||EPS - Basic
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Cambria Automobiles Share Discussion Threads
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|Records tumble as March UK new car market hits all-time high...
New car registration unit stats issued today by SMMT show 562,337 new cars were registered in March 2017. A new record month, 8.4% up on March 2016.
Registration have now jumped 6.2% in Q1 2017 to 820,016 units, a new record quarter.
Undoubtedly these figures are boosted by consumers & businesses reacting to new tax changes effective from 1st April, pulling forward purchases into March.|
|Header updated with reforecast to reflect the pre-close trading update. Still a STRONG BUY for me.|
|Exactly. Real point I'd do you trust the forecasts. RNS today points to substantial outperformance|
|That's exactly right, hence the lowly valuation.However, I expect them to continue to beat forecasts and to throw off a lot of cash.|
|surely cant be right rimmy....basically no eps growth over next couple of years!|
|N1 singer 8.2p Zeus 8.3p for 2017 and 2018 is 8.5p.|
|Decent Trading Update.....
The Group has maintained its momentum from the strong results delivered in the last financial year and its trading performance in the first five months of the current financial year has been substantially ahead of the corresponding period in 2015/16, both on a total and like-for-like basis.
2016 underlying eps were 8.33p - does anyone one have updated broker forecasts?|
|SMMT have published their new car registration figures for the month of February 2017 this morning.
A total of 83,115 units were registered compared to 83,395 in February 2016, a slight drop of 0.3% year on year, but 2017 YTD still ahead of 2016.
February along with August being the 2 months for least registrations in the UK & therefore fairly insignificant in terms of gauging market trend.|
|We are mightily encouraged by management’s stated focus on ‘Return on Equity'.
Focusing on this metric is a sign of a company which is at least trying to allocate capital responsibly – unfortunately, there are many poor-quality companies which fail to fulfil this basic responsibility.|
|1. Good spot - must be a typo.
2. They don't really give any indication on this.|
|I am just reading the YE 31 August 2016 Annual Report. I wondered if those who know the company and industry well could kindly answer two questions?
1. Note 22 (d) at the bottom of page 54 gives the impact of “an increase of 0.5 basis points in interest rates”. From the table, such an increase would decrease profit by £211,000. There are 100 basis points in 1%, right? If yes, i calculate that a 1% increase in interest rates would hit the P&L with a £42.2 million decrease in profit. Wow! Have i screwed up somewhere? Or is 0.5 basis points a typo and should read 0.5%.
2. I could not find any breakdown of the £58.4 Administrative expenses. I assume this includes all the staff costs (£38.7m). If not, how do they get to such a large figure? If correct, does anybody have any calculation (could be approximate) of how the Gross Profit per revenue stream (new sales, used sales, after sales) looks like after staff costs have been allocated and deducted?|
|They do look good appointments; complementary skill sets to the operational expertise of the executives.|
|The two non exec appointments today seems to have caught the attention more than the SMMT figures yesterday|
|Indeed. SMMT narrative today is stating "some cooling is anticipated over the coming months".
And also "but provided interest rates remain low and the economy stable, the market is in a good position to withstand its short-term challenges".|
|That's certainly a good start to the year, given that SMMT were forecasting a 5% fall in new car sales in 2017.|
|SMMT have published their new car registration figures for the month of Jnauary 2017 this morning.
A total of 174,564 units were registered compared to 169,678 in January 2016.
Within this total figure, private registrations led the growth, registering 76,729 new cars – up 5.0% on January 2016.
The increase in private regns is a significant point for Cambria as their new car sales are predominantly in to this sector as opposed to Fleet.|
|If my local Ford dealer is anything to go by, main dealers are fighting back to keep servicing and repair business. I get a 10% discount on parts with my loyalty card, reminders for service and MOT, courtesy car and valet thrown in for free and free breakdown cover contracted out to AA which lasts a year after the service. All things considered good value I think.|
|Shares mag Are motor retailers out of gas "analysts highlight the prospect of a strong March as demand is pulled forward ahead of changes to Vehicle Excise Duty (road tax) due to be implemented on 1 April, which will lead to a more onerous charging structure.
This, argues the broker, could provide a re-rating catalyst for underrated players including Lookers (LOOK), boastng one of the broadest spreads of brands in the industry, successful
buy and build Vertu Motors (VTU:AIM) and the ambitous Cambria Automobiles (CAMB:AIM), where savvy CEO Mark Lavery has plenty of ‘skin" in the game with a 40% stake."|
|This will work...Http://www.david-wilmshurst.co.uk/camb/camb_data.htm|
|Might be of interest to some:
I find the cash flow charts particularly helpful in understanding companies.
Link amended 05/02/17|
|Looks like someone has sold a big chunk this morning: 500k @ 61.5p.|
|I have updated the header with my revised forecasts following the trading statement and added some more information on broker consensus figures.
Some historical updates have been move to post 1 - I will just show the three most recent in the header, otherwise it will become stupidly long.|
|davidosh - by car companies do you mean dealers?|
|Pre registration is not a bad thing and indeed is essential to efficient stock managment. maximising margins and agreeing good financing terms with OEMs. The problem is SMMT figures show cars registered not sold and the figures are certainly open to manipulation. High figures can indicate a lot of supply being pushed onto the market and the hope is current figures are a fair reflection of end consumer demand. Its obviously a problem is unscrupulous / inefficient companies preregister a load of cars to secure sales bonuses and record them as sales when in fact they are just sat on the forecourt. These then may need to be shifted at reduced prices damaging residual values for everyone. Its a shame all retailers across the sector are not more open about their registration policies and don't provide more data on efficiency metrics like stock turnover periods etc.D|