Cambria Automobiles Share Discussion Threads

[mortimer7] 04/10/2018 09:05

The UK new car market fell by -20.5% in September, according to the latest figures released today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). 338,834 vehicles were registered in the month, down around 87,000 on the previous year as new testing requirements continue to affect supply and distort the market

[mortimer7] 06/8/2018 09:18

SMMT released the figures for UK new car registrations for July 2018 this morning.
Total number of units registered was 163,898 an increase of 1.2% compared to July 2017 total of 161,997.

[mortimer7] 05/7/2018 09:11

SMMT released the figures for UK new car registrations for June 2018 this morning.
Total number of units registered was 234,945 a decrease of 3.5% compared to June 2017 total of 243,454.

The drop off was attributable mainly towards the Fleet Sales sector (down 6.4%), with private regns only down a notional 0.6%.
(Cambria focus mainly on private retail sales).

[mortimer7] 05/6/2018 10:11

You're correct - month on month comparisons with 2017 are a little skewed at the moment. May 2017 buying was said to be affected by uncertainty in the lead up to the general election and, similarly, the actual election on 8/6/17 affected June.

Maybe a more accurate comparison is the total registrations for the 5 months YTD, January to May year on year:

2013 948,666
2014 1,058,974
2015 1,119,072
2016 1,164,870
2017 1,158,357
2018 1,079,049

[effortless cool] 05/6/2018 09:30

That's interesting, M7, although I guess that May last year was also impacted by the pull forward of demand into March. I suspect that June will give us a more reliable comparative.

[mortimer7] 05/6/2018 09:07

SMMT released the figures for UK new car registrations for May 2018 this morning.
Total number of units registered was 192,649 an increase of 3.45 compared to May 2017 total of 186,265.
Private demand in the month grew by 10.1%, with more than 83,000 consumers driving home in a new car, and offsetting ongoing declines in the business and fleet sectors, down -9.6% and -0.7% respectively.

[mortimer7] 04/5/2018 10:06

JAF - you're correct. To give a little context, the combined figures for March & April:
2017 714,413 Units
2018 641,980 Units

Cambria interim results due on Tuesday. In the last 6 months the share price has under performed compared to their peers (Pendragon, Vertu, Lookers, Marshalls), so hopefully there'll be a correction soon.

[jaf111] 04/5/2018 09:24

As with the last month (or 2) these figures rather meaningless due to the upheaval caused by the vehicle tax changes in March 2017.....

Notwithstanding this, still overweight in car dealers, and no plans to change!

[mortimer7] 04/5/2018 09:17

This morning SMMT have issued their figures for new car registrations for the month of April. Total regns were 167,911 compared to 152,076 in April last year.
A total increase of 10.4%.

[mortimer7] 05/4/2018 09:09

SMMT issued their figures for new car registrations for the month of March this morning. Total regns were 474,069 compared to 562,337 in March last year.
SMMT CEO commented:
"March’s decline is not unexpected given the huge surge in registrations in the same month last year. Despite this, the market itself is relatively high with the underlying factors in terms of consumer choice, finance availability and cost of ownership all highly competitive"

[mortimer7] 04/4/2018 16:29

March new car registration figures out in the morning - new plate change month. Guess it won't make good reading compared to 2017 when March was a bumper month, mainly due to loads of registrations being pulled forward to avoid the new tax changes effective from 1st April 2017.
Also this March had less working days with Easter Hols starting in March as opposed to April last year & finally the terrible weather probably had an adverse impact as well.

However, with over 70% of Cambria GP coming from Used Vehicles & Aftersales, the reality is this shouldn't impact much in the short term.

[lullabite] 06/3/2018 17:41

2 questions 1. In regards to the online car sales (like it is happening in retail ) this would destroy Cambria business how do you look at this Risk ? 2. A possible decline in new car sales due to the new car sharing services (car to go , rent a car etc ) for the Next 5 years , this would also destroy their business due to the operating leverage What do you think about these ?

[davebowler] 06/3/2018 09:54

Zeus;
Cambria has released a pre-close trading update confirming it continues to trade in line with expectations. While trading conditions remain difficult driven by uncertainty on a number of different levels, we remain confident in the medium-term investment case. The Group has a strong balance sheet and is well positioned to delivered shareholder value in our view.

