Caribbean Investment Share Discussion Threads

[solero101] 22/2/2021 22:52

I have had these for just over a year and seen them move up and right back down. A lot of the bull arguments earlier looked at the dividend announced and extrapolated what this (then) implied for final dividend and further dividends meant in the months and years ahead. Whilst Covid and the bank merger/takeover have loomed large this year, it always struck me as strange that even experienced investors thought the dividends would continue to flow unabated.
If you look at the actual dividend announcement, it says that that was almost exclusively due to lapsed warrants on CIHL shares, the subsequent accounting procedure allowing dividend payment, rather than any underlying profit performance.
Ergo, just because final dividend payments are almost always larger than the interim dividend payments (which that one was), doesn't means that it always follows it will be so.
My point is, it is much more likely that any subsequent call options would also lapse at this level, rather than at the highs which CIHL got to late last year. Does anyone know if there are other option packages out the that are likely now to lapse ? This, I think, is a much likelier source of future dividends than a seemingly mediocre performance that has been seen over the last year. If so, this would be much more supportive at this level of the market IMHO.

[wllmherk] 22/2/2021 22:09

Hold these at 37p but considering a top-up with recent dividend income. Under 30p seems good value after recent acquisitions. It will be interesting if we see a reinstatement of the dividend at the next set of results, although I suspect they may take a cautious approach to see the full extent of the economic carnage that lies ahead.

wllm :)

[noirua] 20/2/2021 11:30

A note on Banks at the start:

My guess for CIHL at 27p to 32p remains in place. Always dangerous to guess a lower figure though I expect some maneuvering is going on there in Belize.

[noirua] 19/2/2021 11:48

I'm not sure now where CIHL goes from here. It has fallen through the 37p stopping point chart-wise and is now nearly at the 30p shelf. The lowest point indicates about 26p - 27p before being open to the floor around 12p - 14p. The banking sector looks tricky on bad loans so it is probably a wait-and-see situation IMHO.

[montyhedge] 14/2/2021 14:02

I keep a eye on these, but soon has dividend passed, I sold.I will look again the day they resume dividends.

[noirua] 10/2/2021 11:28

Evil Knieval at Play - Some interesting moves. More interesting will be the outcome for EK's short of TESLA. Has he blown it big-time or just maybe the C.O.B. will come right in the end and make it 'A GREAT ESCAPE' - my view, he should be right in time though all these young gamblers across the pond may not be finished yet. If you are under 40 you are young in these USA Presidential days.

[noirua] 05/1/2021 10:09

Evil Knieval at play dons his kilt and heads for the border sword in scabbard:

[noirua] 23/12/2020 13:52

I moved out of CIHL into Blockchain and gold shares. The former has done really well but the latter suffered. It is always a guess with the share price of CIHL though I see a continued drift down to between 28p and 37p. That because the coronavirus new strain will be difficult for some countries to control and CIHL interests are set to suffer further.
Looking to buy back in at 37p or lower.

[investor0109] 21/12/2020 17:12

Noirua- agree with Cawkwell that CIHL firm hold at current price. May fall back a little given recent events, though recent sellers may be caught out by large/fast move upwards on a little good news within coming months. Value stocks could offer huge upside over next 12-18 months, CIHL among them.

[noirua] 17/12/2020 11:55

Evil Knieval at play and unsure about good money coming hither or thither or maybe twixt and between:

[noirua] 16/12/2020 14:18

Today's report shows that CIHL has suffered under covid. The chance of a dividend coming out of profits looks unlikely. The shares IMHO look overvalued now and may go below the recent 37p low point. Restless investors may consider exiting or reducing their position.

[investor0109] 09/12/2020 11:33

Noirua- though I would put it quite like that, agreed that it is a somewhat precarious position, as many banks are. Believe more recent acquisitions will stand in good stead given time and that CIHL greatly undervalued. Belize government debt indirectly owed to CIHL something to look out for. Settlement of debt would likely transform company and share price to reflect it. All courts ruling in favour of Bank of Belize (CIHL)and new government in office- any day now.

[noirua] 09/12/2020 11:08

Investor0109 - CIHL looks to be an interesting investment cobbled together these days and treading the broken twigs of covid 19 in hopes of regaining traction.

[investor0109] 17/11/2020 18:34

Noirua- here's hoping Cawkwell proven right in time. Interesting point regarding Belize government outstanding debt to Belize Bank (CIHL) in context of them perhaps needing to borrow more. Half year report due next month not likely to be particularly impressive, though potential resolution to government debt and further acquisitions makes this a good opportunity in my opinion.

[noirua] 15/11/2020 15:00

The CEOM’s Preliminary Report on Belize’s 2020 General Elections!
13 November 2020

Follows on: The CEOM’s Preliminary Report on Belize’s 2020 General Elections!

John Briceño Sworn in as New Prime Minister of Belize

[noirua] 13/11/2020 13:01

My guess is CIHL shares are once more worth the 75p SC suggested. The downside remains bad debts like all banks in the covid environment. Belize needs to borrow money as tourists have not arrived in numbers this year and they need to repay the loan indirectly owed to CIHL.

[noirua] 12/11/2020 17:40

Investor0109 et al, It is best to await the wise words of his Lordship on this matter though I expect he will not say much other than congratulations. EK might proffer his views - worth waiting for.

[noirua] 12/11/2020 17:22

Belize election: Opposition win brings change after 12 years
12 November 2020 - 16.00GMT


After 12 years of being led by conservative Prime Minister Dean Barrow, the Central American nation of Belize will see a change of government after the general election was won by the opposition centre-left PUP party.

Johnny Briceño, a former deputy prime minister, will lead the country.

[investor0109] 12/11/2020 12:58

Noirua- grateful for your having explained. I'll keep an eye out for his posts regarding CIHL in future, in that case. Do you have a view on this morning's election result in relation to CIHL, out of interest?

[noirua] 12/11/2020 12:45

Investor0109, EK and family is one of the largest investors in CIHL after his Lordship of course by many a mile. Considered the best authority around on the company. So there you goes.

-----


Covid-19 reports are no longer low in Belize with 90 deaths. - as at 16 November 2020.


Population of Belize 415,000.
Population of United States = 332 million

75 deaths for Belize per capita compared with the United States = 60,000 compared to US actual deaths at 242,000.
Above Figures as reported on 12 November 2020.

[noirua] 12/11/2020 12:34

Evil Knieval at play and padding out his boots:

[investor0109] 12/11/2020 08:08

PUP election victory sends Dean Barrow packing. Great news for CIHL holders as in my opinion, as PUP government more likely to settle UHS debt.

[investor0109] 09/11/2020 15:46

Noirua- Are these articles related to CIHL? If not, perhaps best shared elsewhere. With that said, on to that which concerns CIHL. Elections in Belize this week might well shift the share price and holders of CIHL might well hope that a newly elected government of Belize will face its obligations head on and pay the UHS debt.