Capital & Regional Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 09/5/2019 15:35

RNS today:
" that the maximum combined incentive award potential in any year (300% of salary) will be adjusted downwards to reflect the year on year reduction in the profit outturn (if any) or if the shareholder return over the same period has been negative."

Well that's OK then.

[markyjacob123] 07/5/2019 08:12

Very volatile!

[swindon41] 12/4/2019 11:41

For balance....... DEB-effect isn't just on rentals, it's service charges too under threat, and it's the rolling impact on other stores which will see footfall suffer and in turn they will play hard ball on rental reviews and renegotiations as frankly city centre 'sub prime' Malls like CAL's in luton are where only the mediocre stores want to be.....yep, the yield at 14% looks very tempting, but how sustainable? It looked tempting when the share price was 35p and then more tempting at 30p, but like clothes out of fashion, it may get a whole lot cheaper yet. Upwards-only rent reviews are now dead, high street shopping as we know it is dying and has to reinvent itself, the old business model of marginal operators like CAL is dead. Smell the coffee.

[belgraviaboy] 09/4/2019 13:19

For balance - whilst the largest tenant (of over 400), DEB totals 5.72% of the CAL rent roll.

[swindon41] 09/4/2019 12:41

Going cheap like DEB?

Gutted for staff, suppliers & creditors .......Debenham's landlords and equity holders are going to get a hit here..equity wiped out, bond holders call the shots. Admistrators have no choice but to demand immediate rental cuts across CAL portfolio. Make no mistake , if Mike Ashley then buys the shell from the administrators, CAL are stuffed regarding ANY existing rental,assumptions. High street retail on its knees, top shop next? Can't see how CAL are going to fill those empty stores - M&S , DEB huge shop,floor space going to take a miracle to fill it. Rentals - and then cash flow, and then divi's - are all heading one way.
Looks cheap at 25p but won't if it's 15p in 6 months time. People buying DEB at 5p thought it a bargain. DYOR?

[swindon41] 22/3/2019 11:49

More bad news today from Debenhams.....I feel for their staff.

This will impact on CAL make no mistake. Mike Ashley will take control, close stores, make it even more cheap and cheerful....AND play hard ball on rental forgiveness and rent reductions.

For CAL, th challenge is how can you fill the space vacated by M&S and now Debenhams with more "low rent community space" and not take a further big hit on rentals and cash flow? That yield looking a little more shaky. All imho. DYOR?

[swindon41] 21/3/2019 12:01

Thanks for the investment lesson Marky.....I know who to turn to for advice in future. Net Debt acc to the annual report is increasing - by 2%. Perhaps you could advise CAL that their report isn't factually correct

The fact that peers are also struggling kinda makes my point don't you think? Avoid the sector or select those that stand out for good reasons and that work WITH local towns & communities not AGAINST them. CAL appears hellbent on driving the people of Luton against them and ultimately that will back fire as footfall already shows and long term sentiment is driven down. This imoakcts on rental demand, alongside the huge rental space about to be given up by M&S - and in all probability Debenhams.

Institutions are watching very carefully how CAL handles the next retail assault after Brexit.

By the way, ask CAL about rent holidays and other incentives needed to keep up rent premiums that don't need to be declared in the accounts but DO impact on the life blood of CAL - cash flow. Also take a careful look at rent arrears and bad debts - these will be coming under increasing pressure but may not Be fully provided for - it's an accountants' art on how to massage the books for investors but doesn't represent the actuality of bloodshed on retail high streets. I should ask CAL what their accounting policy is on this.

Add all these together alongside a long drawn out legal battle & QC costs - and a massive distraction of management time - that CAL seem set on as they are running scared of the newly approved Newlands mixed development in Luton, and no wonder the stock price is falling to an all time low!
It's your money, and good luck if you choose to invest your savings in CAL when you can achieve dividends on far safer more reputable stock elsewhere? I know where my hard earned is going and it ain't in the high street!

[markyjacob123] 15/3/2019 11:26

Wow swindon42 - clearly the dividend cut has made you very angry.

I will address your points as they are very uneducated and you are clearly oblivious to the retail turmoil out there and the impact it is having on shopping centre landlords like C&R (and Intu, and Hammerson)

- The CEO only joined a year and a bit ago. He did not buy these assets, he inherited them. Key point.
- Losses are not deepening. In fact, profit was up 4.8%. The losses you maybe warbling on about are due to a 11% decline in asset values, which has been driven by poor sentiment to real property by property valuers, NOT unique to C&R but happening across the board at retail property companies
- Debt is not increasing. Leverage is increasing (the loan to value). As the Value part of the equation is decreasing, the LTV rises. Funny that!
- The covenants are set at 70% (read the annual report!) so the company is fine there
- Net rental income is actually up, i.e. they grew the rents
- The dividend was cut as they say to save capital to invest in the "tired and dreadful malls" as you call them. So you criticise the fact the malls are rubbish, but you do not want them to invest in them though (by cutting the div)? Again, you're talking gibberish
- The new dividend is still 8.5% yield, hardly hard times

There is no doubt the company is suffering from tough retail markets, but that is no surprise if you read any news source! I would suggest you read things properly before posting drivel up.

