Capital & Regional Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 25/10/2019 14:43

IC makes an interesting point that had passed me by - the Growthpoint deal, when all done, will reduce NAV to 44p. Considering that NAV is falling fast (with a way to go IMO), makes the 33p offer look even better for shareholders.

[swindon41] 22/10/2019 14:23

Congratulations to those loading up when share price in teens.......didn't myself because of sentiment against them and M'ment esp a CEO who seems hellbent on personal ego battles eg against the people and community of Luton and now the local Council where he's taking recent planning decision to Judicial Review.....this will cause damage to local services because it will cost the council many hundreds of thousands of pounds....all now probably irrelevant to the short term prospects for the market cap and sp, as this offer underpins a share price of about 25p, but probably little upside from here on in as wider macro prospects look dreadful imho. GLA wether you are long or not

[spectoacc] 21/10/2019 21:09

Posts 181, 189 - keep up, Hugepants :)

[hugepants] 21/10/2019 19:29

Some call you made on this Spec! Still think its going to zero?

[spectoacc] 19/10/2019 13:26

Indeed. The first one seems to be the worst, for being permanent. Going to take a long time to work through.

[topvest] 18/10/2019 19:42

Trouble is retail shopping has two headwinds to contend with:
1. Technological change, in itself a killer; and
2. A high chance of a global recession in the next year or two.

[spectoacc] 18/10/2019 15:31

I'm a fan of NRR.

Arguably Growthpoint are doing well to gain control for what - an average of about 28p? Assuming they can fund the debt overhangs, which they no doubt can.

D4E was the alternative IMO.

Retail reminds me of Bill Gates' maxim about technology - "Overestimate the next two years, underestimate the next ten".

Been seeing a few savage NAV markdowns on retail - c.30% on shopping centres in a half year, c.6% on retail on a quarter. Agree there's plenty more pain to come, but hopefully some winners along the way too.

Suspect people underestimate how connected retail stuff is - lose your High St M&S, lose a vast amount of footfall for everyone else.

[pejaten] 18/10/2019 15:15

In the offer RNS they mention that a 1p dividend will be paid before the offer becomes effective

[tiltonboy] 18/10/2019 14:56

Specto, just a poor PA position after meeting the manager a year or so ago. Bought a few more at 20p to give me an average of 40p.

I followed your logic, but never felt it was as bad as you made it out to be. Clearly Growthpoint thought there was value there. I made a nice turn in NRR, so my net position over two punts is a small negative.

[topvest] 18/10/2019 14:35

For what its worth, I think retail shopping centres have a load more CVAs and administrations around the corner. When these assets are purchased with debt and LTV is not below 20%, total wipe-out is around the corner. The board have done very well to secure this deal. Remember though that CAL have obliterated shareholder value twice now. Not a good record at all. The first wipe-out was the worst. Retail property might be a buy at some point, but we are not at that point yet in my view.

Remember this was £8 a share in 2007....grim!

[spectoacc] 18/10/2019 13:49

Not sure I knew you were in it @tiltonboy!

Yes, I guess even now, a few years down the line CAL could still be gone. But this offer just seems a massive boon to shareholders to me - what was CAL worth without it? 1p?

INTU the next to survive or dive. The Whitaker angle makes it a very interesting one.

[tiltonboy] 18/10/2019 13:40

I will Tender my entire holding at 33p, and hope i get a few extra ones away. A fairly big cut for me, but it could have been worse. Thankfully the Specto scenario is less likely to occur now...but of course could still happen.

Undecided on what to do with the balance.

[topvest] 18/10/2019 12:52

Well I've sold out. Only a very small holding for me..originally purchased in 2008, so I have lost money twice from doubling up in various open offers. Taken a few dividends along the way, but one of my worst ever property investments! To be honest, its a relief to delete the evidence from my portfolio!

I can't see this recovering much, if at all, to be honest. Shopping centres will need reinventing, but I don't think these guys will win!

[2wild] 18/10/2019 11:17

Has anyone noticed if they declared the interim dividend? They advised a decision was on hold until the outcome of a possible offer was known, but I did not spot any mention yesterday.

[spectoacc] 17/10/2019 08:26

Agreed, think this is much better than CAL shareholders could have hoped for. Yes, someone else takes control of the co despite only buying c.51% of it, but you can dump 30% of your holding at 33p (and, arguably, the rest in the market at c.25p). Great result when 1p seemed far more likely.

Not so great for the vast majority who'll be in far higher, but much better than it could/should have been.

[topvest] 17/10/2019 08:23

Deal done. Partial offer at 33p with new capital at 25p. Not too bad.

[2wild] 12/9/2019 16:14

Yes and someone knew about it late June.

[tiltonboy] 12/9/2019 14:49

They've had a takeover approach!

[2wild] 12/9/2019 14:30

Up 47% since my last post no. 140 in June. No smoke without fire!

[hugepants] 11/9/2019 13:24

Are the management that bad? Look at INTU paying massive dividends for years instead of reducing LTV.

[spectoacc] 11/9/2019 08:14

Given the very poor management here, surprised anyone would want to chuck money at them to keep them afloat - better to pick over the carcass when it went under (or come along Fosun-style when all hope is lost).

Interesting times tho, what with INTU getting interesting too.

[spectoacc] 11/9/2019 07:36

Interesting all the same - may well prevent CAL going to zero. Wonder why they're not just buying it down here tho... Unless the "subscription" is at eg 5p.

[tiltonboy] 11/9/2019 07:23

Cant see that being overly generous if it appears.

[gary1966] 11/9/2019 07:15

Good set of results with renewed rents at good premium to passing ones. Development aspect progressing well and sale shortly to bring in £5m that I assume will be used to pay down debt. Interesting announcement about possible partial cash offer and capital injection. Interesting to see price action today with NAV at year end of 51p.