Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Carclo Plc LSE:CAR London Ordinary Share GB0001751915 ORD 5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.80 7.48% 11.50 10.00 13.00 13.00 9.00 10.00 1,131,277 16:35:24
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Chemicals 146.2 8.2 11.6 1.0 8

Carclo Share Discussion Threads

Showing 17701 to 17724 of 18200 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
09/7/2018
11:16
Well ... I sold out a lot before this situation arose, and have now bought back in. Whilst the drop in price in the past was not welcome, I believe that the company has good product and good potential which will be realised. As Consort believe so too, there are probably others out there weighing up the situation. At today's price, Carclo is a good long term buy, IMHO, and the bid premium - unlikely to go away - makes the buy-back compelling. Anything under 120p is a steal, I think. DYOR and respond accordingly.
andrewbaker
09/7/2018
10:27
a) both sides barely been round the shareholders yet b) try not to bid against yourself If CAR are betting they won't go hostile with an actual offer (I think they're wrong, eventually) then the phony war can last a while
queeny2
09/7/2018
08:34
I was certain that Consort Medical was going to bump their offer today if they wanted to maintain momentum in this process - the fact that they didn't surely makes it less likely that this deal will go through before the end of the 28 day period after which they will have to walk away for at least six months...
gordongekko4
07/7/2018
13:34
church - Aberforth I agree we're missing a holdings notice. They may think declaring their position through the OPD is sufficient to replace any holdings notice they were about to give? They declared 8.9m shares (12.2%) as of 4th June and declared 9.9m shares as of 2nd July. So they managed to pick up 1.0m shares between the 2 dates, perhaps largely on 15th June when 4.5m shares were traded. They would have gone through the 13% threshold at about 9.5m shares, so they were well over the threshold by 2nd July - I suppose it is possible that they had a buy order in for 1m shares, which was only completed on 29th June.
1gw
07/7/2018
13:16
So I've checked the notices again, and my revised view of declared activity this week is: Carclo Axxion holdings notice >5% on 2nd July, 5.05% declared Lakestreet 8.3 disclosing buying c. 288k shares on 2nd July Consort Aviva bought 170 shares, sold 280 shares Blackrock bought 431 shares That's out of: 1.7m shares traded on 2nd July in Carclo and about 0.7m in total since then (source: Yahoo! Finance); just a few thousand a day traded on Consort. In theory we ought to have seen an 8.3 from Axxion detailing what it actually traded on 2nd, which would have given us an idea of how much of the 1.7m is accounted for between Lakestreet and Axxion. Good to see that there was some buying of Carclo from institutions on 2nd July, but taking the week as a whole it still seems to me like very subdued activity for a live M&A situation.
1gw
06/7/2018
18:45
And the Henderson sale was back in March 2017, so my previous comments on them being a weak holder DON'T apply. That's also bullish!
thechurch333
06/7/2018
18:38
I think the Aberforth declarations may be incorrect or incomplete! On 6th June they reported they had increased their holding from 11.58% to 12.18%. On 3rd July they reported their holding was 13.57% and, as 1gw correctly points out, they stated no new dealings since the offer date. SO WHERE IS THE DECLARATION OF THEM GOING THROUGH 13%? This is a statutory declaration regardless of there being an offer. I don't see an RNS for this. Do you agree 1gw or has the heat got to me? In any case, the important point is that Aberforth have been adding in recent weeks, and that's bullish.
thechurch333
06/7/2018
17:24
Actually, my post 912 is incorrect. Axxion and Lakestreet gave holdings notices (TR-1) saying that they crossed thresholds on 2nd July. Axxion hasn't given an 8.3 for its purchases as far as I can see, but Lakestreet has, disclosing that it bought getting on for 300k shares on the first day, i.e. 2nd July. hTtps://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/other/13703905.html
1gw
06/7/2018
17:11
They may have added since the last publicly disclosed position, but all 3 of those companies reported their position as of 2nd July, the start of the "offer period". Section 3 which should record any dealings was blank. In the case of Aberforth, for example, they state "N/A- Opening Disclosure" under "purchases and sales". Link below. Under the 8.3 rules, they have to disclose dealings by 3:30pm the business day after the dealing. So by now we should have seen any dealings up to and including yesterday. hTtps://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/other/13704035.html
1gw
06/7/2018
16:49
I looked at the shareholder declarations against what I think is a reliable source for holdings data prior to the approach. As per my post of yesterday, I think Aberforth have added, Hendersons have reduced, Schroders added a tiny amount. Apologies if I've got this wrong.
thechurch333
06/7/2018
16:21
State of play at end of week 1. By my reckoning, at the end of the first week we have had opening position declarations from shareholders holding 76% of Consort's shares and 50% of Carclo's shares. But I haven't noticed a single change reported - i.e. no-one (apart from the intermediaries with their 8.5's) has owned up to buying or selling either offeror or offeree since the process started. Is that a liquidity issue, or a lack of interest issue or an insufficient information issue?
1gw
06/7/2018
14:36
That's another chunk for me. Getting more and more convinced. But many a slip... DYOR.
