Capital & Regional Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 18/10/2019 12:49

Not sure I knew you were in it @tiltonboy!

Yes, I guess even now, a few years down the line CAL could still be gone. But this offer just seems a massive boon to shareholders to me - what was CAL worth without it? 1p?

INTU the next to survive or dive. The Whitaker angle makes it a very interesting one.

[tiltonboy] 18/10/2019 12:40

I will Tender my entire holding at 33p, and hope i get a few extra ones away. A fairly big cut for me, but it could have been worse. Thankfully the Specto scenario is less likely to occur now...but of course could still happen.

Undecided on what to do with the balance.

[topvest] 18/10/2019 11:52

Well I've sold out. Only a very small holding for me..originally purchased in 2008, so I have lost money twice from doubling up in various open offers. Taken a few dividends along the way, but one of my worst ever property investments! To be honest, its a relief to delete the evidence from my portfolio!

I can't see this recovering much, if at all, to be honest. Shopping centres will need reinventing, but I don't think these guys will win!

[2wild] 18/10/2019 10:17

Has anyone noticed if they declared the interim dividend? They advised a decision was on hold until the outcome of a possible offer was known, but I did not spot any mention yesterday.

[spectoacc] 17/10/2019 07:26

Agreed, think this is much better than CAL shareholders could have hoped for. Yes, someone else takes control of the co despite only buying c.51% of it, but you can dump 30% of your holding at 33p (and, arguably, the rest in the market at c.25p). Great result when 1p seemed far more likely.

Not so great for the vast majority who'll be in far higher, but much better than it could/should have been.

[topvest] 17/10/2019 07:23

Deal done. Partial offer at 33p with new capital at 25p. Not too bad.

[2wild] 12/9/2019 15:14

Yes and someone knew about it late June.

[tiltonboy] 12/9/2019 13:49

They've had a takeover approach!

[2wild] 12/9/2019 13:30

Up 47% since my last post no. 140 in June. No smoke without fire!

[hugepants] 11/9/2019 12:24

Are the management that bad? Look at INTU paying massive dividends for years instead of reducing LTV.

[spectoacc] 11/9/2019 07:14

Given the very poor management here, surprised anyone would want to chuck money at them to keep them afloat - better to pick over the carcass when it went under (or come along Fosun-style when all hope is lost).

Interesting times tho, what with INTU getting interesting too.

[spectoacc] 11/9/2019 06:36

Interesting all the same - may well prevent CAL going to zero. Wonder why they're not just buying it down here tho... Unless the "subscription" is at eg 5p.

[tiltonboy] 11/9/2019 06:23

Cant see that being overly generous if it appears.

[gary1966] 11/9/2019 06:15

Good set of results with renewed rents at good premium to passing ones. Development aspect progressing well and sale shortly to bring in £5m that I assume will be used to pay down debt. Interesting announcement about possible partial cash offer and capital injection. Interesting to see price action today with NAV at year end of 51p.

[cordwainer] 08/8/2019 14:59

... so the remaining 97% now have extra spending power of more than inflation ?

[spectoacc] 02/8/2019 12:42

To be fair, if it's the bottom, then fine - no covenant breaches, CAL pull through, lots of upside.

Who honestly thinks we've seen the worst? Average hourly earnings running at well above inflation, and 6 month footfall down over 3%! It's structural, doesn't take a genius to see it - have Numis heard of The Internet?

[tiltonboy] 02/8/2019 12:02

It's their updated forecast.

They believe we are close to the bottom in the cycle. No mention of covenant breaches.

Perhaps the land sale, and the residential conversion sale will buy them some time.

[spectoacc] 02/8/2019 08:11

Lol - that surely isn't a new forecast? Have they forecast debt/covenant breach too? ;)

[tiltonboy] 02/8/2019 08:07

Numis forecasting NAV of 44p for each of 2020 and 2021. Also forecasting INCREASED dividends...lol...

[spectoacc] 02/8/2019 06:34

CAL t/s this morning - the headlines at least - seems to read rather well, if not very well.

Have to dig down a bit to see the detail tho. Footfall "..Significantly outperform(ing)", is actually down 1.8% vs 3.6% nationally. [In 6 months!]

L4L rental income down another 3.1%.

And the vital one - NAV down 6.8% in 6 months, with regional assets down 11% and only London supporting it.

Annualised, that'd be nearly 14% p.a., or 22% pa without the London properties. Very little mention of covenants but, as the saying goes, "Do the math".

CAL - a co that should survive, just not as owned by shareholders IMO.

[spectoacc] 24/7/2019 05:48

They talk a good game it's true:
hxxps://capreg.com/our-portfolio/

But valuation falls, CVAs, divi cuts, debt, secondary locations.

[cordwainer] 23/7/2019 16:44

Haven't looked at the rest of the portfolio but as far as its not an out-of-town car park with a debenhams / house of fraser led setup, Walthamstow description didn't look all that bad - more like non-prime local convenience and even a bit mixed use, not quite so much 'Dawn of the Dead'.

[spectoacc] 23/7/2019 14:53

Said it lots of times above - CAL are going to zero IMO, or as near to zero as makes no difference. Retail assets getting sufficiently marked down to have them breaching banking covs within 2 years I reckon.

If I'm wrong, then definitely - they'd be worth a multiple of current s/p.

Counting against is dreadful management, no realistic way of reducing debt, tired, legacy assets. The fire could even help them - take the insurance payout and ditch the mall.

I hold NRR, wouldn't mind them picking over the carcass (the winners will be those who buy from distressed sellers) but no way they'd want the debt here.

INTU, HMSO, and others in the same boat. Have a little tickle on BLND as at least the largest ones should survive, and have enough fingers in other pies - and some way still to raise cash. CAL management had heads in sand the whole way down.

A telling lack of any director buying.

[cordwainer] 23/7/2019 14:29

Any chance of offers from e.g. NRR or INTU ? Potentially a recovery punt here, not sure I'm brave enough tho. Even in worst case scenario of a total writedown of Walthamstow, I guesstimated yesterday in my head that there's approx a 40% discount to NTAV (or was it EPRA NAV?). Might even have thrown in some extra economic and sentimental depreciation, cant remember. No time today to look into it again. Temptingly cheap medium term play if you believe in the management and strategy i thought anyway.