Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 24/9/2024 13:03

OneDayRodders, most won't be driving to Card Factory specially they would visit when convenient. Anyway in the case of online Card Factory are way cheaper than MoonPig so either is a better option.

[fft] 24/9/2024 12:50

Wonder if the UBS note out a few days ago factored in the headwinds and whether there forecasts for FY25 and FY26 will be altered ? Does anyone have access to the front page ?

[onedayrodders] 24/9/2024 12:41

bountyhunter24 Sep '24 - 09:39 - 6731 of 6747

Whilst a very few % will be able to hand deliver, if you are comparing to Moonpig, for many more it's a car journey to a CARD shop usually in Town or big Shopping Mall, so you have to factor petrol and parking cost and add that to your 59p card.

Result ... very little end price difference but less stress online.

all IMHO

[s34icknote] 24/9/2024 12:38

Was a tad disappointed they didn't see this coming !! Let's hope margins are increased on 2nd half !!

[bbonsall] 24/9/2024 12:25

PS Moonpig does not pay dividends either!

[bountyhunter] 24/9/2024 12:21

"As we move into the second half of the year and the important Christmas trading period, our expectations for the full year are unchanged."

"We are encouraged with continued online momentum and progress against our online strategy with revenue growth of +8.8% against HY24."

"We continue to see development in our UK and international partnerships including entry into the US market, as well as the multi-year renewal of our existing contract with Aldi, which includes rollout to the full UK estate, and advanced renewal discussions with The Reject Shop in Australia. In HY25 we have also seen increased Matalan revenue due to the impact of the full rollout to stores in the UK in FY24."

[bountyhunter] 24/9/2024 12:13

Post-period activity: Strategic progress in partnerships



· Multi-year agreement secured with Aldi to be the exclusive everyday greeting card supplier across the full UK and Republic of Ireland estate.

· Entry into the US market secured through a nationwide wholesale retail partnership which will roll out in time for Christmas.

· In advanced discussions to renew a multi-year partnership with The Reject Shop in Australia, including an extension to a full-service model and seasonal range supply.

· In September 2024 we completed the acquisition of Garlanna, a publisher and wholesaler of greetings cards, wrap and gift bags in the Republic of Ireland.

[bountyhunter] 24/9/2024 12:12

Revenue +5.9%
Cards very cheap vs competition. It's clear that they need to increase prices so that this feeds through to the bottom line, being way cheaper that the competition in any case I don't think customers would be deterred by even a 10% increase in prices which would make a huge difference to the business. Maybe that's what will happen anyway.

[bbonsall] 24/9/2024 11:14

Even if CF only manage a FY EPS of 10p and not the 15p predicted it is still heavily undervalued. It has been massively undervalued for a long time and an EPS of 15p should mean a share price of £2.70 to be inline with other members of the Specialist Retailer sector. So even an EPS of 10p should lead to a share price of £1.90 plus.
So this reaction to today’s results is on a par with normal market neurosis but not rational.
For example Moonpig EPS is 10p and its share price is more than £2

[its the oxman] 24/9/2024 10:54

Could be in the retail doldrums for a while here. Disappointing results and now a demanding h2 weighting will keep investors wary of this one.

[caveater] 24/9/2024 10:46

Do we know if there are any presentation planned by CF so as to elaborate on these new expansion plans and give an overview of what exactly CF is doing on these different continents?

[bbonsall] 24/9/2024 10:43

The US entry is through a countrywide wholesale/retail partnership. I take that to mean CF is the wholesaler supplying the retailers. I would think that means less risk for CF. The retailers might not sell what CF sells to them but that is not a problem for CF, only might mean no more demand from US retailers, but that is all.

[fft] 24/9/2024 10:40

USA. If I understand it correctly, they will not be opening stores. They will be supplying to a wholesaler who then distributes to the shops. The question is which shops the wholesaler distributes to ? Will they have big chains and up market department stores ?Margins are lower than either having their own shops or distributing directly to other peoples shops. However the risk is normally lower and the cost to CARD is significantly lower - they may want to pay for extra in store displays to make their product stand out, but that should be about it.I see it as testing the water. The contract with the distributor will surely contain no complete clauses for affected areas, but how long is the contract and what are the limits. However it may be better for CARD to stay attached to wholesalers if they plan to expand. Time will tell.

[bbonsall] 24/9/2024 10:32

Fevertree is doing well in the US.

[tomg23] 24/9/2024 10:32

They are not going in direct though, it's a retail partnership

[blackhorse23] 24/9/2024 10:31

Overvalued stocks

[tradertrev] 24/9/2024 10:29

North America - if they get it right it would be huge. Some formats have not translated well (Food retail for starters) - some have, though admittedly I can't give you examples off hand. Don't think there are many similarities between large scale food retail and greeting cards.

[bountyhunter] 24/9/2024 10:21

59p for a birthday card or special occasion card is dirt cheap nowadays imho. They could easily make their cheapest single cards 99p and still comfortably beat by far the majority of the competition for a single card.

[scobak] 24/9/2024 10:16

I am very sceptical about expansion into North America. This has proved troublesome for many British companies over the years. A good example was Tesco which found the proposition was different to home markets.
If they get this wrong it could be very costly.

[caveater] 24/9/2024 09:55

Most of my family are local so never post any cards. My local Card Factory shop is quite a large one in a busy indoor shopping centre. They are really expanding the gifts and toys and are always busy. Contrary to what's been said about the cheap price of cards, the shop I go into aren't full of cheap cards, you are hard pressed to find a 59p one now, some are 99p and most are 1.49, but many are 2.00 and above now too, and I have had the opposite concern that maybe they are going too high too quickly and maybe pricing themselves out of what's been their core market (maybe deliberately moving upmarketish) . There is a Clintons nearby that is never busy, but Asda & Sainsbury nearby sell cards and aren't that more expensive than most of Card Factory's.

[tradertrev] 24/9/2024 08:45

Re stamp costs, I would submit that most friends live relatively near with relatives perhaps more spread out. A quick drive around the neighbourhood to drop off Christmas cards is much cheaper than posting and much more personal than those awful pre-printed Moonpig cards.
I don't dispute the trend away from postage, but suggest it's a mild one that is easily managed.

[bountyhunter] 24/9/2024 08:39

That's more reason to buy cards in a physical shop and hand out personally where possible to avoid the postage which exceeds the card cost for most cards. It's MoonPig which will be losing business - to shop sales (and card factory on line which is much cheaper than MoonPig).