anyway.

[w1ndjammer] 23/2/2017 14:39

now i get it......... anybody smell a rat.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


RCTurner2 - 24 Aug 2016 - 09:17:24 - 2890 of 3823 Carillion - Charts & News - CLLN
It's a perfectly sound, boring business that does what it says on the tin.

You get a good dividend that is growing every year.


RCTurner2 - 24 Aug 2016 - 06:14:34 - 2880 of 3823 Carillion - Charts & News - CLLN
Very happy with that set of results.

RCTurner2 - 26 Jul 2016 - 07:00:23 - 2850 of 3823 Carillion - Charts & News - CLLN
Two good statements today.

From a chart perspective we are at what appears to be a crucial moment as whether we move up or down from 260p either breaking the trend or confirming the weakness.

RCTurner2 - 21 Jul 2016 - 13:11:17 - 2840 of 3823 Carillion - Charts & News - CLLN
The dividend is well covered here, I think a cut is very unlikely.

RCTurner2 - 06 Jul 2016 - 07:40:35 - 2802 of 3823 Carillion - Charts & News - CLLN
The important thing is that the business under the bonnet is performing well. The share price will follow in due course. Carillion have a very long record of raising the dividend each year and as long as they continue to do so we will all be fine here.

[jaf1948] 23/2/2017 14:32

If you had signed a confidentially agreement, you should have taken the consultant to court. If you hadn't signed one, then you only have yourself to blame !

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 13:54

I had use a business consultant before, he provided advice service to a group of people like me. You know what happened? By chance when our group of people started to communicate to each other, we found that our consultant used member A's information to advise member B and member B's information to advise member C and.......So I am not surprised how much people will tell you through your "information gathering"

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 11:59

I am a business consultant and very occasionally for a client I will do some "information gathering". Trust me it is amazing what people will tell you if you ask them. I have phoned up sales staff in companies, asked them where stuff was made, what countries sales were made in, margins all sorts of information that you cannot believe will get blabbed over the phone and at trade stands.

[jimbo44] 23/2/2017 11:43

The way money is made is by exhaustive research looking for that extra bit of information that will make the difference. This involves many things and one of them is definitely by personal visits either to companies, sites, stores or whatever is necessary to get an edge. A professional racing gambler has complete blood line history cross referencing until they find a prospect. Not fool proof by any means but takes out at least some of the uncertainty. It sets them above the normal punter with loads more knowledge.

[lonrho] 23/2/2017 11:40

The problem with hedge funds know what we don't in this case is that they went short 25% of the stock in 2015,and surely if they knew something then it would have come out by now. Also they are supposedly Harvard graduates who set up their own hedge funds and work together. The company trades in the UK ,Canada and the Middle East, where are the hedge funds shorting from the areas in which it trades on leaking local bad news.

[jaf1948] 23/2/2017 11:40

lab305,

I totally agree with you.

[jaf1948] 23/2/2017 11:39

So a bloke in the works cafe tells the hedge fund that they produced 2m widgets last week. From that information, without knowing the production cost per unit, the cost of the raw materials, the marketing costs, the interest being paid on loans and the distribution costs to name but a few, the hedge fund can work out whether to short a company or not.

[lab305] 23/2/2017 11:38

This is all irrelevant as the vultures took their positions around 18 months ago. Nothing has materialized since to justify their position. Company trading not spectacular but steady. If enough powerful hedge funds go short on a company it is a self fulfilling prophesy and the negative publicity it generates creates even more downward pressure. They are not clever just conspiratorial thieves.

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 11:34

RC - I see,it is site visit after all.

Somebody in a cafe? Interesting and I enjoy your finding, full of fun.

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 11:30

RC - Have ever worked on a construction? You really believe shorters will be invited to have a site visit by the site manager? This will not happen. Nobody will be allowed to be without permission. No permission means no entry and no insurance cover for any trespassers. Your suggestion that shorters actually visited sites to gather information to support your decision making is laughable.

I said the above because I was a senior site manager/agent for over a decade.

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 11:21

to give two examples that I know are factual

1) a fund actually periodically placed orders with an internet company in order to track the order numbers used on their purchases

2) a fund sent staff to a manufacturing site specifically to talk to people in cafes about the current trading

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 11:19

kc, I know for a fact that a specific hedge fund visits constructions sites, in this case house building

hedge funds can monitor actual business activity in lots of ways, specific to the industry and company in question

take it from me they are not keyboard warriors

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 11:15

RC - Have ever worked on a construction? You really believe shorters will be invited to have a site visit by the site manager? This will not happen. Nobody will be allowed to be without permission. No permission means no entry and no insurance cover for any trespassers. Your suggestion that shorters actually visited sites to gather information to support your decision making is laughable.

I said the above because I was a senior site manager/agent for over a decade.