Capita Share Discussion Threads

[captain kod] 16/9/2020 16:51

Wow actually finished blue for once!

[aljm] 16/9/2020 16:09

lot of big trades today, thinking they might have been sells they have been dribbling into the market for last week or two ?

[feelthepain] 16/9/2020 14:54

Maybe the lack of communication is good. Previous updates have done little to inspire.

[dealy] 16/9/2020 12:07

it's the lack of communication that is the killer

[pyglet] 16/9/2020 10:30

What a POS this is.

[pyglet] 15/9/2020 16:53

Squeaky bum time, although I think we have reached the bottom. If you sell now SIMS will be sold tomorrow- hahaha

[dealy] 15/9/2020 08:30

srock knocked back on any attempt to recover

[big_brown_bare] 14/9/2020 14:26

£500M - £700M is the estimate for ESSChanges the debt scenario completely.

[notknowing] 14/9/2020 14:10

60p by Christmas. Disposal news just around the corner.

[dealy] 14/9/2020 13:59

G4S got a takeover bid this morning. Normally this would boost other service providers but we know how dysfunctional this market is

[big_brown_bare] 14/9/2020 11:55

Another article:Exclusive: iSAMS shareholders explore sale options as Capita SIMS auction triggers wave of consolidation in MIS marketThe auction of iSAMS will be launched against a backdrop in which numerous UK-based MIS providers are exploring sales, mergers and capital raises.This week, EducationInvestor Global exclusively reported that Bain Capital and TPG Capital had tabled first-round bids for London-listed Capita's Education Software Solutions (ESS) unit, which encompasses SIMS, an MIS provider used by around 80% of UK schools. Capita ESS is expected to fetch upwards of £500 million at auctionhttps://www.educationinvestor.co.uk/ShowArticle.aspx?

[dealy] 14/9/2020 05:49

This is very positive but what infuriates me is that there is no news from the company and the stock just drifts down to an all time low

[big_brown_bare] 13/9/2020 21:50

This publication has learnt that Bain Capital and TPG Capital are among several bidders vying over control of Capita ESS – whose SIMS platform is the UK's largest school management information system (MIS) provider – which is expected to fetch upwards of £500 million.The values of the offers being placed by Bain and TPG are unclear.According to multiple sources, bankers at Goldman Sachs, which is marshalling the sale of Capita ESS, set today, 1 September, as the deadline for first-round bids.One insider said that Montagu Private Equity, a European buyout house which in March acquired a stake in university operator Galileo Global Education, had been "very keen" on Capita ESS – though it was unclear whether it would also be mounting a bid.Another source said that "I would be surprised if more than three or four bidders make it into the second round" – suggesting stiff competition among a small number of suitors could ensue. An insider said that TPG had hired advisors in August to help it formulate a bid. Bain is expected to draft in advisors next week, if it progresses into the second round, a source said.A spokesperson for Bain declined to comment. TPG and Goldman Sachs had not responded to requests for comment at the time of publication.

[dealy] 13/9/2020 08:42

I absolutely believe in this company. This business is all about build critical mass and they are a major player. I also think a company like Serco will try to merge with it

[owlbaby] 12/9/2020 18:28

Captain Kod

it is the scale & gaps that are scary.

i'm in this share bcs that employee base delivered good & predictable results almost in spite of poor management decisions at non operational level for years. core unglamorous business of back office + tech has resilient value IMO but it looks even worse managed now.

as for £11m - the "order book" in June was 1.2bn (ie contracted value of services underway), that would be a guess of £33m each month will be earned if contracts are over 36ms average. CPI plans to do 3.5bn revenue in YE20 with 1.7bn achieve at HE so 1.8m in 6mths to Dec. 198m = 33 x 6 may come from order book & 1.6m to be won. Some of the £1.6 would be from retail or repeating businesses not eligible to announce (say volume driven extras on LT contracts or run of the mill consultancy work) but lets say £0.8m? should be from announce-able wins particularly as the turnaround strategy is to refocus on higher value specialisms.

the £11m figure highlights the gaps.

They should be doing 3 times more every month on LT contracts to stand still blended with actual NEW business wins that will generate that £0.8m? revenue on refocus into higher margin, higher value adding specialisms to be earned (i.e delivered & completed) BEFORE 31 Dec. A £50m win would take some months to deliver & we are in Sept. reading a £11m LT contract renewal & about app releases without an assignable monetary value

their solution is to rationalise locations & staff further. or perhaps get through to December when their 3 year contracts end - that's a thought that might scare a shorter

GL to y, this business has a got a good motor but super structure it carries hasn't done it any favours

[jaspoland] 12/9/2020 14:13

Dealy, I've spent some time looking at your posts on CPI. You seem very disappointed/frustrated that the share price is where it is. I will ask you one question is the reason why you invested in CPI still valid? If so continue to hold/buy. If the reasons are no longer valid then sell. It is simple.
There are many other companies that you can invest in that will likely increase.
I've only just taken a position in CPI a few days ago but I'm very familiar with the work they do. I see opportunities which may take years to turnaround but I'm prepared to wait. Is CPI worth more than 29p? I think so hence why I'm here.


Good luck with what you decide

[dealy] 12/9/2020 13:10

Nevertheless, there seems to be no interest on the part of management to stop the share price collapse

[jaspoland] 12/9/2020 09:27

Dealy chill out. For the time being it looks like the continuous fall in share price has stopped. This will likely trade around late 20's early 30's until news dictates otherwise. Obviously if the markets tumble then we could see low 20's or even late teens. That's the risk. Upside long term has to be the play which is why I'm building a position on weakness around current prices.

It's a recovery play which is going to take more than a week to play out

[dealy] 12/9/2020 08:42

I really think I'm going to start despairing over this stock. It's like management could care less about the share price

[dealy] 11/9/2020 15:59

no announcements on change of holdings for weeks. its just a low volume drift

[aljm] 11/9/2020 15:49

every day this week buys outweigh sells, every day marked down.....

[dealy] 11/9/2020 09:51

why the lack of interest here? unbelievable

[captain kod] 10/9/2020 21:08

Why is that scary? Would you prefer them not to win new contracts? Not to take on business? Perhaps just give up on the 61,000 employees that Capita has so that the share price crashes even further? At least the people shorting the share and trying to scare off investors would make lots of money??!!

[owlbaby] 10/9/2020 18:42

News

The combined value for all contract renewals is £11m and they will run to March 2023.


that would be £366k pm if that is 30 months

CPI has a turnover of £3.5 bn in 12mths or £292m pm

366,000/292,000,000 is 0.13 of 1%

like out of £100 of existing revenue it would be 13p that has been renewed/not lost & the profit on it might be 2p with luck but it is newsworthy on the scale of materiality CPI currently has. scary, eh? & there is stuff mounting to deduct from the profit. scary.