[swindon41] 14/3/2019 13:56

Results - in short worrying. Oh dear, Laughable Larry the CEO who seems to attract self-inflicted mistakes - ask the Board of 2020 inc his recent goof that alleged they have been trying to poach 3 of his tenants in Luton - has just dropped another clanger.....however hard he tries to get his new CFO ( an inside appointment after a failed external recruitment exercise) to window dress this, these results are v worrying if you ar long: Losses deepening, NAV falling, and debt increasing. How long before covenants breached Larry?
And it's going to get worse - Luton BC this week approved a large out of town mixed use development just 3 miles from CAL's tired & dreadful Mall. CAL campaigned long and hard against this citing it would damage irreparably the Mall and town centre. You make your own mind up. Either way it's getting worse which is why Loopy Larry is going to Judicial Review at a cost of millions in expert legal fees. Why? Because the guy is on a testosterone trip & can't swallow being beaten?

But don't worry about your investment folks, at least the dividend is safe and sound as some of you have been spouting. Oh no, hang on a minute............

By the way, my short is doing just fine. This is heading one way, just like high street retail. You decide which way - up or down?

[redhill9] 14/3/2019 09:56

FY divi of 2.42p gives yield of around 8.5% on current share price of just over 28p. The intention is to maintain dividends at this level (see final sentence of dividend statement below) but there must be risk in achieving that. I've sold this morning at 29.75p and may return if prospective yield goes into double figures again.

Extract from RNS:

Dividend

The Board is recommending a final dividend of 0.60 pence per share taking the full year dividend to 2.42 pence per share. This represents a decrease of 33.5 per cent over the 2017 full year dividend of 3.64 per share.

The Company has been actively exploring financing options to underpin its Capex plans. The Board has concluded that adjusting the dividend and agreeing a new Capex facility for the Hemel Hempstead loan to support the Cinema development along with increased headroom on the rebased Revolving Credit Facility is the best option for the company at this point in time given current uncertainties in occupational and investment markets. The cash preserved will assist in mitigating leverage and maintain investment in the Company's capital expenditure initiatives, which in the longer-term are expected to support earnings growth.

The proposed dividend, together with the interim dividend paid in October 2018, substantially fulfils the Group's UK REIT obligations for the 2018 Financial Year. Dividends for the short to medium-term are expected to be set at around the same level (2.42 pence per share per annum), subject to material retailer administrations and the Board's intention to meet its minimum REIT distribution requirements.

[belgraviaboy] 14/3/2019 07:34

Dividend slashed

[2wild] 13/3/2019 16:25

Toped up at 31.12p today. Results out tomorrow. Expect final div to be similar to intrim at 1.82p as a fully covered PID, which equates to 11.7% yield.

[eggbaconandbubble] 07/2/2019 11:39

At 13% yield these are tempting BUT RETAIL INDUSTRY!!!......Someone please convince me. Thanks.

[winsome] 25/1/2019 14:35

Am I missing something? Why would the dividend be cut? Occupancy is up and footfall is up, business is robust and 5 months ago management committed to increasing the dividend in 2019 despite the recent CVAs.

[mattboxy] 24/1/2019 19:46

Yes I agree the dividend is going to be interesting I can't see it being fully maintained but I still think it will be high single digit %The rest of the rns seemed ok to me too but the market is the market!

[redhill9] 24/1/2019 10:10

mattboxy, maybe but it depends if you believe the NAV won't fall further.

When comparing NAV to share price it's worth remembering the NAV is meant to be current whereas the share price is looking ahead.

Having said that, I have to agree the discount does look excessive even allowing for caution. The key point will be how the dividend holds up - prospective yield at current share price is over 13.5% (edited for today's sp) so something has to give, either the dividend falls or share price increases.

[belgraviaboy] 24/1/2019 08:03

Could be seen to be prudent writing down at this stage?

Shareprice unmoved (at present).

[mattboxy] 24/1/2019 07:55

NAV now around 60p per share vs 66p in June 201810% NAV write down vs 50 % share price fall !I'd say there's value to be had in these

[tiltonboy] 24/1/2019 07:39

Big NAV write-down this morning.

[belgraviaboy] 19/1/2019 09:11

I bought a very small pilot position yesterday

[mattboxy] 19/1/2019 08:39

I get the feeling someone is short

[swindon41] 19/1/2019 07:03

Ewith M&S closing their store in the Mall, Luton I wonder what impact on cash flow there? Interesting to see who gets lined up to take their space ....

[belgraviaboy] 18/1/2019 14:42

Decent move today - was down to the reassuring noises being made in the TRY factsheet?

[swindon41] 02/1/2019 12:33

Nice price action today - it's going down! Going to get a whole lot cheaper yet IMHO.
Was in their flag ship Mall in Luton over Christmas & New Year.....footfall isn't there from what I can see on the ground, sales in the likes of Debenhams, Top Shop , Marks & Spencer continue falling.....CAL's response is to fill their empty shop,space with bucket shop discount stores at much reduced rentals/free rental on sign up....New Year's day the place was deserted, like a ghost town. Their divi looks attractive,on paper but I can't see it being maintained as they will be draining cash. AND they are about to embark on a long drawn out legal action in Luton which will provide a nice little earner for top London QC's but at what cost to their cash flow?
This is heading to below 15p IMHO at which point they will try and flog off assets to raise cash - perhaps Luton BC might take the dreadful Mall off their hands?
I will continue to watch and may buy as a punt when it slips below 15p. DYOR and don't forget the huge debt pile and retail isn't looking good for 2019. Happy New Year