Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[davemac3] 11/1/2019 07:29

Not impressed!

[bookbroker] 11/1/2019 07:26

40p st open!

[pugugly] 11/1/2019 07:17

ALS - You beat me to it!! A right real snorter - Management incompetence of the first order - If the share price does not tank 20%+ on opening it certainly should do.



"Overall, given the significant challenges encountered in the LED Technologies Division, the Board now expects the Group results for the full year to be significantly below its previous expectations with the second half performance anticipated to be similar to that achieved in the first half. "

[1gw] 11/1/2019 07:15

Beggars belief.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 11/1/2019 07:11

Another profit warning, they should have sold up when they had the chance.

[overmars] 11/1/2019 07:04

The shambles continues

[1gw] 10/1/2019 15:13

You don't think 1 or 2 of Carclo's major shareholders might suggest to Consort that they would encourage (if not instruct) the Carclo board to look more favourably at an offer pitched around the level of Consort's original 116p (non-binding) proposal?

[queeny2] 10/1/2019 14:32

They will not see fit.

[1gw] 10/1/2019 09:57

Well the 6 months will be up on 7th Feb I think, so they will be free to try again with Carclo then should they see fit.

[9degrees] 05/12/2018 13:59

Consort still looking for strategic aquistions

[rivaldo] 28/11/2018 11:24

CAR usually issue a trading update in January (last year 15th January), so there's only just over 6 weeks until then.

CAR are a £150m turnover group these days (against a £59m m/cap), so actually fairly sizeable.

Edison's true value is 147p per share, so they've already discounted that to arrive at a current fair value of 125p-133p.

With 11.3p EPS forecast this year, rising to 12.5p EPS next year, there's lots of upside assuming the H1 outlook is delivered:

"The Board anticipates that the Group will trade in line with its expectations for the full year, and that it remains on track to grow substantially over the medium term."

If the January update delivers as anticipated, then we may get quite a decent re-rating back to 100p and perhaps 120p.

[queeny2] 22/11/2018 14:13

So the question is what discount to a sum of the parts should a tiny subscale conglomerate trade at, if you accept Edison's c. 130p. 25% puts it at 100p which isn't enough upside really to want to own it, esp when contingent on gaining ground in H2.File under watch for six months.

[rivaldo] 21/11/2018 15:08

RNS - Schroders have increased their holding to above 12%.

They now have 8.89m shares, so they've bought around another 730,000 shares.....

[rivaldo] 20/11/2018 12:32

New Edison research note:



They essentially retain their prior forecasts, being 11.3p EPS this year (previously 11.4p) rising to 12.5p EPS next year.

Their valuation/price target drops in line with sector average multiples to 125p-133p.

There's still some reliance on the various delayed programmes for H2, but management seem confident that these have already now begun. It would be pretty naive to guide analysts otherwise if this were not the case.

Edison conclude:

"H219 recovery to support 21% full-year PBT growth

Looking forward, management is confident of a recovery in H219 because the
delayed medical programmes have now commenced production and the inefficiencies resulting from multiple production start-ups in the LED division have been resolved. There are signs too that the initiatives to improve CTP margins are gaining traction. We leave our group forecasts broadly unchanged after transferring £0.2m FY19 EBIT from CTP to Aerospace to reflect first-half underperformance in the former and outperformance in the latter and raising FY19 interest by £0.1m.

Valuation: Trading at a discount to peers

We use a P/E-based, sum-of-the-parts methodology with three sets of sample
peers drawn from the medical device manufacturing (P/E of 13.8x), automotive
(mean P/E of 10.6x) and aerospace (mean P/E 19.7x) sectors to reflect the
diversity of Carclo’s operations. This gives an indicative valuation range of 125-
133p (previously 144-153p). Newsflow demonstrating that management initiatives
are driving margin improvement should be supportive of the valuation helping to
close the valuation gap."

[overmars] 18/11/2018 00:25

Revenue down
Costs up
Enough is enough

[yump] 13/11/2018 11:25

If you've got spare cash to invest there's a lot of other companies floated. I keep reminding myself of that every time I think I've cleverly spotted the bottom in some stock that has disappointed a lot.

[owenski] 13/11/2018 10:22

Would be better if they had a div to rest on whilst waiting, but they aint, and the problems here SP,wise, haven't changed since they axed the divi.

Cant beat a divi to show real cash flowing back to investors.

[poikka] 13/11/2018 10:18

PUGUGLY's right, House Broker PH have been bigging CAR about as long as Rivaldo - a few years now.

[bigtbigt] 13/11/2018 10:11

No major positives in the report

And we've broken through the 80p barrier, as I predicted/feared we would.

...all of which suggests a big downside risk in near term, as no reason for a share price rise to happen.

[pugugly] 13/11/2018 09:42

Ricaldo - House broker - Always looks on the sunny side if they want to keep their appointment! Sorry have been stuffed by PH too often to take much notice of their sunny projections.

[rivaldo] 13/11/2018 09:31

Peel Hunt retain their Buy and 130p target:

[poikka] 13/11/2018 08:58

Not invested.

Same old, same old. Note that they inserted this little rider.

"As is normal within the Group's business, the achievement of its anticipated performance for the full year is dependent on key customers, particularly in Wipac, awarding new programmes in line with planned timescales in the second half."


Maybe one day they'll achieve their goal, but the best bet would be for some enlightened CEO to flog the LED (hate the sodden things, anyway) and big up on TP. Keep the Aerospace as it provides a spot of sorely needed cashflow - all those tooling programmes need cash.


No point to but CAR, though, as there are better bets around.

[pugugly] 13/11/2018 08:48

The problem is we have been promised 2nd half groth for more years than I can remember BUT very rarely met -
However some brave sole probably II bidding 77p for up to 82K shares on L2. Not their money !!
We also have to consider the BREXIT implications No mention that I can see -