Capital & Regional Share Discussion Threads

[2wild] 19/12/2019 09:33

joed - your calc implies the new shares are being issued at 0p. The pro-forma NAV is about 44p, which i further reduced by 10% to 40p due to continued poor sentiment in the retail sector.

[joedjoed] 18/12/2019 23:20

If my previous post is right what this means is that discount to NAV at current 24 share price is 32.7%.
The aim of the capital raising is to payoff debts where there is least headroom and leave some capital over for the investment necessary to release value. Per the interims presentation this involves retail to office or residential conversion. Which sounds lucrative to me.

[joedjoed] 18/12/2019 22:53

'@2wild. Am I missing something: Per the interims as of end Jun 2019 the NAV per share was 51p. As I understand it through the tender / new issue process the number of shares will rise from 727 389 to 1 038 840. So NAV per share will be 0.7 * 51p ie 35p assuming no further deterioration

[2wild] 18/12/2019 14:33

I tendered 37.5% of my holding and sold the rest a couple of weeks later at 27.1p. Thought i made a mistake when they went to 30p. However brought back the lot at just over 24p today. Estimate NAV down to about 40p by Dec 19 year end and 2p annual div gives an 8.3% yield, 40% discount to NAV and low LTV.

[gary1966] 16/12/2019 11:00

Just under 8% of additional tendering being met.

[spectoacc] 07/11/2019 13:48

Offer document published. All the dates are on there, too many to cut & paste!

[spectoacc] 06/11/2019 08:35

INTU talking a good game this morning, but the 9% fall in LFL has sent it to new all-time lows.

CAL holders had better hope that offer comes soon..

[baddeal] 04/11/2019 17:04

Does anyone know the date when the part offer will be confirmed?

[spectoacc] 27/10/2019 07:46

@Gary1966 - no prob, had to look it up myself ;)

I guess could argue that CAL are moving away from retail and more towards leisure, all within the original shopping centres.

[gary1966] 26/10/2019 22:12

Specto,

That is why I shouldn’t post at this time of night!! Apologies I am getting my prop co’s confused.

[topvest] 26/10/2019 15:40

SnoZone is the only non-shopping centre operational asset I believe.

[spectoacc] 26/10/2019 12:16

@Gary1966 - what do CAL have that isn't shopping centres?



Correct me if I'm wrong, but shopping centres aren't a "fraction" according to that - they're nearly all.

Also - look at the NAV write-down last time. If that's the last of it, then fine, but seems highly unlikely. There's a heck of a lot still to work through in physical retail IMO.

[gary1966] 25/10/2019 21:52

But what % of the overall portfolio are shopping centres and retail now? There may be more writedowns to come but it is only on a fraction of the overall portfolio and so can’t be extrapolated across the entire portfolio. Sales so far aren’t occurring at large discounts to NAV. CAL’s footfall figures have consistently outperformed the wider market.

[spectoacc] 25/10/2019 14:09

Occupancy (& income) have held up pretty well, considering what valuations have been doing, and if it's the bottom then hooray for CAL.

But shopping centres at one of the big REITs were marked down 29% in a year this year, there's been double-digit drops in retail valuations across the board, eg -6.7% in a single quarter at one of the smaller REITs I like (with no drop in income), & I can only see that continuing.

Problem with owning centres is that if/when you lose your anchor - be in TopShop, Debenhams, M&S, whoever - you start a downward spiral, in both footfall and rents.

But I certainly agree that CAL's immediate and imminent demise has been headed off thanks to Growthpoint.

[gary1966] 25/10/2019 13:57

Depends if you saw a further 25% decline in NAV or not. With a falling LTV as a result of this injection and disposals, as well as a rapidly reducing exposure to retail and consistently high occupancy rates, I personally don't see it falling anywhere near that much.

[spectoacc] 25/10/2019 13:43

IC makes an interesting point that had passed me by - the Growthpoint deal, when all done, will reduce NAV to 44p. Considering that NAV is falling fast (with a way to go IMO), makes the 33p offer look even better for shareholders.

[swindon41] 22/10/2019 13:23

Congratulations to those loading up when share price in teens.......didn't myself because of sentiment against them and M'ment esp a CEO who seems hellbent on personal ego battles eg against the people and community of Luton and now the local Council where he's taking recent planning decision to Judicial Review.....this will cause damage to local services because it will cost the council many hundreds of thousands of pounds....all now probably irrelevant to the short term prospects for the market cap and sp, as this offer underpins a share price of about 25p, but probably little upside from here on in as wider macro prospects look dreadful imho. GLA wether you are long or not

[spectoacc] 21/10/2019 20:09

Posts 181, 189 - keep up, Hugepants :)

[hugepants] 21/10/2019 18:29

Some call you made on this Spec! Still think its going to zero?

[spectoacc] 19/10/2019 12:26

Indeed. The first one seems to be the worst, for being permanent. Going to take a long time to work through.

[topvest] 18/10/2019 18:42

Trouble is retail shopping has two headwinds to contend with:
1. Technological change, in itself a killer; and
2. A high chance of a global recession in the next year or two.

[spectoacc] 18/10/2019 14:31

I'm a fan of NRR.

Arguably Growthpoint are doing well to gain control for what - an average of about 28p? Assuming they can fund the debt overhangs, which they no doubt can.

D4E was the alternative IMO.

Retail reminds me of Bill Gates' maxim about technology - "Overestimate the next two years, underestimate the next ten".

Been seeing a few savage NAV markdowns on retail - c.30% on shopping centres in a half year, c.6% on retail on a quarter. Agree there's plenty more pain to come, but hopefully some winners along the way too.

Suspect people underestimate how connected retail stuff is - lose your High St M&S, lose a vast amount of footfall for everyone else.

[pejaten] 18/10/2019 14:15

In the offer RNS they mention that a 1p dividend will be paid before the offer becomes effective

[tiltonboy] 18/10/2019 13:56

Specto, just a poor PA position after meeting the manager a year or so ago. Bought a few more at 20p to give me an average of 40p.

I followed your logic, but never felt it was as bad as you made it out to be. Clearly Growthpoint thought there was value there. I made a nice turn in NRR, so my net position over two punts is a small negative.

[topvest] 18/10/2019 13:35

For what its worth, I think retail shopping centres have a load more CVAs and administrations around the corner. When these assets are purchased with debt and LTV is not below 20%, total wipe-out is around the corner. The board have done very well to secure this deal. Remember though that CAL have obliterated shareholder value twice now. Not a good record at all. The first wipe-out was the worst. Retail property might be a buy at some point, but we are not at that point yet in my view.

Remember this was £8 a share in 2007....grim!