Capital & Regional Share Discussion Threads

[cordwainer] 08/8/2019 15:59

... so the remaining 97% now have extra spending power of more than inflation ?

[spectoacc] 02/8/2019 13:42

To be fair, if it's the bottom, then fine - no covenant breaches, CAL pull through, lots of upside.

Who honestly thinks we've seen the worst? Average hourly earnings running at well above inflation, and 6 month footfall down over 3%! It's structural, doesn't take a genius to see it - have Numis heard of The Internet?

[tiltonboy] 02/8/2019 13:02

It's their updated forecast.

They believe we are close to the bottom in the cycle. No mention of covenant breaches.

Perhaps the land sale, and the residential conversion sale will buy them some time.

[spectoacc] 02/8/2019 09:11

Lol - that surely isn't a new forecast? Have they forecast debt/covenant breach too? ;)

[tiltonboy] 02/8/2019 09:07

Numis forecasting NAV of 44p for each of 2020 and 2021. Also forecasting INCREASED dividends...lol...

[spectoacc] 02/8/2019 07:34

CAL t/s this morning - the headlines at least - seems to read rather well, if not very well.

Have to dig down a bit to see the detail tho. Footfall "..Significantly outperform(ing)", is actually down 1.8% vs 3.6% nationally. [In 6 months!]

L4L rental income down another 3.1%.

And the vital one - NAV down 6.8% in 6 months, with regional assets down 11% and only London supporting it.

Annualised, that'd be nearly 14% p.a., or 22% pa without the London properties. Very little mention of covenants but, as the saying goes, "Do the math".

CAL - a co that should survive, just not as owned by shareholders IMO.

[spectoacc] 24/7/2019 06:48

They talk a good game it's true:
hxxps://capreg.com/our-portfolio/

But valuation falls, CVAs, divi cuts, debt, secondary locations.

[cordwainer] 23/7/2019 17:44

Haven't looked at the rest of the portfolio but as far as its not an out-of-town car park with a debenhams / house of fraser led setup, Walthamstow description didn't look all that bad - more like non-prime local convenience and even a bit mixed use, not quite so much 'Dawn of the Dead'.

[spectoacc] 23/7/2019 15:53

Said it lots of times above - CAL are going to zero IMO, or as near to zero as makes no difference. Retail assets getting sufficiently marked down to have them breaching banking covs within 2 years I reckon.

If I'm wrong, then definitely - they'd be worth a multiple of current s/p.

Counting against is dreadful management, no realistic way of reducing debt, tired, legacy assets. The fire could even help them - take the insurance payout and ditch the mall.

I hold NRR, wouldn't mind them picking over the carcass (the winners will be those who buy from distressed sellers) but no way they'd want the debt here.

INTU, HMSO, and others in the same boat. Have a little tickle on BLND as at least the largest ones should survive, and have enough fingers in other pies - and some way still to raise cash. CAL management had heads in sand the whole way down.

A telling lack of any director buying.

[cordwainer] 23/7/2019 15:29

Any chance of offers from e.g. NRR or INTU ? Potentially a recovery punt here, not sure I'm brave enough tho. Even in worst case scenario of a total writedown of Walthamstow, I guesstimated yesterday in my head that there's approx a 40% discount to NTAV (or was it EPRA NAV?). Might even have thrown in some extra economic and sentimental depreciation, cant remember. No time today to look into it again. Temptingly cheap medium term play if you believe in the management and strategy i thought anyway.

[propinv] 22/7/2019 15:36

Look at Ocado. Insurance investigation found that staff turned off sprinklers. You can bet your bottom dollar that as an absolute minimum the insurance co will want an investigation and will cling on to any errors made by co. Of course, there may be none.

[cordwainer] 22/7/2019 15:19

Disastrous for Walthamstow community and a kick in the teeth for CAL, it looks like this shopping centre was on the cusp of proving or at least realising CAL's central strategy.

[zccax77] 22/7/2019 13:28

What are the chances of management pocketing the insurance money and then selling off the land for development. All money going towardss reducing Ltv?

[zccax77] 22/7/2019 13:28

What are the chances of management pocketing the insurance money and then selling off the land for development. All money going towardss reducing Ltv?

[propinv] 22/7/2019 12:06

Specto - it's going to drop value short term though

[zccax77] 22/7/2019 11:34

This is great news, opportunity for change of use with the insurance proceeds

[spectoacc] 22/7/2019 11:27

Not sure that isn't a good thing for CAL - and there's no bigger bear on the mf'ers than me. Insurance payout, shops closed?

...Although knowing how bad CAL's management is, I'd want to check they had the policy up to date.

[propinv] 22/7/2019 11:26

Shopping centre on fire in Walthamstow!

[karv1] 26/6/2019 13:28

Hi all are all the 7 locations that are owned out right are they freeholds, I read somewhere that 3 of them are leased is this correct? If so do they pay much and would this limit future uses.

[apollocreed1] 25/6/2019 15:18

I bought CAL last August after reading a positive broker's report from Berenberg. Well that's just another nail in the coffin for brokers. They really know nothing! But if you want to be amused by their incompetence, here is the article:

[...]

[zccax77] 25/6/2019 09:42

Why even pay a dividend. This is company in distress ffs. World class BOD. The income is going to drop off a cliff.

[zccax77] 25/6/2019 09:42

Why even pay a dividend. This is company in distress ffs. World class BOD. The income is going to drop off a cliff.

[spectoacc] 25/6/2019 07:56

They did cut the divi, but not by enough IMO. Management are total head-in-sand kn*bheads IMO.

70% max headroom sounds mighty generous already!

[hugepants] 25/6/2019 07:48

Can CAL increase the headroom on the covenants?
I can only assume not. Otherwise why would they still be paying a big dividend?

[spectoacc] 25/6/2019 07:28

@zccax77 - round my way, the major issue is that a few go bust/CVA, stand empty, but the remaining couple might be on say 5-10 year leases which the landlord can't determine. So stuck with a chronic empty rates bill, the missing rent, but no option to redevelop unless pay the remaining few to go.

I've used this one as an example before:


McD's are going nowhere, Argos & maybe Home Bargains too - but no one's taking the empty ones, and the others may disappear as footfall drops. Huge empty rates, massive rent gaps, no redevelopment possible. Any they do get let will be on pathetically low rents compared to the boom times.