Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 11:13

JAF, you can walk into a Next store and chat to the staff, maybe you can even find the store manager. You will be surprised how much information such people will cough up in a normal conversation. You can attend a trade conference and visit stands and talk to people about their businesses and their competitors, amazing what you can actually learn.

[fabius1] 23/2/2017 11:12

Clever or not, I think there is the common sense matter of hedging one's bets with regard to the considerable debt outstanding. My impression of CLLN is that it is a badly run almost hand to mouth operation cobbled together over the years with addons. They have largely relied on the infrastructural budget to keep them going on paper thin margins, as with most of the industry. Head office bids for work and then subs most of it out. The whole sector leaks and it starts at the top with civil servants.

Edit - That may be fine for sector employment etc but that does not necessarily make it a good investment.

[jaf1948] 23/2/2017 10:58

As jimbo rightly points out, hedge funds may have better tools, better algorithms and better educated staff than the average investor but they do not have any information that is not already in the public domain. If they did, it is called 'insider trading' and they would, sooner or later, be found out.

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 10:53

It is astonishing to me that people cannot accept that some market participants have more information than others.

[jimbo44] 23/2/2017 10:51

The guesses shorters make are educated by assembling as much knowledge as they can before they take action. It is what most PI's do not do which is why shorters have more information and come to that why major investors also have more information. Which is why there is no obvious major investor buying of CLLN at the moment. The information is basically the same. I am a PI that does research but try to pick off gains from depressed stock. For example ISAT was a buy when is dropped below 600. It also has a good yield so that makes the gamble attractive.

[jaf1948] 23/2/2017 10:50

RCT,

I don't care whether all have the Nobel Prize for Economics. I am retired - it makes no difference whether they are cleverer than me or not. But you are right - I have no respect for Hedge funds whom I regard as parasitic.

[jaf1948] 23/2/2017 10:46

red,

Yes, shorters working together have much greater influence on the overall market and it is that, IMO, that has caused the largest drop in our share price

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 10:44

JAF, I know people who work in hedge funds, do you? The fact that you think they "guess" is laughable it really is. They are right often enough for me to respect them. It is clear that you don't have much respect for them, I guess that you don't like the idea that they are cleverer than you?

[redartbmud] 23/2/2017 10:42

JAF

I agree, it really doesn't matter about the pedigree. However, I believe that they are known to each other and the history creates a bond.
I really don't believe that they have any more information than the rest of us.

Just MHO

[w1ndjammer] 23/2/2017 10:36

Its not worth arguing CLLN have well over a thousand suppliers,no way to keep track
40 years back maybe, construction industry has become so technical now, its changed
beyond belief.

WJ.

[jaf1948] 23/2/2017 10:34

RCT,

You have your ideas - I have mine, and they are not going to meet.

Shorters either guess right or they guess wrong. If they did have all that extra knowledge from these 'very best people', how come they do not win every time but if that is what you want to believe then please continue to do so. They may well have got it right with CLLN but that does not prove they have additional information.

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 10:29

JAF, it is quite clear from your posts that you do not know anyone who works in a hedge fund. You are confusing gamblers with accounts at IG and the like with serious hedge funds who manage millions sometimes billions of £ for clients. They employ the very best people.

Windjammer, you can tell a lot about a business from how their buying patterns change over time.

[w1ndjammer] 23/2/2017 10:14

RCT

lol have you ever been on a construction site, CLLN have literally hundreds live
at the moment. impossible to work out weather to go long or short by putting your
hard hat on. supply chain lol what will that tell you, nothing.

WJ.

[jaf1948] 23/2/2017 10:09

If that's what you want to believe, fine. Having worked in industry for many years (now happily retired) I find it difficult to believe that anyone with financial information that is not already in the public domain would pass on that information knowingly or unknowingly.

Shorters are not highly intelligent Harvard Graduates with insider knowledge. They are, for the most part, simply gamblers who, on the information available, make their bets.

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 10:05

......burst of the dot.com....

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 10:05

JAF, hedge funds do far more leg work than most people realise. Yes they really do go to sites and visit people, talk to people in the supply chain, pretend to be customers etc. They don't look at a company's accounts for half an hour and then decide to go short.

[rcturner2] 23/2/2017 10:03

I can wait. I would rather sacrifice some gain to protect against the risk of a fall.

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 10:03

I agree that the shorters know more than me, knowing more sometimes don't help. Have anyone heard about information explosion?"The information explosion is the rapid increase in the amount of published information or data and the effects of this abundance. As the amount of available data grows, the problem of managing the information becomes more difficult, which can lead to information overload."It could kill! Like those experts' advice before the bu

[jaf1948] 23/2/2017 10:00

Where do the shorters get their extra information from with Carillion ? From the company itself ? Totally illegal and easily discovered. From going around every one of CLLN's projects and asking the people on site what the profit margin is like ? Too ridiculous to even comment on.

So they are Harvard Graduates ? Would it be different if they were Yale graduates or Oxford graduates ? Going to Harvard gives them no advantage in forecasting CLLN's results.

Unless someone can actually give me proof that shorters know more than the rest of us then I file it under the likes of conspiracy theories and urban myths.

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 09:55

Thanks red!

[jimbo44] 23/2/2017 09:50

Don't miss out RC. What is the downside on current evidence? 20% max loss? Upside??? And then there is always the yield if divi holds of course. You are right though shorters do know more it's their job to. But they are not the fountain of all and CLLN may just, just have dropped enough. I am an eternal optimist and do quite well with it.

[redartbmud] 23/2/2017 09:46

kc

14 Harvard graduates in 14 US Hedge funds, all shorting.

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 09:41

Could somebody reminds me where are those graduates come from? Harvard U USA?

[kcsham] 23/2/2017 09:35

I am most interested to see some astute fund managers will see the value this share and start a massive buying to teach those graduates a valuable lesson.

[jimbo44] 23/2/2017 09:34

Given the IRV news this has so far held up quite well. So fears of shorter insider knowledge are maybe unjustified. Waiting for the December update to be confirmed next week and then we will see....!