1gw
06/7/2018
14:23
Listen to church. :)
queeny2
06/7/2018
13:58
It would clearly be simpler for Carclo to conduct one auction than two, but both businesses are very saleable to trade buyers. Most likely would be a sale of one of the businesses(and possibly Aerospace) and a corporate takeover for the rest. They will obviously know who the likely buyers are and will hopefully have already been in contact. They should have a plan to defend a hostile takeover bid. I just hope they don't go down the route of "Consort are trying to buy the company on the cheap, but please stick with us because we can do a much better job". As somebody else rightly said, Carclo don't seem to have a lot of support from their own shareholders, given the low valuation/share price pre-bid. Consort have been planning this for a while. They have chosen their timing carefully and are several steps ahead. Carclo do need to catch up fast. Consort may go for the kill sooner rather than later as they will lose this advantage at some point.
thechurch333
06/7/2018
13:44
Carclo does have the option of arranging 2 auctions perhaps. Try to take LED off the table with Consort and set up a formal sale process for LED, while opening discussions with Consort to see if they can get to agreement on a recommended offer for CTP (and presumably aerospace). In parallel drum up interest in either a formal sale process on CTP, or try to persuade someone to come in with a competing offer if they end up announcing a recommended deal with Consort on CTP. They might have a bit of an issue with the pension fund in that scenario of course - having to split the liabilities between 2 companies.
1gw
06/7/2018
13:39
Consort may not be a darling of the PIs, but it has a pretty impressive shareprice chart from 2010 onwards and a good strong institutional base. Boring but profitable by the look of it. There doesn't seem to be much liquidity there either, hardly any trades going through - certainly not obvious that any of the existing Consort shareholders are playing the arb as yet. I agree Carclo needs to get an auction going to achieve the dreamier end of the price range. And the first deadline isn't so far away - 30th July (about 3 weeks) when Consort has to put up or shut up [edit: actually "to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for Carclo….or announce that it does not intend to make an offer for Carclo…"]. That doesn't leave a lot of time for a company starting from scratch to go through internal processes to get a bid approved. So I would have thought the winning way would be to try to get a credible stalking horse out in the open (if that isn't mixing metaphors) in the form of a firm bid from Consort by 30th July, which could then underpin an auction process should a competing offer come in. The big question for me is whether that is going to need a recommended deal - i.e. how confident do Carclo and their advisors feel that Consort will table a bid if it is not on a recommended basis? And if Carclo feel they need to go the recommended route, how high does that initial price have to be for them to feel they haven't sold shareholders short if a competing offer doesn't arrive? Because once they recommend the bid, it will be difficult to withdraw that recommendation if a competing offer doesn't arrive. And they will presumably be prevented from soliciting an offer from another company as well at that point. So they have to do the work between now and recommending an offer (if that's where they end up) so that if they get to a recommended offer, there is a reasonable chance of a counter-offer. It's not going to be a restful summer for the Carclo executive team.
1gw
06/7/2018
13:30
Church, that it's two businesses with zero overlap in any way is a potential problem for really getting an auction going. So much simpler without that.
queeny2
06/7/2018
13:26
Listen to church. He's good.
queeny2
06/7/2018
13:23
I note, with interest, that there is NO activity on the Consort thread (CSRT). Not sure what to make of that - it certainly is not a darling of any PIs!
heeley3
06/7/2018
13:19
There will be a lot of shared costs in the CTP business that Consort will be able to take out - distribution, sales team, central functions etc. It will also provide Consort with an infrastructure to enter new geographic markets - so significant revenue synergies also. It reminds me a bit of when Reckitts bought SSL - the headline multiple looked high, but the synergies were massive, enough to broadly double SSL's profits. The key to getting a good price, however, is to get an auction going. I'm sure there are other companies out there who would be able to extract similar synergies to Consort - they just need to be persuaded to get involved. If so, we could all be surprised how much this goes for!
thechurch333
06/7/2018
12:09
1g and church: so i did some crude very crude numbers. Debt £30 but pension fund deficit also £30m, being worked off at £2m a year extra contributions (Consort have identical situation in their pension fund) CTP sales £90 'Underlying' operating profit £6.7 (a poor year, prior was £8.7m) target margins, never attained, 10% LED sales £50 'Underlying' operating profit £6.4 it's a good business, not to be sniffed at, cagr over four years of sales 14% cagr of underlying profit 12% aerospace winding down, sales £6m, operating profit £750k aggregate sales £146m (central costs £3m, which would all/mostly vanish) If you put the whole shooting match on 1x sales you get to £146m EV, ignoring pension fund (can we can we can we that's a question) that's £116m equity, divide by 73m shares that's 158p. Every 0.25x extra sales gets you 0.25 x £146 = £36.5m = 50p on the share price. As far as I can find out, low tech medtech which is what CTP is, should go out at min 1.5x sales. I IMAGINE there should be a trade buyer of LED, nice margins, at around the same?? DYOR DYOmath
queeny2
06/7/2018
12:03
I added too
queeny2
06/7/2018
08:54
I've made up my mind and bought some more just now. Risk reward looks good to me. Thanks for the discussion.
1gw
06/7/2018
08:47
Reasonable thought, but not a significant concern. The combined entity will still be a small player in a fragmented market up against much larger customers and suppliers. I don’t think there is much direct product overlap. Worst case would be small specific product disposals, but not enough to derail any deal.
thechurch333
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