Cambria Automobiles Share Discussion Threads

[effortless cool] 01/2/2020 19:10

Leven accounting information is found here:

[effortless cool] 01/2/2020 18:50

I have updated the header to reflect the acquit ion of Leven Cars Group announced on 21 January. This brings Rolls Royce into the franchise portfolio, as well a fourth Aston Martin franchise. This represents Cambria's entry into the Scottish market and the business they have bought is the only outlet for Aston Martin and Rolls Royce in Scotland.

Leven is a significant acquisition, with revenues of £46.7m in the year to 31 December 2017. The 2018 revenue is not available, as the accounting year was extended and then the business was put into administration. I have assumed a reduction of 15% against the 2017 revenue for my projections, as Cambria actions its strategy of increasing gross margin at the expense of revenue.

My forecasts for 2020 are quite similar to broker consensus but both my top-line and bottom-line forecasts for 2021 are more optimistic. I am confident they are, in fact, the more realistic of the two sets of figures.

[mortimer7] 21/1/2020 08:37

Indeed, I was a little sceptical of the timing when they moved towards the high end premium franchises, but they've been proved correct so far.

[jaf111] 21/1/2020 07:52

I continue to back the management of Cambria....Mark Lavery has an excellent track record.

Therefore I am certainly very pleased with today's acquisition news....

[essentialinvestor] 13/1/2020 09:18

They have some beautiful cars in stock.

[effortless cool] 12/1/2020 20:03

I have updated the header with my revised forecasts based on the AGM trading statement. I reduced my revenue forecasts as a result of this, but increased my gross margins. Valuation has improved slightly.

I am puzzled by the changes made by the brokers. They have increased revenue but decreased profits and, hence, most likely have assumed lower gross margins. The broker consensus revenue for 2020 is up 3.8% on the prior year, yet the trading update has new car units down 9.4%, used car units up 2.0% and after sales revenue up 1.9%. Whilst new car mix has improved towards higher value vehicles, an increase at the level suggested is a big ask.

Further, the trading statement emphasises improved new car profit per unit and that used car profit has improved over the prior year, so how can net profit be projected lower?

[mortimer7] 06/1/2020 09:20

SMMT Figures published this morning show the number of new car units registered in the UK in December increased by 3.4% compared to December 2018. (148,997 vs 144,089).
The total number registered in 2019 was 2,311,140 compared to 2,367,147 in 2018.

SMMT Commentary "Despite the overall decline in 2019, the UK car market remains the second biggest in the EU, behind Germany. It is also one of the most diverse, with buyers able to choose from some 350 different models available in various fuel types and body styles to suit all driving needs. With nearly 90 exciting new generation models – 23 of them zero emission cars and 11 plug-in hybrids – set to make their showroom debuts in 2020, and some compelling deals on offer, the industry is committed to new technology that will benefit consumers and the broader environment".

[jaf111] 02/1/2020 17:29

Purring nicely.....

AGM / trading update due 9 January.

Will be most interested to hear what signs of any recent pick-up in interest in sector.

Certainly last year's performance was extremely impressive and very much hoping that their strong performance on the back of franchise changes will continue this year.

[effortless cool] 28/12/2019 16:53

After a long (two years, nine months) gap, I have finally caught up with my modelling here, with the header updated accordingly.

The honest truth is that I let the model updates drop because my forecasts were not working very well. The unpredictable revenues, low margins and changes in product mix make forecasting very challenging.

Nonetheless, I thought it worth another try ....

[hiraniha] 17/12/2019 15:07

I bought in at 70 pence.This one is clearly the best of the lot.

[mortimer7] 05/12/2019 09:06

SMMT Figures published this morning show the number of new car units registered in the UK in November fell slightly by 1.3% versus November 2018. Total units registered were 156,621 versus 158,639 last November.

[mortimer7] 20/11/2019 09:20

Outstanding performance in the context of the UK economic & political issues.
Showing the likes of Pendragon & Lookers how to do it.

[effortless cool] 20/11/2019 09:15

Yes, very good results in a sector where many peers are floundering.

This company is, in my opinion, extremely underappreciated.

[jaf111] 20/11/2019 07:27

Read the results.......WOW!

[mortimer7] 05/11/2019 11:40

This morning, SMMT published the unit numbers for new cars registered in the UK in October. The total was 143,251 a fall of 6.7% compared to October 2018 when the total was 153,599.

[mortimer7] 04/10/2019 09:14

SMMT have issued the new car registration unit numbers for September 2019 this morning, which shows a 1.6% increase compared to September 2018.
Total 343,255 versus 338,834.

September 2018 total was unusually low due to the implementation of WLTP regulations, so whilst up this year, in context the result is not all that good.

[mortimer7] 05/9/2019 09:10

SMMT have issued the new car registration unit numbers for August 2019 this morning, which show a 1.6% drop compared to August 2018. Total units 92,573 versus 94,094 LY.
After February, August is the UK's quietest month for registrations so the numbers in isolation aren't too significant.

[mortimer7] 04/9/2019 08:01

Great Trading update, Well summed up EC & JAF.

[jaf111] 04/9/2019 07:30

Have to say that I was surprised, but very impressed, with the TS.....Well done management.

Clearly a very interesting sector at present with 2 quality companies (CAMB and MMH) showing the market leaders (PDG and LOOK) how to do it!!

[effortless cool] 04/9/2019 07:23

A great update from CAMB this morning:

"The Group's trading performance in the first eleven-months of the current financial year to July 2019 has been significantly ahead of the corresponding period in 2018 and is therefore expected to be ahead of current market expectations for the financial year ended 31 August 2019".



Their tactical response to the current malaise in the new car market - selling fewer vehicles at higher margins - is paying off handsomely, and their strategy of moving the brand mix upmarket - in particular entering the High Luxury Segment - is proving very wise.

[mortimer7] 05/8/2019 09:11

SMMT have issued the new car registration unit numbers for July 2019 this morning, which shows a 4.1% drop compared to July 2018. Total 157,198 versus 163,898.

[effortless cool] 04/7/2019 09:21

Thanks, Mortimer. Your monthly updates on the SMMT figures are always appreciated.