Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[rhomboid] 28/2/2019 11:55

According to the latest accounts at companies house for March 18 CTP generated an operating profit of 634k on t’over of £23m

[baner] 28/2/2019 10:00

arthur lame

thanks for your feedback. i believe CTP generate £10m+ of ebidta and has excellent growth prospects. on that basis i assume an ebidta multiple of 8-10 is clearly achievable - 4-5 seems far too low to me.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 28/2/2019 09:27

baner

I agree that a break up of the company is the best option and it's interesting that the shares have come to the attention of activists and trade buyers, but I think your estimate of the value of the CTP division is a bit on the high side. I would have thought £40-55m is more likely.

[baner] 28/2/2019 09:22

elsa/gekko

i agree re your views on a potential fund raising - however, this assume the BOD does not work on other options - one very obvious one being a sale of the CTP division. last year there was a (tentative) bid for the whole of Carclo and there should be no doubt there are a great number of potential predators looking at the CTP unit today. realistically this could fetch £75-90m, wiping out all debt and leaving Carclo with £50m of free cash, the profitable LED business and the aerospace cable unit. if shareholders were presented this alternative vs the idea of a £10-15m placing, i guess the answer is obvious.

[escapetohome] 27/2/2019 19:53

Ive noted the recent institution stake building activity, noted the concerns raised on this bb, and taken a very measured indeed “”gamble”” on this stock today, buying a few thousand shares @ just over 44p.

[gordongekko4] 27/2/2019 16:00

Agree with Elsa, Carclo will need to raise new equity of at least GBP 10-15 Million. The debt is due March 2020 and auditors will not sign off on annual accounts unless the maturity of the debt is extended at least 4 months. Banks however will only extend maturity if new equity is injected!

[elsa7878] 27/2/2019 13:54

Equity £32 million
Debt £37 million
Pension deficit £25 million

Would love to know what these equity buyers see. Looks like a train wreck to me...

Cashflow is negative, so despite announcing profits they are bleeding cash (£5 million last year).

I would think at the least they need an equity raise of £10-15 million.

[queeny2] 26/2/2019 20:02

Thanks 1gw

[1gw] 26/2/2019 19:51

Lakestreet appear to me to be giving holdings notices as other individuals or companies join their "concert party".

Today's notice reports that the % controlled by the concert party has increased from 5.3% (declared on 15th Feb) to 6.1% as of 22nd Feb.

Within the concert party the holding of Lakestreet Capital Partners AG has increased slightly from 2.55% to 2.62%.

"Avolon Family Office AG" has joined the concert party.

The fact that they are declaring and apparently building a concert party suggests to me that they have something in mind here. i.e. the various members of the concert party are presumably intending to act together when it comes to voting on something. My hope is that they are trying to promote, or influence the outcome of, a sale of part or all of the company.

But I don't know enough about Lakestreet and the way it operates to know if this is actually just "standard" behaviour (e.g. they might recommend investments to their clients and if their clients act on the recommendation the voting rights are controlled jointly, as a result of which Lakestreet feels the need to declare a concert party).

[elsa7878] 26/2/2019 09:41

No - bought 6%. Accounts for the all the volume the other day. Still see little value in this but others clearly do....

[queeny2] 26/2/2019 08:37

I read Lakestreet as selling down but may have misread

[ali47fish] 26/2/2019 07:20

Lakestreet Capital Partners invests 6pc

[1gw] 22/2/2019 15:48

Duroc not messing around here.

[elsa7878] 21/2/2019 18:19

Interesting volume today. No interest but lots of shares changing hands...will keep an eye on it.

[pugugly] 19/2/2019 16:58

Possibly -Debt-pension deficit- failure to deliver - possible loss of contracts due to delivery failure and/or massive compensation claims - That is why.

[baner] 19/2/2019 16:51

pugugly

then the whole of UK could be in trouble - or the opposite. who knows? why should there be a fire sale in Carclo - ridiculous idea!?

[pugugly] 19/2/2019 16:46

If no deal BREXIT possibility that CAR could be in really deep trouble - Wh knows? What value if any in a fire sale?

[1gw] 19/2/2019 12:33

A new COO and a new name in the Lakestreet concert party to go with their increased holding.

I suspect there are some goings-on behind the scenes.

[queeny2] 14/2/2019 16:49

Thanks for those links.

[andrewbaker] 14/2/2019 15:26

I was - and may still be - going to sell the rest of my holding in Carclo, and walk away: but Duroc's interest has caused me to think. The price is still going down, but then other long/longer term holders have been selling out, which may have and be causing it. And Consort Medical may yet bid again. It's pretty sure that the existing management at Carclo are rubbish, to put it both mildly and politely, yet even they surely couldn't turn down another decent bid (and almost any price above the current one right now would look decent to a lot of people, me included), and if they tried to there would likely be an investor revolt. And the director selling on the same day Duroc took their interest: now that's also of interest. Think I'll hang in for a tad longer, as surely the price can't tank any more (and I'm hoping that's not famous last words, lol).

[1gw] 06/2/2019 19:33

Is it a coincidence that Consort's 6 month lockout ends tomorrow as their "No intention to bid" statement was released on 7th August?

[1gw] 06/2/2019 19:24

What chance a Consort - Duroc auction, facilitated somehow by Lakestreet?

[1gw] 06/2/2019 19:21

Looks vaguely interesting. Duroc putting out a press release for their acquisition of a 7% stake. And a press release also dated today announcing the arrival (as of 7th January) of a new Corporate Development Director to focus on M&A activities.

Press release perhaps reads rather too much like a trader's justification of a punt, but the group looks like a bona fide acquirer of businesses "Duroc acquires, develops and manages industrial and B2B-trading companies. "

Was this the Swedish version of a dawn raid, or are they dipping their toe in with a view to learning more about the potential before moving further?

[pugugly] 06/2/2019 15:20

I remember selling down back in 2012 for over £4 per share - Only way that might come about now is with a consolidation (imo) Carey street probably more likely -

[andrewbaker] 06/2/2019 15:19

As I said last month, I'm selling: and I've just sold a chunk. The rest will follow soon if no upturn in price within the next while.