Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[spoole5] 27/2/2017 08:26

Interesting week ahead. How will this play out?

[kcsham] 27/2/2017 07:55

2badboy - Well, you have done your homework?

[2badboy] 27/2/2017 07:14

Small point to bear in mind, this isnt purely a construction business most of its profits come from support services which makes it a different beast animal.

[kcsham] 26/2/2017 16:14

123 - thanks for your latest posting, I agree that the factors you are considering are all important and have no negative comment on the posting.I did say that I don't usually invest in construction company, because if it fails it fails with nothing left unless they own properties or land. I only invest in a construction company if I believe it will not disappear for a medium-long term. Of course, this will all be down to personal opinions and tell you how I see Carillion.You asked me what value I will place on Carillion's share, it is a question only those financial establishments dare to give an answer. I will only say any share should has a value as its market price at a particular time. However, I will unlikely sell my holding on Carillion until its price goes over £3.00. It is my personal target price. Of course, never say never! I will monitor the situation throughout my investment period and adjust accordingly if necessary.Hope you could find the bottom and buy-in in time. K C

[123trev] 26/2/2017 09:04

KC,I use the same investing tools as most and pay particular attention to those charts of course I have made mistakes and costly ones at that after making fantastic returns getting in early on the tech boom and selling at nearly the top I reinvested a large proportion many months later at fractions of what I sold for only to find that my thoughts had been very wrong with regard to my optimism.Ignoring the fundamentals at the beginning and during the boom made me a great deal but ignoring them after the crash,cost me half of it.I see a bounce here at £2 but I see the trend as going down further and I have my thoughts as to where.Investing is about patience I agree but also understanding the story,what is the end game here for the shorters! Obviously they believe the dividend is unsustainable as it is and paying down debt should now be a priority any future downturn would make this stock very vulnerable given the value placed on intangibles here incidentally what value would you place on them!

[kcsham] 25/2/2017 15:17

edmundshaw - 15% a year return was not rubbish especially in the lean years. In the middle of a bull run, you could double or triple or .......you money with no difficulty. In year like 2008 you may find your capital turned into few % of your original investment in extreme short period of time. So "Even the best strategy needs to be mofified over time as the market changes ......" is a spot on comment. Because the stock changes quickly. A day is a long time!I did use spread betting and CFD with City Index for many years when I was working. Sometimes I bet couple of pounds per point for a particular just before my lunch break and checked the result after. I could win twenty, thirty pounds in that short period of time. Of course that could go the other way. I do learnt quite a bit about how crowds behaved under that sort of environment and others ......K C

[edmundshaw] 25/2/2017 12:04

Always interesting to hear people's honest investing philosophy/experience.

I have heard quite a few people in the past (before 2008) saying that 15% a year return was rubbish, they expected at least 20. Realistically, only a huge amount of luck gives returns like that for more than a few years. Even the best strategy needs to be mofified over time as the market changes or other investors climb on the bandwagon (and that applies particularly to hedge fund strategies I think).

Agree that long term investing works, trading only for a select few or for a limited period of time.

[kcsham] 25/2/2017 11:35

Sorry for my long and tedious posting above and good luck to all our holders on coming Wednesday. Have a nice weekend all!K C

[kcsham] 25/2/2017 11:33

123 - thanks for your reply. As I said before I am a slow investor, your reply is not late at all. However, you are not answering my question as how your intelligent way to pick your shares to buy (may you only do shorting) but telling me your past bad experience. That is a disappointment.I often pick oversold but valued share to buy, I won't say it will be 99% guarantee or even any guarantee to pick a winner. But I can say: "so far so good" and that is over a period of decades. May I give you a good advice (not some) as well. Good investment gives good return (obviously) and it needs patience and diligence. Your are correct in one point, never believe doing research will give you a guarantee winning, it only gives you a better chance to win . It is a matter of probability just like everything in life. I must said I don't do trading, it may gives you a good taste to start with, the end result will be just like all gambling .......I heard quite a few self- confession from some well known traders in different seminars or training sessions and even by some authors in their books. How trading bankrupted them and how they learnt from it and became better. Will gambler getting better? I could be but the chance will be extreme slim. It is a matter of probability again.Am I right to say shorting is a kind of trading? Make your own judgement.By the way, to give your some confidence on what I have said. MRW is a well shorted stock for years and still is. I had bought in MRW in right prices periodically over the past two odd years. I sold out with a price at 241 short while ago (just over a month?) and made a few thousand pounds in profit on my invested capital and a few more thousand pounds from collecting dividends.......no bad to my standard. I may be just lucky and I am so far so good........

[123trev] 24/2/2017 23:36

Kcsham,sorry for the late reply been busy.i get the impression though your request might have been a little leary,lol.Some good advice to start you off never buy a stock with such a high level of shorting and don't presume you know its value based on research because ultimately others decide that as you have seen here and they often go much further than your research might suggest.

