Carclo Share Discussion Threads

[imjustdandy] 13/11/2018 07:56

Think we've hit the bottom at last. Strong second half and future growth curve back on track. Back over £1 again v soon.

[rivaldo] 13/11/2018 07:37

The interims read pretty well overall given the prior warning re production delays.

CAR still made 3.7p EPS in an under-performing H1, and H2 looks good with the core divisions now ramping up production on what had been delayed production programmes.

It's particularly good to see Wipac winning contracts for two mid-volume electric vehicles.

Retaining the Aerospace division now looks like a good decision given its excellent performance :o))

H2 results are still slightly dependent on Wipac and programme timings as usual, but CAR are happy to reiterate full year expectations - which stand at 11.4p EPS per Edison - and "substantial" medium-term growth.

Even if CAR only repeat H1 performance in H2 with a small improvement, then they're on track for say 8p EPS at minimum.

[imjustdandy] 13/11/2018 07:33

I think we will rise from here. Results not as bad as feared and second half looks v strong

[queeny2] 13/11/2018 07:23

First take: grey. Or mud coloured.For bulls: grow substantially in medium term. That's it.For bears: almost every £ and % detail in there! Crowned by another £3m regulatory hit in pension fundFor students of CAR: remind me which year these interims are from?For third parties the questions are: A) do I think the new chairman FD and non exec from Cape will make a real positive difference? That is needed. B) do I like the two sectors and their positioning in them?Price prediction: meh to down a little but meh really

[imjustdandy] 13/11/2018 07:09

Reads very well. "Group to grow substantially in second half"

[dontay] 12/11/2018 21:45

Should read.. signed up!

[dontay] 12/11/2018 21:44

A long promised transformational LED contract igneous up for a major higher volume auto manufacturer could do the trick. But if the interims go as they historically do... we'll probably get yet another profit warning ?

[imjustdandy] 12/11/2018 19:59

Should be fun tomorrow. Pick your range - anywhere between 60p and £1.30

[1gw] 11/11/2018 17:54

So expectations at absolute rock bottom for Tuesday's interims then. 2nd half weighting, well-positioned for the future, more jam tomorrow... but nothing concrete to justify their summary rejection of the 116p/share offer initially made by Consort:

"The Board of Carclo (the "Board") discussed the Proposal, together with its advisers, and concluded that the Proposal in no way reflected the fundamental value of the Company. Consequently, the Board was unanimous in rejecting this opportunistic approach on 01 June 2018."

Oh for a rabbit from the hat, such as the intention to review the structure of the group, including possible disposal options, with a view to accelerating delivery of shareholder value.

[beeezzz] 08/11/2018 21:35

Looks like management are dithering and have lost there way, concentrating on high margin products that don't rely on third party products...Medical comes to mind

[meijiman] 08/11/2018 15:23

with this deadleg management anything is possible.............

[bigtbigt] 08/11/2018 15:07

When that 80p floor gives way, I dread to imagine where the next level down might be

[poikka] 13/10/2018 11:12

Peel Hunt has been wrong with their Carclo forecasts for more years than I can recall - probably for ever, lol.

Think for yourselves, boys and girls. Look at the never-ending tooling costs. Look at the missed expectations. Look at the slump in car sales - China down some 12%.


They should've flogged off LED, cleared debt and bigged-up on TP. Aerospace is ok because it gives them some cash-flow.


Takeover hopes only.

[overmars] 13/10/2018 01:48

Thanks for the comment.

Makes sense but I think that a company that has been so poorly managed needs to over communicate.

I don't care what the broker is telling them - it is nonsense to relate comments to their internal expectations and not give any specifics.

If the yardstick is Peel Hunt's forecasts - they could at as minimum tell investors what Peel Hunt is forecasting?

[1gw] 12/10/2018 17:20

Overmars - I think this "management expectations" is something forced on them by their advisors. I went to another company's AGM recently and had asked them specifically, ahead of the meeting, if they could explain the background to a TU they had put out which talked about being significantly ahead of their expectations - then when the full year results came out they actually showed flat (or fractionally declining) YOY 2H revenues. So they came prepared and what they said was that their advisors (the Nomad) said they needed to inform the market if they expected any material metric to be more than a certain % (maybe 10%?) away from what the brokers' reports were forecasting - in the case of this company it was fairly straightforward as there was really only one broker covering it. But the advisor also said they shouldn't really say "market expectations" - presumably because someone litigious could dispute what those were. So they ended up having to say "management expectations".

I think this is perhaps quite common among smaller companies. They work closely with an advisor/broker and while not formally "guiding" the broker effectively they provide sufficient information to allow the broker to come up with reasonable forward estimates (and in some cases I suspect they rely on the broker to come up with these estimates because they don't have a great internal capability to do so).

So coming back to Carclo and today's "warning", I think I would interpret it as saying that they don't think they are going to meet the house broker (Peel Hunt) expectations for 1H. Has Peel Hunt published a 1H/2H split does anyone know?

Does anyone have a different view?

[overmars] 12/10/2018 16:56

Very poorly worded statement.

Performance is measured relative to board’s expectations.

They need to be specific about their expectations. How are investors supposed to know what those expectations are?

[pj84] 12/10/2018 14:03

If management are correct that the loss of sales in the first half is recovered in the 2nd half then based on the Edison update it looks like its worth continuing to hold.

[nick rubens] 12/10/2018 10:42

Thanks Rivaldo, and you make a good point that at the Interims they will have two months second half trading to report on, which is probably what I'll hang on for before deciding what to do here.

[gleach23] 12/10/2018 10:37

Extract from Trading Update Sept 17Technical Plastics has had a challenging start to the financial year with some key new programmes delayed into the second half and some operational challenges, which have now been largely resolved.I think there's an echo in here...

[rivaldo] 12/10/2018 10:06

Cheers owenski, appreciated. Nor do I :o))

I simply see the two core divisions as very good businesses, with high recurring income and good visibility going forward once new medical and auto programmes are won and implemented. And with potential for very large growth and global expansion.

Old management screwed things up. New management have at least re-focused the company on those core divisions, but have either made mistakes/been subject to repeated programme timing fluctuations (depending on your point of view!) which have stymied progress to date.

After today yet again we'll have to wait and see for a while. However, today's news exudes positivity going forward, so I'll hold (once again!) in the belief that the core value is far in excess of the current share price.

[owenski] 12/10/2018 09:21

You're a pretty shrewd guy Rivaldo, I've never understood why you stick with this one.

[rivaldo] 12/10/2018 09:18

Peel Hunt have reiterated their Buy and 130p price target today:



Nick Rubens, N+1 Singer and Edison both have around the same forecasts, at 11.4p EPS this year and 12.4p/12.5p EPS next year.

Assuming the interims in November reiterate the confidence in full year expectations - being two months into H2 at that stage - then the current price will look very cheap.

Even if full year EPS turns out at say 9p-10p EPS, at 78p the downside shouldn't be too bad compared to some of the catastrophes seen recently :o))

[meijiman] 12/10/2018 09:04

Incompetent management. Plus the guy who cashed in his chips on the massive spike-he clearly knew it would amount to nothing. Bunch of monkeys sums it up.

[poikka] 12/10/2018 08:36

Been in and out of this dawg so many times, I'm getting sore.

Fact - this bunch of monkeys have been misleading investors (intentionally, or not) for over a decade. Those in any doubt, check back to their statements - same old stuff (like today's) right from when they were telling us about the prospects for CIT.


Short term traders only, long term it's a massive gamble - yes, a gamble. Takeover possibilities are there in that the company would be split, but don't bet the house.