Trading update: The Group’s trading performance in the first five months of the current financial year has been in line with the Board’s expectations, albeit behind the corresponding period in 2016/17, both on a total and like-for-like basis. This comes as no surprise to us given current sector trends, driven by uncertainty impacting consumer demand (in particularly diesel) with sterling uncertainty continuing to impact supply into the UK market in some quarters. We note the SMMT February data released yesterday showing new car registrations -2.8% (YTD -5.1%) with diesel registrations within this -23.5% (-24.9% YTD).

Trading themes: Operationally, the refurbishment of the Bentley businesses in Tunbridge Wells and Chelmsford have been completed efficiently and are establishing themselves in new facilities. The Hatfield site (comprising JLR/Maclaren/Aston Martin) has started construction, albeit on a slight delay due to planning, while the substantial temporary McLaren showroom on the same site started to actively trade at the end of January. During this period of activity with premium brands, the Group has closed a Honda, Alfa Romeo and Jeep dealerships alongside two body shop operations. New vehicle unit sales were -16.5% or -14.6% on a LFL basis, albeit gross profit per unit (GPPU) did improve due to premium mix to partially offset the volume declines. Used car volumes continue to perform relatively well with LFL in line with the prior period, albeit total unit sales were -6.8% due to site closures and refranchising activity. GPPU also continued to improve in this division. Aftersales also remained robust, with revenue +0.6% or LFL +6.1% with profitability +2.1% or +8.2% on a LFL basis excluding the site and body shop closures.

Forecasts: We are maintaining our trading forecast assumptions on the back of this update. We do anticipate strong medium-term profitability from Lamborghini, albeit we recognise it will take time for the order book to build from a new site. For H1 we have penciled in a H1 adjusted PBT of £4.6m, which compares to £5.6m last year representing a -17.4% YOY reduction.

Valuation: While trading conditions have no doubt got more difficult, we remain confident in the Cambria story longer term, and believe it remains well positioned to deliver £1bn+ of revenue over the medium term. As we are seeing across the sector at present, near term valuation multiples are depressed, and the current market capitalisation of the Group remains at odds with the >£80m invested freehold asset base within the Group.

[mortimer7] 05/3/2018 09:09

The UK new car market dipped in February, according to figures released today by the (SMMT). 80,805 new cars were registered, a 2.8% drop compared with February 2017 (83,115), in what is traditionally one of the quietest months of the year ahead of the March number plate change.
That said, it was still the 3rd highest February figure in the last 10 years behind 2016 & 2017.

[mortimer7] 05/2/2018 09:08

The UK new car market declined in the first month of the year, according to figures released today by the SMMT. 163,615 cars were driven off forecourts in January, a 6.3% fall compared with the same month in 2017 when 174,564 were registered.

[lullabite] 27/1/2018 17:21

Im only a bit concerned about the recent tendency yo adquire Big amounts of goodwill in acquisitions Thoughts on this ?

[effortless cool] 24/1/2018 19:15

Seems that a few have been convinced by Bossert's long thesis.

[eggbaconandbubble] 23/1/2018 17:22

If you think that's slow you should try having a conversation with a Texan ranch hand!

[lullabite] 23/1/2018 16:34

Ya the video was weird And he speaks really slow , apart from that i agree with his thesis And im very bullish with Cambria in the long term I Hope It gets cheaper so i can buy more of It (:

[effortless cool] 22/1/2018 14:33

I have added a link to the header.

[effortless cool] 22/1/2018 14:30

Many thanks, lullabite.

Well worth a view/listen (it's a slide show with voiceover). It's a bit disconcerting that he speaks like a robot and mispronounces just about every proper noun he is faced with, but Bossert sets out a compelling long-term investment case for Cambria. It's worth listening to the Q&A at the end, too.

[lullabite] 22/1/2018 10:49

Theres an investment thesis of Cambria by Alex bossert in youtube

[jaf111] 22/1/2018 10:02

Some reasonable sized trades going through today.....continuing much higher than average volume over the past week or so....share price remains pretty static......

Thoughts?