[redartbmud] 24/2/2017 20:01

zoo

I know that:
1. Margins are paper thin.
2. Pensions deficit.
3. Intangibles.
4. Borrowings.
5. A few contracts that may need provisioning.
6. Dividend cover y/e '15 1.96x
7. Net gearing 17.09%
8. Maturing debt refinanced on 30 January, with a total facility of £1.4bn.

I could live and work with their balance sheet, as long as there were no biggish banana skins around.
I trust the management.

We will see come 1 March.

[kcsham] 24/2/2017 19:55

WJ - I agree with your interpretations of the chart 99% except that I believe the MACD is in fact below the signal line. The 1-year chart may be a little bit too difficult to read, the 6- month, 3-year and 5-year charts all show this more clearly. All trends are negative and these indicate there will be a continuos fall of the share price of Carillion if there is no other interruption appears soon.The RSI, SMAs and MACD used in charts are all lagging indicators. These indicators are either below neutral level of 50 or in negative zone at the moment which shows most investors on the market are in a negative mood and feeling much so under the influences of the shorters' operation. However, all this negativities could all change if the result on 1 March comes out as expected by the management or better.Although shorters may stay on after the result, I believe they will leave before the XD day or sooner.So I believe result to be announced on 1 March will be a trend breaker.

[w1ndjammer] 24/2/2017 18:29

Our preference:short term rebound towards 230.5.

Alternative scenario: the downside breakout of 208.25 would call for 200.75 and 196.25.

Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is negative and above its signal line. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the share stands below its 20 and 50 day MA (respectively at 221.07 and 230.8).

WJ.

[kcsham] 24/2/2017 17:31

JAP - I believe 2. will be most likely but with some alterations:2. The company was spot on in December 2016 and the shares will rally a bit then start ...to settle. Most of the shorts may remain ....until just before the XD day.

[wormhasturned] 24/2/2017 17:18

CEO would have warned already if trading weak, rules out 1., 2 likely with a caveat, what that might be is anyone's guess, however this co. is not a long term hold, it has been a desperate investment bar the dividend, the CEO should pass the baton as he is not realising any value for shareholders, but while they are getting paid for lending their stock they'll be happy to remain invested!

[jaf1948] 24/2/2017 16:34

Most probably IMO, there are 3 outcomes after next wednesday:

1. The company admits that they have not achieved what they stated in December 2016, the shares fall further and the shorters win even more.

2. The company was spot on in December 2016 and the shares will rally a bit then start to fall again. Most of the shorts remain.

3. The company has had a cunning plan all along for the shorters - results have been more successful than expected, the share prices rises very rapidly and the shorters get burnt.

I hope for number 3 but I think number 2 is most likely.

[kcsham] 24/2/2017 14:39

123 - candid investor had described how to pick and invest in value shares. I agree with candid and I pick share for my investment in a similar way. In addition, I don't normally invest in any share until I have spent 3 months or longer to understand the company and the performance of its share unless I have invested in the company before. I am a slow investor but a very good learner. May I have the honour to know what is your strategy to invest your money in stock market? Of course if you don't mind.

[w1ndjammer] 24/2/2017 13:57

Trev what is your target price ?

WJ.

[essentialinvestor] 24/2/2017 13:41

Warren's favoured holding period is rarely forever, he has chopped and changed
positions frequently over recent years, at least on the quoted equity book.

KO, AMEX are still there.

[candid investor] 24/2/2017 13:36

I should add that I am not a Warren Buffet type of value investor of buy and hold forever...I buy when trading at or near 12 month lows and sell when trading near 12 month highs. It seems to work.

[candid investor] 24/2/2017 13:28

Kiwi hope...I think you and I think alike on our investments..absolutely agree that no more acquisitions and start reducing debt . I am a value investor. My starting point is to find shares trading at 12 month lows which is a probable indicator of oversold and then examine their balance sheet and annual reports. Did this with Carillion a couple of weeks ago and whilst I didn't like the debt or the pension deficit the former isn't too imprudent given current interest rates and the latter is a theoretical figure which will move up and down and which is being addressed. If I were FD for Carillion would adopt business as usual approach but no more acquisitions...wait for the eventual turn around in price and then opt for a rights issue to pay down debt when yield and therefore cost of capital was lower than bank loans. Surplus cash would then be made for sensible strategic investments. All things considered now I would be selling shares in Balfour Beatty which are way over valued at present as not long since they were trading at £1.90 and now nearing £2.70 and fundamentals haven't changed much and then buying more shares in Carillion who fundamentals haven't really changed since they were trading at over £4. Do your own research though and make your own decisions everyone.

[w1ndjammer] 24/2/2017 13:16

Trev

think you are getting CLLN confused with the penny stocks you usually buy.

WJ.